Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EST
The blue section of the line in the above image represents the actual NBA salary cap (data via RealGM).
The orange section represents the projected cap for 2015-16 and 2016-17. The league projected a 2015-16 cap of $66.3 million, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com. In 2016-17 – when a new national TV contract kicks in – ESPN estimates a cap around $80 million, which is the figure I use here.
After years of steady growth followed by stagnancy until this year, the salary cap rocketing upward could cause all sorts of complications. Already, players – including LeBron James – are structuring their contracts to take advantage of the predicted high cap.
However, the NBA has other ideas.
Executives on lots of teams have gotten the sense from the league office that the NBA will try to smooth the increase of the cap level to minimize the impact of any massive one-year jump in revenue. Exactly how it would do that is unclear. The precise team salary cap — $58 million last season, $63 million this season — is tied to overall league revenues; the two rise and fall together. Players are guaranteed about 50 percent of the league’s “basketball-related income,” and the league and union set the cap figure so player salaries add up to a number in that 50 percent ballpark.
The league’s specific plan for smoothing out the cap increase is unclear, and in the end, it may opt against doing so at all. The players will receive their guaranteed 50 percent share of revenues regardless of any engineering.
There are a lot of roadblocks to smoothing the cap’s growth.
The cap is set by formula based on league-wide revenue. The only way, under the current rules, for the cap to be less is for revenues to be less.
Perhaps, the NBA could bargain with the National Basketball Players Association, offering a higher percentage of revenues in future years in exchange for the players getting a reduced cut in 2016-17. But only current players would be voting on that proposal, and they want the money coming in while they’re still in the league.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has suggested the NBA structure its new TV deal so the money arrives in strategic stages rather than too much at once, but that runs into a similar issue. I can’t see current owners deferring revenue they could get sooner than later just to keep some of it from the players.
Adam Silver has frequently called the players “partners” in the league’s growth. In the end, I think he’ll have to heed those words and watch the salary cap – and therefore, player salaries – suddenly soar as the owners get a huge influx of revenue.
It’s not a bad problem for anyone involved.
Feb 28, 2015, 9:30 PM EST
Howard has missed the last 14 games.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:04 PM EST
He will sit out Sunday vs. Boston.
Feb 28, 2015, 6:30 PM EST
Tom Thibodeau says Rose’s rehab plan is already mapped out.
Feb 28, 2015, 4:47 PM EST
Westbrook suffered the injury last night against the Blazers.
Feb 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EST
Rockets general manager says he recommended trading ‘everything’ for Harden in 2012
Feb 28, 2015, 2:30 PM EST
What else would he say?
Feb 28, 2015, 1:00 PM EST
He was beloved by former teammates.
Feb 28, 2015, 11:30 AM EST
He was evaluated by doctors after the game Friday.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:33 AM EST
He had been in the hospital for weeks following multiple heart attacks.
Feb 28, 2015, 9:30 AM EST
The Knicks got the double OT win in Detroit, this shot was key.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:00 AM EST
Westbrook is averaging a triple-double over his last five games.
Feb 28, 2015, 1:02 AM EST
To quote Bob Uecker, “juuuuust a bit outside.”
Feb 27, 2015, 11:00 PM EST
There is about as much chance of me getting a date with Emily Ratajkowski this weekend as there is of this actually happening.
Shane Battier on Carmelo Anthony: ‘Last two years I guarded him, he did exactly what the scouting report said he would’
Feb 27, 2015, 10:00 PM EST
Maybe, but Melo still dropped 50 on Battier’s Heat in 2013.
Feb 27, 2015, 9:00 PM EST
NBA teams are considering the question
Daryl Morey believes two bad shots are better than one good shot (always), but data wasn’t significant enough for Jeff Van Gundy to change
Feb 27, 2015, 7:59 PM EST
An interesting anecdote from Morey (speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference) about how the data showed an advantage, but not one big enough for his coach to change.
Feb 27, 2015, 6:59 PM EST
Instead of 30-year plan, assistant Celtics general manager unveils five-year and 10-year plans
Feb 27, 2015, 6:07 PM EST
Kevin Love, it’s your show.
Feb 27, 2015, 5:30 PM EST
There are financial obstacles in the way of dropping 22 games from the schedule, but Battier makes a somewhat compelling case.
Feb 27, 2015, 4:56 PM EST
He’s day to day. (Insert your Keith Olberman joke here.)
- Russell Westbrook undergoes procedure to address cheek fracture, will be re-evaluated next week 2
- Russell Westbrook takes knee to face, it leaves dent (VIDEO) 14
- Former All-Star, popular Knick Anthony Mason dies at age 48 14
- Russell Westbrook posts third straight triple-double, Thunder lose anyway 6
- Shane Battier: ‘I think a 60-game season would be perfect’ 16
- Kyrie Irving has strained left shoulder, out Friday vs. Pacers 0
- Derrick Rose expected to return in 4-6 weeks. In time for playoffs. 20
- Five Things We Learned in NBA Thursday: The Cavaliers we expected have arrived 17