Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EDT
The blue section of the line in the above image represents the actual NBA salary cap (data via RealGM).
The orange section represents the projected cap for 2015-16 and 2016-17. The league projected a 2015-16 cap of $66.3 million, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com. In 2016-17 – when a new national TV contract kicks in – ESPN estimates a cap around $80 million, which is the figure I use here.
After years of steady growth followed by stagnancy until this year, the salary cap rocketing upward could cause all sorts of complications. Already, players – including LeBron James – are structuring their contracts to take advantage of the predicted high cap.
However, the NBA has other ideas.
Executives on lots of teams have gotten the sense from the league office that the NBA will try to smooth the increase of the cap level to minimize the impact of any massive one-year jump in revenue. Exactly how it would do that is unclear. The precise team salary cap — $58 million last season, $63 million this season — is tied to overall league revenues; the two rise and fall together. Players are guaranteed about 50 percent of the league’s “basketball-related income,” and the league and union set the cap figure so player salaries add up to a number in that 50 percent ballpark.
The league’s specific plan for smoothing out the cap increase is unclear, and in the end, it may opt against doing so at all. The players will receive their guaranteed 50 percent share of revenues regardless of any engineering.
There are a lot of roadblocks to smoothing the cap’s growth.
The cap is set by formula based on league-wide revenue. The only way, under the current rules, for the cap to be less is for revenues to be less.
Perhaps, the NBA could bargain with the National Basketball Players Association, offering a higher percentage of revenues in future years in exchange for the players getting a reduced cut in 2016-17. But only current players would be voting on that proposal, and they want the money coming in while they’re still in the league.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has suggested the NBA structure its new TV deal so the money arrives in strategic stages rather than too much at once, but that runs into a similar issue. I can’t see current owners deferring revenue they could get sooner than later just to keep some of it from the players.
Adam Silver has frequently called the players “partners” in the league’s growth. In the end, I think he’ll have to heed those words and watch the salary cap – and therefore, player salaries – suddenly soar as the owners get a huge influx of revenue.
It’s not a bad problem for anyone involved.
Sep 19, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
Must-read quote from Bogut on how he does NOT want to be perceived.
Sep 19, 2014, 5:59 PM EDT
This post is here to make life easier for you when you want to find these at the end of the season and point out how wrong we were.
UPDATED Report: Timberwolves make push for Eric Bledsoe, Suns not interested in sign-and-trade talks
Sep 19, 2014, 5:11 PM EDT
It has to be a sign and trade and Minnesota doesn’t have a lot of leverage here.
Sep 19, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
“It was more just becoming a better all-around player, trying to take the next step and become a leader on this team and will my team to win.” —Jeff Green
Sep 19, 2014, 3:28 PM EDT
And you wonder why Phil Jackson is worth $12 million a year to the Knicks organization.
Sep 19, 2014, 2:50 PM EDT
Budenholzer got thrust into a position with the power a lot of coaches covet.
Sep 19, 2014, 2:07 PM EDT
Sep 19, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
Best. Name. Ever.
Sep 19, 2014, 12:47 PM EDT
Heat point guard one-ups Andre Drummond with trick shot
Sep 19, 2014, 12:44 PM EDT
Will he make Cleveland’s regular-season roster?
Sep 19, 2014, 12:05 PM EDT
Full recap from the launch event at Nike World Headquarters in Portland, Oregon, including technical information, details on colorways, and confirmed release dates.
Sep 19, 2014, 11:32 AM EDT
Elbow injury would have kept him out of camp.
Sep 19, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
Kyle Lowry and Co. return for another run
Sep 19, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Former Kings draft pick joins three other players competing to make Memphis’ roster
Sep 19, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Raduljica, after solid rookie year, leaves NBA sooner than he’d hoped.
Sep 19, 2014, 8:30 AM EDT
Alfonso Ribeiro can still do that dance.
Sep 19, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
“Then it became a competition amongst guys and now you really got into it more and you started to really understand the clothes you put on your body.” —Dwyane Wade
Sep 19, 2014, 12:01 AM EDT
Saunders wants the rookie to earn it.
Sep 18, 2014, 10:46 PM EDT
Pietrus sat out all of last season.
- UPDATED Report: Timberwolves make push for Eric Bledsoe, Suns not interested in sign-and-trade talks 14
- LeBron James unveils latest signature shoe from Nike: The LEBRON 12 10
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Toronto Raptors 8
- Dwyane Wade credits David Stern’s dress code for improving his style 15
- Kevin Durant has grown close with Karl Malone 15
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Philadelphia 76ers 5
- Steve Kerr said Danny Ferry made mistake but is a “man of high character” 33
- LeBron James on Kyrie Irving: “I believe Kyrie can be the best point guard in the league.” 25