Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EDT
The blue section of the line in the above image represents the actual NBA salary cap (data via RealGM).
The orange section represents the projected cap for 2015-16 and 2016-17. The league projected a 2015-16 cap of $66.3 million, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com. In 2016-17 – when a new national TV contract kicks in – ESPN estimates a cap around $80 million, which is the figure I use here.
After years of steady growth followed by stagnancy until this year, the salary cap rocketing upward could cause all sorts of complications. Already, players – including LeBron James – are structuring their contracts to take advantage of the predicted high cap.
However, the NBA has other ideas.
Executives on lots of teams have gotten the sense from the league office that the NBA will try to smooth the increase of the cap level to minimize the impact of any massive one-year jump in revenue. Exactly how it would do that is unclear. The precise team salary cap — $58 million last season, $63 million this season — is tied to overall league revenues; the two rise and fall together. Players are guaranteed about 50 percent of the league’s “basketball-related income,” and the league and union set the cap figure so player salaries add up to a number in that 50 percent ballpark.
The league’s specific plan for smoothing out the cap increase is unclear, and in the end, it may opt against doing so at all. The players will receive their guaranteed 50 percent share of revenues regardless of any engineering.
There are a lot of roadblocks to smoothing the cap’s growth.
The cap is set by formula based on league-wide revenue. The only way, under the current rules, for the cap to be less is for revenues to be less.
Perhaps, the NBA could bargain with the National Basketball Players Association, offering a higher percentage of revenues in future years in exchange for the players getting a reduced cut in 2016-17. But only current players would be voting on that proposal, and they want the money coming in while they’re still in the league.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has suggested the NBA structure its new TV deal so the money arrives in strategic stages rather than too much at once, but that runs into a similar issue. I can’t see current owners deferring revenue they could get sooner than later just to keep some of it from the players.
Adam Silver has frequently called the players “partners” in the league’s growth. In the end, I think he’ll have to heed those words and watch the salary cap – and therefore, player salaries – suddenly soar as the owners get a huge influx of revenue.
It’s not a bad problem for anyone involved.
Apr 1, 2015, 1:34 AM EDT
We may have to watch the Nets in the playoffs. Lord help us all.
Apr 1, 2015, 12:50 AM EDT
Curry just dropped the best defensive point guard in the NBA.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
The deer is angrier
Mar 31, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Curry and Harden seem to be the frontrunners.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
“Not what I envisioned coming into this season. But I’m here and ready to conquer this journey.” —Kevin Durant
Mar 31, 2015, 7:59 PM EDT
Which is easier to insult, the Lakers or Justin Bieber?
Mar 31, 2015, 7:20 PM EDT
Harrell a potential lottery pick, Rozier a potential first rounder
Mar 31, 2015, 6:29 PM EDT
It’s impossible to ever really define and entire large city in one bit of writing. But this story comes as close to defining the intricate relationship of San Antonio with the Spurs as you are going to see.
Mar 31, 2015, 5:38 PM EDT
Redick, who once looked like a bust given oversized expectations, playing big role for surging Clippers
Mar 31, 2015, 4:56 PM EDT
This was fun frustration
Mar 31, 2015, 3:44 PM EDT
Knicks fans should be patient with this season. Optimistic… that’s a tough sell.
Mar 31, 2015, 2:59 PM EDT
LeBron names his three, and says after that he has ‘a bunch of teammates.’
Mar 31, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
It had been hoped that Beverley might be available to return later in the postseason.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
Mar 31, 2015, 12:40 PM EDT
We already knew Durant was done for the season, but the Thunder have updated his status.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Green is trying to downplay rivalry with Clippers coach, and is dealing with inflammation in his shins.
Kyrie Irving on his relationship with LeBron James: ‘I don’t want to say it’s not been rocky at all’
Mar 31, 2015, 11:20 AM EDT
Things are clicking now in Cleveland, but it wasn’t that way at the beginning of the season.
Flip Saunders (sort of) makes up with Jazz broadcaster after ripping him for saying Timberwolves were tanking
Mar 31, 2015, 10:40 AM EDT
Interaction ended with a handshake, but it seemed evident Saunders remained displeased.
Mar 31, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
Hornets were fighting for a playoff spot, but their big free agent acquisition sat on the bench.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:20 AM EDT
Team has nothing left to play for, and Cousins has some nagging injuries.
- Anthony Davis says James Harden should be MVP 12
- Stop judging J.J. Redick by his Duke days if you haven’t already 5
- Thunder say Kevin Durant underwent successful bone graft surgery, will return in 4-6 months 4
- Five Things We Learned in NBA Monday: DeMar DeRozan went Harden on Harden 12
- Derrick Rose returns to full-contact practice, Bulls return date still unknown 13
- Report: Sacramento consultant Chris Mullin to take St. John’s head coaching job 4
- PBT Extra: Taking twitter questions on Clippers, Michael Carter-Williams, more 7
- PBT’s NBA Power Rankings: Cream rising to top as playoffs near 28