Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EST
The blue section of the line in the above image represents the actual NBA salary cap (data via RealGM).
The orange section represents the projected cap for 2015-16 and 2016-17. The league projected a 2015-16 cap of $66.3 million, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com. In 2016-17 – when a new national TV contract kicks in – ESPN estimates a cap around $80 million, which is the figure I use here.
After years of steady growth followed by stagnancy until this year, the salary cap rocketing upward could cause all sorts of complications. Already, players – including LeBron James – are structuring their contracts to take advantage of the predicted high cap.
However, the NBA has other ideas.
Executives on lots of teams have gotten the sense from the league office that the NBA will try to smooth the increase of the cap level to minimize the impact of any massive one-year jump in revenue. Exactly how it would do that is unclear. The precise team salary cap — $58 million last season, $63 million this season — is tied to overall league revenues; the two rise and fall together. Players are guaranteed about 50 percent of the league’s “basketball-related income,” and the league and union set the cap figure so player salaries add up to a number in that 50 percent ballpark.
The league’s specific plan for smoothing out the cap increase is unclear, and in the end, it may opt against doing so at all. The players will receive their guaranteed 50 percent share of revenues regardless of any engineering.
There are a lot of roadblocks to smoothing the cap’s growth.
The cap is set by formula based on league-wide revenue. The only way, under the current rules, for the cap to be less is for revenues to be less.
Perhaps, the NBA could bargain with the National Basketball Players Association, offering a higher percentage of revenues in future years in exchange for the players getting a reduced cut in 2016-17. But only current players would be voting on that proposal, and they want the money coming in while they’re still in the league.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN has suggested the NBA structure its new TV deal so the money arrives in strategic stages rather than too much at once, but that runs into a similar issue. I can’t see current owners deferring revenue they could get sooner than later just to keep some of it from the players.
Adam Silver has frequently called the players “partners” in the league’s growth. In the end, I think he’ll have to heed those words and watch the salary cap – and therefore, player salaries – suddenly soar as the owners get a huge influx of revenue.
It’s not a bad problem for anyone involved.
Dec 20, 2014, 3:30 PM EST
No contact on the perimeter, yea he’s up for that.
Dec 20, 2014, 2:00 PM EST
The Christmas Day slate of games is (mostly) stellar.
Dec 20, 2014, 12:30 PM EST
Dunk of the year by Johnson had Drummond throwing elbows.
Dec 20, 2014, 11:00 AM EST
Rivers saw this coming just four games into the season.
Dec 20, 2014, 9:30 AM EST
Lin understands why Bryant always gets the ball in these situations, but admits he’d like to get some opportunities.
Dec 20, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
As the Thunder ended up winning by one, 104-103, this block ended up being very important.
Dec 20, 2014, 2:07 AM EST
Lillard needs to get mentioned with the game’s top point guards.
Dec 20, 2014, 12:49 AM EST
Young earned this one and will get to write a check to the league.
Dec 20, 2014, 12:02 AM EST
Former NBA player now trying to make his way as a fighter.
Dec 19, 2014, 10:50 PM EST
There are a whole host of reasons Rondo was traded; this is just the most convenient for Boston’s brass.
Dec 19, 2014, 9:40 PM EST
Nice gesture by the players.
Dec 19, 2014, 8:30 PM EST
…pretty smoothly somehow
Dec 19, 2014, 7:25 PM EST
Leonard was the Finals MVP for San Antonio last season.
Dec 19, 2014, 6:45 PM EST
Warriors coach has jokes
Dec 19, 2014, 6:35 PM EST
This is the smart move by the Thunder.
Dec 19, 2014, 5:59 PM EST
It’s kind of moot now, but it’s not a surprise.
Dec 19, 2014, 5:15 PM EST
Lakers star: ‘If the opportunity came up, then that’s the time to have that discussion’
Dec 19, 2014, 4:29 PM EST
Black-and-white version of Toronto’s new logo looks similar to Brooklyn’s
Dec 19, 2014, 3:44 PM EST
President wants to see more athletes take political stands
Dec 19, 2014, 2:56 PM EST
This gives the Rockets a little more depth on the wing with Harden and Ariza.
- Clippers rip officials after being called for seven technical fouls in loss to Nuggets 13
- Jeremy Lin after Kobe misses at the buzzer: ‘I like game-winners too’ 40
- Damian Lillard drops career high 43, leads Blazers to 3OT win over Spurs (VIDEO) 7
- Kendrick Perkins: Rajon Rondo wanted out of Boston 7
- Report: Minnesota agrees to trade Corey Brewer to Houston 7
- Dallas moves into title contender status with addition of Rajon Rondo 45
- Kevin Durant turns ankle, leaves game not to return; X-rays negative. 4
- Report: Celtics ‘pretty pleased’ with return they got in trade for Rajon Rondo 31