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How much money Joel Embiid’s injury will cost him

Jun 20, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT

Though there was conflicting information, I was convinced Joel Embiid would go No. 1 in the draft. He as a top-three lock. That was before his foot injury, of course.

Now, Embiid is in free fall.

I’d guess Embiid still goes in the top three, and I can’t seem him falling below No. 10 at the worst.

But I never would have projected an injured Nerlens Noel would slip to No. 6 last year. And this draft is much deeper, making the risk/reward evaluation less favorable to Embiid. Just to be safe, I’m including the possibility of him falling anywhere in the first round. (If Embiid somehow falls to the second round, his salary would be a matter of negotiation, but that scenario is ridiculously far-fetched).

Rookie-scale contracts are four years – the first two guaranteed and the last two team options. Usually, especially for high picks like Embiid, the options are picked up.

Here’s how much Embiid stands to lose in each guaranteed salary and across the entirety of a four-year rookie-scale deal (counting everything at the standard 120 percent of scale). You can choose your own adventure – starting with whether you believe Embiid would have gone No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 and ending with where you think he’ll fall.

For example, if you believe Embiid would have gone No. 1 and will now go No. 6, you’re projecting a $10,018,983 loss for Embiid in the next four years including $4,554,960 of guaranteed salary. (You also might be Danny Ainge.)

Lost salary from No. 1

Pick Guaranteed Four years
2 $1,186,320 $2,610,531
3 $2,214,720 $4,869,216
4 $3,105,600 $6,830,783
5 $3,876,600 $8,524,817
6 $4,554,960 $10,018,983
7 $5,139,720 $11,304,280
8 $5,654,040 $12,434,776
9 $6,107,400 $13,431,730
10 $6,365,760 $14,000,743
11 $6,610,920 $14,413,809
12 $6,843,720 $14,815,321
13 $7,065,120 $15,202,945
14 $7,275,120 $15,574,192
15 $7,475,160 $15,933,749
16 $7,664,640 $16,376,938
17 $7,845,000 $16,797,215
18 $8,016,240 $17,196,575
19 $8,162,640 $17,537,627
20 $8,286,960 $17,827,018
21 $8,406,240 $18,030,141
22 $8,520,600 $18,226,386
23 $8,630,520 $18,418,058
24 $8,736,240 $18,605,683
25 $8,837,400 $18,787,554
26 $8,918,160 $18,986,475
27 $8,985,960 $19,154,302
28 $8,999,880 $19,187,875
29 $9,016,440 $19,229,006
30 $9,032,760 $19,269,898

Lost salary from No. 2

Pick Guaranteed Four years
3 $1,028,400 $2,258,686
4 $1,919,280 $4,220,252
5 $2,690,280 $5,914,286
6 $3,368,640 $7,408,452
7 $3,953,400 $8,693,749
8 $4,467,720 $9,824,245
9 $4,921,080 $10,821,199
10 $5,179,440 $11,390,212
11 $5,424,600 $11,803,278
12 $5,657,400 $12,204,790
13 $5,878,800 $12,592,414
14 $6,088,800 $12,963,661
15 $6,288,840 $13,323,218
16 $6,478,320 $13,766,407
17 $6,658,680 $14,186,685
18 $6,829,920 $14,586,044
19 $6,976,320 $14,927,097
20 $7,100,640 $15,216,487
21 $7,219,920 $15,419,610
22 $7,334,280 $15,615,855
23 $7,444,200 $15,807,527
24 $7,549,920 $15,995,152
25 $7,651,080 $16,177,024
26 $7,731,840 $16,375,944
27 $7,799,640 $16,543,772
28 $7,813,560 $16,577,344
29 $7,830,120 $16,618,476
30 $7,846,440 $16,659,367

Lost salary from No. 3

Pick Guaranteed Four years
4 $890,880 $1,961,566
5 $1,661,880 $3,655,601
6 $2,340,240 $5,149,766
7 $2,925,000 $6,435,064
8 $3,439,320 $7,565,559
9 $3,892,680 $8,562,514
10 $4,151,040 $9,131,526
11 $4,396,200 $9,544,592
12 $4,629,000 $9,946,105
13 $4,850,400 $10,333,729
14 $5,060,400 $10,704,976
15 $5,260,440 $11,064,532
16 $5,449,920 $11,507,721
17 $5,630,280 $11,927,999
18 $5,801,520 $12,327,359
19 $5,947,920 $12,668,411
20 $6,072,240 $12,957,801
21 $6,191,520 $13,160,925
22 $6,305,880 $13,357,170
23 $6,415,800 $13,548,842
24 $6,521,520 $13,736,466
25 $6,622,680 $13,918,338
26 $6,703,440 $14,117,259
27 $6,771,240 $14,285,086
28 $6,785,160 $14,318,658
29 $6,801,720 $14,359,790
30 $6,818,040 $14,400,682

There is good news for Embiid.

Quality players stand to make much more on their second contracts. If Embiid falls below the developmental wastelands that have been the Cavaliers (No. 1 pick) and Bucks (No. 2 pick), he might be better positioned to excel and command more on his next contract. Quite possibly, that offsets his losses on his first deal.

More importantly, Embiid is taking a healthy approach.

https://twitter.com/JoelEmbiid/status/479993795937718272

  1. 6thsense10 - Jun 20, 2014 at 11:31 AM

    Ehhh….No matter what he’ll end up making more than his last employer paid him.

  2. mungman69 - Jun 20, 2014 at 11:44 AM

    Boston at #6 or the Lakers at #7 will snag Embiid if he is still there. A VERY, VERY TALENTED SEVEN FOOTER. Sure there are concerns but this guy has soooo much talent. Someone will take the chance.

  3. WillIEverSeeACupInMyLife? - Jun 20, 2014 at 11:45 AM

    Poor thing….you mean he’ll only get $5 million a year instead of $8 million?

  4. WillIEverSeeACupInMyLife? - Jun 20, 2014 at 11:45 AM

    Poor thing….you mean he’ll only get $5 million a year instead of $8 million?

  5. zacksdad - Jun 20, 2014 at 12:07 PM

    If he goes to the Lakers or Celtics, he might make that up in endorsements.

  6. harshedmellow - Jun 20, 2014 at 12:58 PM

    Joel “Stress Fracture” Embid

    “The Big Fracture”

    There’s no way I waste a top-10 pick on a guy who’s bones are breaking like twigs. Screw “next big contract”; this guy is out of the league in 4 years! Greg Oden redux.

    • 1historian - Jun 20, 2014 at 5:54 PM

      there is always that chance

  7. logicalcomment - Jun 20, 2014 at 1:37 PM

    these teams never learn, injured big man is trouble, and at 20 already !

  8. campcouch - Jun 20, 2014 at 10:56 PM

    There are some teams under pressure to show improvement now,and as much as they would like to take a chance on an athletic 7 footer,having him sit for a year or more isn’t palatable. A team that can let him sit either due to the team being bad enough or good enough where his presence won’t matter yet is a good spot. Keep in mind that he’s 20 and the treatment for this injury has improved since the days of Walton.Yao Ming had this at the end of his CBA/NBA career and China/Houston didn’t handle it well. Zydrunaus Ilgauskas had this twice and sat two years then managed a 14 year career and 2 All-Star appearances. Somebody is going to get a projected #1 cheap and either have a solid piece for a rebuild or a continuation of an established team.

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