Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EDT
The blue section of the line in the above image represents the actual NBA salary cap (data via RealGM).
The orange section represents the projected cap for 2015-16 and 2016-17. The league projected a 2015-16 cap of $66.3 million, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com. In 2016-17 – when a new national TV contract kicks in – ESPN estimates a cap around $80 million, which is the figure I use here.
After years of steady growth followed by stagnancy until this year, the salary cap rocketing upward could cause all sorts of complications. Already, players – including LeBron James – are structuring their contracts to take advantage of the predicted high cap.
However, the NBA has other ideas.
Executives on lots of teams have gotten the sense from the league office that the NBA will try to smooth the increase of the cap level to minimize the impact of any massive one-year jump in revenue. Exactly how it would do that is unclear. The precise team salary cap — $58 million last season, $63 million this season — is tied to overall league revenues; the two rise and fall together. Players are guaranteed about 50 percent of the league’s “basketball-related income,” and the league and union set the cap figure so player salaries add up to a number in that 50 percent ballpark.
The league’s specific plan for smoothing out the cap increase is unclear, and in the end, it may opt against doing so at all. The players will receive their guaranteed 50 percent share of revenues regardless of any engineering.
There are a lot of roadblocks to smoothing the cap’s growth.
The cap is set by formula based on league-wide revenue. The only way, under the current rules, for the cap to be less is for revenues to be less.
Perhaps, the NBA could bargain with the National Basketball Players Association, offering a higher percentage of revenues in future years in exchange for the players getting a reduced cut in 2016-17. But only current players would be voting on that proposal, and they want the money coming in while they’re still in the league.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has suggested the NBA structure its new TV deal so the money arrives in strategic stages rather than too much at once, but that runs into a similar issue. I can’t see current owners deferring revenue they could get sooner than later just to keep some of it from the players.
Adam Silver has frequently called the players “partners” in the league’s growth. In the end, I think he’ll have to heed those words and watch the salary cap – and therefore, player salaries – suddenly soar as the owners get a huge influx of revenue.
It’s not a bad problem for anyone involved.
May 30, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Harden couldn’t do it all by himself.
May 30, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Oden was last seen with the Heat in 2014, but Memphis may have him in for a free agent workout next month.
May 30, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
May 30, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Report also says it’s expected that Wade and the Heat will work things out.
May 30, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
He played good defense in the conference finals, the numbers show.
May 30, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
He’s the frontrunner right now.
Doc Rivers on report that Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan had a falling out: ‘I can put this to rest: They get along great’
May 30, 2015, 12:01 AM EDT
It’s literally Rivers’ job to quash these types of rumors.
May 29, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Why should he?
May 29, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Sefolosha suffered a leg fracture during a police incident that kept him from participating in the playoffs.
May 29, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Would you pay $700 for two pairs of sneakers?
May 29, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Jeff Hornacek remains in charge, but there has been some shuffling among his assistants.
May 29, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
There are questions about the future of Josh Smith, Patrick Beverley and others with the team.
May 29, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
The two most popular players in the NBA this season (with Kevin Durant out) go head-to-head on the NBA’s biggest stage.
May 29, 2015, 5:29 PM EDT
Cleveland’s defense has looked better in the playoffs than it has all season, but starting next Thursday it will get the biggest test it has had all season.
May 29, 2015, 4:53 PM EDT
Skiles is a former Magic player from 1989 through 1994.
May 29, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
Ayesha Curry cooks, Stephen Curry tastes, and Riley Curry points out raspberry-sauce spills
May 29, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
Would hiring Thibodeau really a wise call by the Pelicans?
May 29, 2015, 3:09 PM EDT
The NBA needs to review this process going forward.
May 29, 2015, 2:14 PM EDT
Warriors guard passed, but not enough time had passed to determine his health
May 29, 2015, 1:25 PM EDT
Atlanta guard expected to miss 3-4 months
- PBT Extra with NBASavant.com: Number shows Matthew Dellavedova’s defensive value 1
- PBT Extra with NBASavant.com: Cleveland may want to cover Curry in the left corner 2
- It’s official: Scott Skiles hired as head coach of Orlando Magic 26
- PBT Podcast: Talking Thibodeau/Bulls divorce; future for Rockets, Hawks 0
- Warriors’ Klay Thompson officially diagnosed with concussion 22
- Klay Thompson should not have been cleared to return to Game 5 after concussion evaluation 16
- Dwight Howard suspended one game after foul switcheroo 18
- Three coaches who may replace Tom Thibodeau in Chicago 15