Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EDT
The blue section of the line in the above image represents the actual NBA salary cap (data via RealGM).
The orange section represents the projected cap for 2015-16 and 2016-17. The league projected a 2015-16 cap of $66.3 million, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com. In 2016-17 – when a new national TV contract kicks in – ESPN estimates a cap around $80 million, which is the figure I use here.
After years of steady growth followed by stagnancy until this year, the salary cap rocketing upward could cause all sorts of complications. Already, players – including LeBron James – are structuring their contracts to take advantage of the predicted high cap.
However, the NBA has other ideas.
Executives on lots of teams have gotten the sense from the league office that the NBA will try to smooth the increase of the cap level to minimize the impact of any massive one-year jump in revenue. Exactly how it would do that is unclear. The precise team salary cap — $58 million last season, $63 million this season — is tied to overall league revenues; the two rise and fall together. Players are guaranteed about 50 percent of the league’s “basketball-related income,” and the league and union set the cap figure so player salaries add up to a number in that 50 percent ballpark.
The league’s specific plan for smoothing out the cap increase is unclear, and in the end, it may opt against doing so at all. The players will receive their guaranteed 50 percent share of revenues regardless of any engineering.
There are a lot of roadblocks to smoothing the cap’s growth.
The cap is set by formula based on league-wide revenue. The only way, under the current rules, for the cap to be less is for revenues to be less.
Perhaps, the NBA could bargain with the National Basketball Players Association, offering a higher percentage of revenues in future years in exchange for the players getting a reduced cut in 2016-17. But only current players would be voting on that proposal, and they want the money coming in while they’re still in the league.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has suggested the NBA structure its new TV deal so the money arrives in strategic stages rather than too much at once, but that runs into a similar issue. I can’t see current owners deferring revenue they could get sooner than later just to keep some of it from the players.
Adam Silver has frequently called the players “partners” in the league’s growth. In the end, I think he’ll have to heed those words and watch the salary cap – and therefore, player salaries – suddenly soar as the owners get a huge influx of revenue.
It’s not a bad problem for anyone involved.
Apr 21, 2015, 1:37 AM EDT
Golden State wins Game 2, 97-87
Apr 21, 2015, 12:14 AM EDT
Pierce’s comments made him unpopular north of the border, but his play should bother the Raptors more.
Apr 20, 2015, 11:07 PM EDT
Jimmy Butler’s 31 points led the way.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:59 PM EDT
He was simply the most dominant player in Game 1 of the Mavericks vs. Rockets series.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:56 PM EDT
They did exactly that in Game 1.
Apr 20, 2015, 8:55 PM EDT
John Henson, O.J. Mayo, Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah all got techs.
Apr 20, 2015, 8:50 PM EDT
I could try to use logic and suggest that discussing the complete legacy of Jordan with the incomplete legacy of James is a fool’s errand. But this is the Internet, logic is not always welcome.
Apr 20, 2015, 7:50 PM EDT
What you want to see as a Boston fan is Smart embrace the challenge.
Apr 20, 2015, 6:13 PM EDT
The Bulls should be in no rush to bring Hinrich back for this series.
Apr 20, 2015, 5:32 PM EDT
Also, Tyreke Evans is a game-time decision after his injury in the playoff opener.
Apr 20, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
Rose was getting into the paint and making plays.
Apr 20, 2015, 4:06 PM EDT
The Clippers need a rebranding, but the leaked images are not winning over new fans.
Apr 20, 2015, 3:22 PM EDT
One of Ollie’s biggest fans? Kevin Durant
Monty Williams on Warriors home games: ‘I’m not so sure that the decibel level is legal there, and I’m serious’
Apr 20, 2015, 2:44 PM EDT
Is Pelicans coach actually serious?
Apr 20, 2015, 2:03 PM EDT
Whom else would Heat president mean?
Apr 20, 2015, 1:26 PM EDT
Smith committed four fouls in 19 minutes in Cavaliers-Celtics Game 1
Apr 20, 2015, 12:38 PM EDT
Full voting included
Apr 20, 2015, 11:57 AM EDT
And he’s not the only Portland player worried about Aldridge leaving
Apr 20, 2015, 11:20 AM EDT
Clippers tougher than Spurs in Game 1
Apr 20, 2015, 10:37 AM EDT
Admittedly, this was not the finest batch of questions in his postgame press conference
- With Anthony Davis and Pelicans drained, Warriors deliver down the stretch 0
- PBT Extra matchup to watch: Can Toronto keep Paul Pierce quiet on the court? 3
- Bulls overcome ugly start to take 2-0 series lead over Bucks 8
- PBT Extra matchup to watch: Dallas has to find a way to deal with Dwight Howard 3
- Man arrested after fight over who is better, Michael Jordan or LeBron James 24
- PBT Extra matchup to watch: Marcus Smart needs to take on Kyrie Irving challenge 2
- PBT Extra matchup to watch: Pelican guards need to stay with Curry, Thompson 1
- PBT Extra: Matchup to watch in Bulls vs. Bucks, Derrick Rose vs. Michael Carter-Williams 6