Jun 2, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
San Antonio Spurs 62-20 (No. 1 seed in West)
Miami Heat 54-28 (No. 2 seed in East)
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker sprained his ankle in Game 4 against the Thunder and aggravated it in Game 5, by the second half of Game 6 Gregg Popovich shut him down. He says he wants and plans to play in Game 1 of the Finals, but how explosive he is, the Spurs need the Full Parker in this series.
Miami Heat: Nothing of note (Chris Andersen returned from his injury and with five days off should be good to go in Game 1).
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS IN PLAYOFFS (points per 100 possession)
San Antonio Spurs: Offense 111.2 (second in playoffs); Defense 101 (second we in playoffs)
Miami Heat: Offense 113.7 (first in playoffs); Defense 102.8 (fifth in playoffs)
THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES
1. Miami will go small, can the Spurs adjust? Last year in the Finals Miami had much more success with it’s small lineups, putting in three point shooters in to get enough floor spacing (remember they started Mike Miller). As we saw against the Thunder, it is likely Gregg Popovich has to match that by not playing Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan together (even though the Spurs defense is much better when they are paired), and we can expect to see a heavy dose of Boris Diaw (which allows the Spurs to “go small” without really going all that small). Miami’s real weapon here is Dwyane Wade — his knees did not let him perform up to a high level last Finals, this season Eric Spoelstra had him on a knee maintenance program of rest all season long and it has paid off. Vintage Wade, even in just four or five games, would be a big boost for Miami.
2. Spurs ball movement vs. Heat pressure defense. Miami’s defense is all about using their athleticism to force turnovers and pressure teams into poor decisions, which then become transition points for the Heat going to other way. No team is better suited to counter this than the Spurs with their ball movement — but they struggled at points against Oklahoma City when the Thunder cranked up the athleticism and defense pressure. The Spurs need to be more consistent this series.
Two key things to watch when the Spurs are on offense. First, how does Manu Ginobili handle the pressure (especially if he gets more time as the defacto point guard with Parker having a bum ankle)? Last Finals he struggled, he was out of control and missed some big plays, and it cost the Spurs. San Antonio needs the Ginobili from the last series to show up.
Second, how does Chris Bosh work on the pick-and-roll? San Antonio will drag him out to be the big defending in that situation and he has to contain Parker, Ginobili and the rest of them and not let them get into the paint. Once there and with the Spurs ball movement even the athletic Heat can’t rotate fast enough to stop a clean-look shot.
3. Kawhi Leonard on LeBron James. Last series for six games Kawhi Leonard went under picks and gave LeBron the jump shot, and LeBron took the bait. He hit a decent number of them at times, but he was passive. Game 7 was different, LeBron consistently still attacked in that situation. It’s not just Leonard on LeBron for the Spurs — he is a team-wide focus — but the same defensive principles will be in place. If LeBron is attacking and getting inside the Heat will be effective and efficient on offense, if he is settling for jumpers the Spurs win. LeBron’s going to get his, Leonard just has to make that happen from the outside, he has to make LeBron work for his buckets. Pretty much the exact same rules apply to Dwyane Wade.
PREDICTIONS (from the PBT staff)
Kurt Helin: San Antonio is a better team than they were a year ago, Miami is not playing as well as last year’s version. Plus, the Spurs have been forced to raise their level of execution to a much higher place just to get to the Finals (Miami was not nearly tested the same way). I would take the Spurs in 5 if not for two words: LeBron James. Even so, Spurs in 7.
Brett Pollakoff: The Heat have the game’s best player in LeBron James, and picking against him at this stage of his career implies at least a certain amount of foolishness. With that being said, the way the Spurs used an entire team effort to close out the Thunder on the road reminds us that Gregg Popovich’s system might simply be destined to out-execute the defending champs in a rematch of last year’s epic seven-game series. Spurs in 7.
Dan Feldman. Spurs in 7. San Antonio is slightly better and Miami slightly worse than last season, when the Heat won the series by a razor-thin margin. Honestly, I’m leery about picking against LeBron and hardly confident in my pick. This one could really go either way.
Jul 28, 2014, 2:04 AM EDT
Lance letting us know where his loyalties lie.
Jul 27, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
The 2015 Slam Dunk Contest champion might have already been decided.
Jul 27, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
At least he has an injury.
Jul 27, 2014, 7:00 PM EDT
We’ve known this for a while now.
Jul 27, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Millsap gets the call as a late addition after Blake Griffin and Kevin Love dropped out in the last few days.
Jul 27, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
KG is likely coming back for his 20th NBA season, but may be setting himself up for something more with the Nets one his playing days are finished.
Jul 27, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
LeBron makes yet another momentous decision.
Jul 27, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
L.A. will keep Nash on the roster for the upcoming season, and take the cap hit for the $9.7 million remaining on his contract all at once.
Jul 27, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
Only other possibility would have been LeBron facing the Heat, but that feels more like Christmas.
Jul 27, 2014, 10:01 AM EDT
Team downplays ESPN report that a contract has been agreed upon.
Jul 27, 2014, 9:29 AM EDT
Would Harden have been offended if he and Parsons made similar money?
Jul 27, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Kobe looks like Kobe, even all those years ago.
Jul 27, 2014, 12:30 AM EDT
Wade can play a little football.
Jul 26, 2014, 11:37 PM EDT
The negotiations was over years and the fourth year is a team option.
Jul 26, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
Beasley is an unrestricted free agent, and some team will almost certainly take a chance on him next season.
Jul 26, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
Bledsoe is absolutely right.
Jul 26, 2014, 7:00 PM EDT
If Kevin Love will not opt-in to the last year of his deal, would you still give up Wiggins for him?
Jul 26, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Nobody scores on Joakim Noah, 7-year-old youth included.
Jul 26, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Being inserted into the starting lineup might have something to do with it.
Jul 26, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
Kevin Durant is the perfect international power forward anyway.
- Report: ‘No chance’ Kevin Love stays with Timberwolves 43
- LeBron announces he’ll wear No. 23 with Cavaliers 55
- Report: Lakers say ‘no done deal’ with Byron Scott 17
- Report: Lakers, Byron Scott agree to four-year, $17 million deal to coach team 15
- Kevin Love trade talk: He doesn’t want to opt in to deal, Cavs may live with that 40
- Kevin Love leaving Team USA not helpful, certainly not devastating either 19
- Why are the Lakers hiring Byron Scott as head coach? 46
- Report: NBA considering week-long break for All-Star Game next year 10