Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EDT
The blue section of the line in the above image represents the actual NBA salary cap (data via RealGM).
The orange section represents the projected cap for 2015-16 and 2016-17. The league projected a 2015-16 cap of $66.3 million, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com. In 2016-17 – when a new national TV contract kicks in – ESPN estimates a cap around $80 million, which is the figure I use here.
After years of steady growth followed by stagnancy until this year, the salary cap rocketing upward could cause all sorts of complications. Already, players – including LeBron James – are structuring their contracts to take advantage of the predicted high cap.
However, the NBA has other ideas.
Executives on lots of teams have gotten the sense from the league office that the NBA will try to smooth the increase of the cap level to minimize the impact of any massive one-year jump in revenue. Exactly how it would do that is unclear. The precise team salary cap — $58 million last season, $63 million this season — is tied to overall league revenues; the two rise and fall together. Players are guaranteed about 50 percent of the league’s “basketball-related income,” and the league and union set the cap figure so player salaries add up to a number in that 50 percent ballpark.
The league’s specific plan for smoothing out the cap increase is unclear, and in the end, it may opt against doing so at all. The players will receive their guaranteed 50 percent share of revenues regardless of any engineering.
There are a lot of roadblocks to smoothing the cap’s growth.
The cap is set by formula based on league-wide revenue. The only way, under the current rules, for the cap to be less is for revenues to be less.
Perhaps, the NBA could bargain with the National Basketball Players Association, offering a higher percentage of revenues in future years in exchange for the players getting a reduced cut in 2016-17. But only current players would be voting on that proposal, and they want the money coming in while they’re still in the league.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has suggested the NBA structure its new TV deal so the money arrives in strategic stages rather than too much at once, but that runs into a similar issue. I can’t see current owners deferring revenue they could get sooner than later just to keep some of it from the players.
Adam Silver has frequently called the players “partners” in the league’s growth. In the end, I think he’ll have to heed those words and watch the salary cap – and therefore, player salaries – suddenly soar as the owners get a huge influx of revenue.
It’s not a bad problem for anyone involved.
Report: Spurs reach deal to trade Tiago Splitter to Hawks, create cap space for LaMarcus Aldridge offer
Jul 1, 2015, 12:03 PM EDT
The Spurs can now offer Aldridge the chance to return to his native Texas and walk right onto a serious title contender.
Jul 1, 2015, 11:45 AM EDT
That’s a great signing for San Antonio.
Report: Kobe Bryant was ‘very good’ in Lakers meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge, which went ‘really well’
Jul 1, 2015, 11:26 AM EDT
Lakers feel better about this one than previous meetings with Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard.
Jul 1, 2015, 10:38 AM EDT
This was expected. But what happens with Dwyane Wade?
Jul 1, 2015, 9:55 AM EDT
A bit of a surprise.
Jul 1, 2015, 9:54 AM EDT
Solid move by Chicago at an extremely reasonable price.
Report: Blazers, Damian Lillard nearing agreement on five-year max contract extension worth $120 million
Jul 1, 2015, 9:15 AM EDT
Lillard’s worth it, but Portland right now really had no choice.
Jul 1, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
Prince played better than you’d think last season, but he will turn 36 this coming year.
Jul 1, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Does putting Rajon Rondo, DeMarcus Cousins and George Karl in close proximity to each other for an entire NBA season seem like a good idea?
Jul 1, 2015, 3:11 AM EDT
The Bucks locked him up long-term after a breakout season.
Jul 1, 2015, 2:36 AM EDT
The Rockets have the right to match any offer.
Jul 1, 2015, 2:12 AM EDT
Lopez gets three years, $60 million; Young gets four years, $50 million.
Jul 1, 2015, 1:58 AM EDT
The Hawks, Nuggets and Kings are also interested.
Jul 1, 2015, 12:41 AM EDT
This was expected.
Jul 1, 2015, 12:39 AM EDT
A replacement for Nicolas Batum on the wing.
Jul 1, 2015, 12:15 AM EDT
Davis will be in New Orleans through at least 2020.
Jul 1, 2015, 12:13 AM EDT
Love said he was committed to Cleveland, now he is flirting with other teams.
Jun 30, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Kobe being in the room is not guaranteed, but it helps.
Jun 30, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
I didn’t know he had that in him.
Jun 30, 2015, 9:01 PM EDT
The Clippers want him, but they have other, larger concerns.
- Report: Spurs reach deal to trade Tiago Splitter to Hawks, create cap space for LaMarcus Aldridge offer 4
- Report: Heat, Goran Dragic agree to five-year deal worth $90 million 34
- Report: Paul Millsap had midnight meeting with Orlando, will decide between Magic and Hawks 11
- Report: Blazers, Damian Lillard nearing agreement on five-year max contract extension worth $120 million 17
- Report: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs reach deal for five-year, $90 million contract extension 19
- Anthony Davis and Pelicans agree to five-year, $145 million contract extension 36
- Report: Kevin Love to meet with Lakers later in week 17
- Report: Lakers working to clear out more cap space to land both LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan 33