Jun 2, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
San Antonio Spurs 62-20 (No. 1 seed in West)
Miami Heat 54-28 (No. 2 seed in East)
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker sprained his ankle in Game 4 against the Thunder and aggravated it in Game 5, by the second half of Game 6 Gregg Popovich shut him down. He says he wants and plans to play in Game 1 of the Finals, but how explosive he is, the Spurs need the Full Parker in this series.
Miami Heat: Nothing of note (Chris Andersen returned from his injury and with five days off should be good to go in Game 1).
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS IN PLAYOFFS (points per 100 possession)
San Antonio Spurs: Offense 111.2 (second in playoffs); Defense 101 (second we in playoffs)
Miami Heat: Offense 113.7 (first in playoffs); Defense 102.8 (fifth in playoffs)
THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES
1. Miami will go small, can the Spurs adjust? Last year in the Finals Miami had much more success with it’s small lineups, putting in three point shooters in to get enough floor spacing (remember they started Mike Miller). As we saw against the Thunder, it is likely Gregg Popovich has to match that by not playing Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan together (even though the Spurs defense is much better when they are paired), and we can expect to see a heavy dose of Boris Diaw (which allows the Spurs to “go small” without really going all that small). Miami’s real weapon here is Dwyane Wade — his knees did not let him perform up to a high level last Finals, this season Eric Spoelstra had him on a knee maintenance program of rest all season long and it has paid off. Vintage Wade, even in just four or five games, would be a big boost for Miami.
2. Spurs ball movement vs. Heat pressure defense. Miami’s defense is all about using their athleticism to force turnovers and pressure teams into poor decisions, which then become transition points for the Heat going to other way. No team is better suited to counter this than the Spurs with their ball movement — but they struggled at points against Oklahoma City when the Thunder cranked up the athleticism and defense pressure. The Spurs need to be more consistent this series.
Two key things to watch when the Spurs are on offense. First, how does Manu Ginobili handle the pressure (especially if he gets more time as the defacto point guard with Parker having a bum ankle)? Last Finals he struggled, he was out of control and missed some big plays, and it cost the Spurs. San Antonio needs the Ginobili from the last series to show up.
Second, how does Chris Bosh work on the pick-and-roll? San Antonio will drag him out to be the big defending in that situation and he has to contain Parker, Ginobili and the rest of them and not let them get into the paint. Once there and with the Spurs ball movement even the athletic Heat can’t rotate fast enough to stop a clean-look shot.
3. Kawhi Leonard on LeBron James. Last series for six games Kawhi Leonard went under picks and gave LeBron the jump shot, and LeBron took the bait. He hit a decent number of them at times, but he was passive. Game 7 was different, LeBron consistently still attacked in that situation. It’s not just Leonard on LeBron for the Spurs — he is a team-wide focus — but the same defensive principles will be in place. If LeBron is attacking and getting inside the Heat will be effective and efficient on offense, if he is settling for jumpers the Spurs win. LeBron’s going to get his, Leonard just has to make that happen from the outside, he has to make LeBron work for his buckets. Pretty much the exact same rules apply to Dwyane Wade.
PREDICTIONS (from the PBT staff)
Kurt Helin: San Antonio is a better team than they were a year ago, Miami is not playing as well as last year’s version. Plus, the Spurs have been forced to raise their level of execution to a much higher place just to get to the Finals (Miami was not nearly tested the same way). I would take the Spurs in 5 if not for two words: LeBron James. Even so, Spurs in 7.
Brett Pollakoff: The Heat have the game’s best player in LeBron James, and picking against him at this stage of his career implies at least a certain amount of foolishness. With that being said, the way the Spurs used an entire team effort to close out the Thunder on the road reminds us that Gregg Popovich’s system might simply be destined to out-execute the defending champs in a rematch of last year’s epic seven-game series. Spurs in 7.
Dan Feldman. Spurs in 7. San Antonio is slightly better and Miami slightly worse than last season, when the Heat won the series by a razor-thin margin. Honestly, I’m leery about picking against LeBron and hardly confident in my pick. This one could really go either way.
Jul 29, 2015, 12:05 AM EDT
Cuban said presidential candidate is ‘probably the best thing to happen to politics in a long, long time’
Jul 28, 2015, 11:09 PM EDT
Could former summer-league standout fill Golden State’s need for an off-the-bench shooter?
Jul 28, 2015, 10:11 PM EDT
Hint, hint, hint
Jul 28, 2015, 9:16 PM EDT
Dallas also reportedly talking to Salah Mejri
Jul 28, 2015, 8:19 PM EDT
Thunder power forward was scheduled to play in African exhibition game
Jul 28, 2015, 7:24 PM EDT
Miami cleared roster room for second-round pick
Jul 28, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
I can tell you where Batum will land next summer — whichever team offers him the most money.
Jul 28, 2015, 5:46 PM EDT
He’ll be back this fall.
Jul 28, 2015, 5:05 PM EDT
The Lakers and Knicks don’t make a ton of sense for him.
Jul 28, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
He’s been sober four years, which is most important.
Jul 28, 2015, 3:29 PM EDT
With more number retirements in Boston on the way in a few years.
Jul 28, 2015, 2:46 PM EDT
Did Michael Jordan hijack the draft process in Charlotte again?
Jul 28, 2015, 1:54 PM EDT
Walker is expected to sign the bill to allocate funds for a new arena.
Jul 28, 2015, 1:43 PM EDT
Batum will be a free agent next summer.
Jul 28, 2015, 1:32 PM EDT
The Nets added solid role players in addition to re-signing Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young.
Jul 28, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
Udoh played five seasons with the Warriors, Bucks and Clippers.
Jul 28, 2015, 12:59 PM EDT
Barnes hasn’t forgotten Ibaka’s altercations with Blake Griffin.
Jul 28, 2015, 12:54 PM EDT
Garnett came out to Summer League practices to work with Towns.
Jul 28, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
The man made some plays.
Jul 28, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Mason Plumlee with a money gun shooting $100s.
- Report: Michael Jordan shot down Boston draft-day effort to get Charlotte No. 9 pick 24
- Wisconsin State Assembly passes Bucks arena deal, clearing the way for Gov. Walker to sign 27
- Phil Jackson says Knicks wanted Goran Dragic at trade deadline. Because he’s such a triangle fit? 16
- Report: Cavaliers sign Matthew Dellavedova 10
- Heat trade Zoran Dragic, second-rounder to Celtics 11
- Report: Cavaliers trade Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller, two second-round picks to Portland 17
- Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry among latest big names headed to Team USA mini-camp 8
- Kyrie Irving off crutches, cleared by doctors to start working out 8