May 16, 2014, 5:20 PM EDT
Indiana Pacers: 56-26
Miami Heat: 54-28
Miami Heat: none
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession)
Indiana Pacers: Offense 101.5 (22nd in the NBA), Defense 96.7 (1st in the NBA)
Miami Heat: Offense: 109.0 (2nd in the NBA). Defense: 102.9 (11th in the NBA)
THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES
1) How will the Heat match up?
The Pacers – admirably or stubbornly – do what they do. They’re going to be big, and they’re going to be methodical.
Maybe Miami goes small with Bosh at center and a stretch four – LeBron, Rashard Lewis or Shane Battier – to space the floor. That would ensure Roy Hibbert defends outside the paint, removing the anchor of Indiana’s defense and removing Hibbert from his comfort zone. However, it would also leave the Heat vulnerable defensively to Hibbert’s post-ups and make Miami pick its poison on whether LeBron doesn’t guard Paul George or David West. Any sign Hibbert has lost confidence to the point he can’t score regardless, this should become the preferred strategy.
On the other hand, the Heat could also go big to counter Hibbert and West. Greg Oden was signed to match up with Hibbert, though that went disastrously in their regular-season meeting meeting. Small sample? Yes. Worth another shot? Maybe. Probably, even. Chris Andersen is Miami’s most reliable big man outside of Bosh, and he’ll definitely play a major role in this series. But he’s 35 and hasn’t played 30 minutes in regulation in four years. There’s only so much he can do.
Udonis Haslem could split the difference.
Haslem is an extremely physical player who, despite being just 6-foot-8, can work on Hibbert. He also has a nice mid-range jumper to pull Hibbert from the paint, though not all the way to the 3-point arc. Haslem started in the first round against the Bobcats, and then he played just three minutes against the small-ball Nets.
Spoelstra is more than willing to change his rotations based on opponent.
It’s not just who plays, but when they play – especially Bosh. Bosh is a solid defender in the right matchups, but Hibbert – and, to a lesser extent, West – can beat him up inside. Ideally for the Heat, they won’t waste all Bosh’s energy in a losing defensive match up only have him spent offensively.
2) How much does homecourt advantage matter?
All season, the Pacers made their goal securing the No. 1 seed and homecourt advantage. They’re so serious about beating Miami, they were looking for an edge since day one after losing a road Game 7 to the Heat last year.
Miami doesn’t take the regular season as seriously – see its record vs. Brooklyn in the regular season and postseason – and Indiana got the top seed it desired despite a late-season slide.
So, will all that work pay off?
In postseason series during the last four years, the Pacers are 4-0 with homecourt advantage and 1-3 without it. In individual games against Miami during the same span, the Pacers are 8-5 at home and 3-11 on the road.
It seems this should be important to Indiana.
Then again, the Pacers are 5-6 in their last 11 home games. Plus, in the Big Three era, the Heat are 11-1 with homecourt advantage and 2-0 without it in a series. They can win anywhere.
Maybe it will matter most as a mental reminder to the Pacers about why they worked so hard in the first place, potentially helping them summon some of the confidence they showed regularly early in the season and appears only occasionally now.
3) How hungry are the Pacers?
In 2012, Miami eliminated Indiana in six games in the second round. In 2013, Miami eliminated Indiana in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Pacers are chomping at the bit, getting closer and closer to toppling the aging Heat.
From Miami’s perspective, keeping a hungry team at bay is hard. Yes, teams should – and generally do – give maximum effort at this point in the season. But when you’re coming from the position of power, there’s a lower threshold of energy you can reach once you get on the court.
The sensation of being corned and the desire to overcome a challenge are not easy to fake. The Pacers have it. The Heat have to fake it.
Since the NBA expanded to a 16-team playoff format in 1984, teams have met in three consecutive postseasons 22 times. The same team has won all three matchups just eight times. Five of those eight had Phil Jackson – the ultimate playoff motivator – as coach.
That leaves just three teams in 30 years that have beaten the same playoff opponent in three consecutive years without Jackson.
Could the Heat make it No. 4? They have a member of the one of the previous three – LeBron, whose Cavaliers beat the Wizards in 2006, 2007 and 2008. As usual, Miami’s demeanor will be defined by its megastar.
The Pacers’ late collapse was very real, but also probably overblown. A good, but not elite, team is left in the rubble. It’s also a team designed specifically to match up with the Heat, Indiana could definitely overcome the quality gap between the teams.
The biggest potential variable is one that hopefully won’t be an issue at all – Wade’s health. If he goes down, this series loses a lot of prestige. He looks fine, but his knees are a constant concern and will be for the rest of his career. As long as Wade avoids injury, the Heat will just be too much.
Heat in 6
May 30, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
Some close to Thibodeau are encouraging him to sit next season out, and that may be his best option.
May 30, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
Bogut claimed the Warriors’ series against the Grizzlies was more physical than the one against the Rockets, despite “aired fists and elbows” from Dwight Howard.
May 30, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Harden couldn’t do it all by himself.
May 30, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Oden was last seen with the Heat in 2014, but Memphis may have him in for a free agent workout next month.
May 30, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
May 30, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Report also says it’s expected that Wade and the Heat will work things out.
May 30, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
He played good defense in the conference finals, the numbers show.
May 30, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
He’s the frontrunner right now.
Doc Rivers on report that Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan had a falling out: ‘I can put this to rest: They get along great’
May 30, 2015, 12:01 AM EDT
It’s literally Rivers’ job to quash these types of rumors.
May 29, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Why should he?
May 29, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Sefolosha suffered a leg fracture during a police incident that kept him from participating in the playoffs.
May 29, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Would you pay $700 for two pairs of sneakers?
May 29, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Jeff Hornacek remains in charge, but there has been some shuffling among his assistants.
May 29, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
There are questions about the future of Josh Smith, Patrick Beverley and others with the team.
May 29, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
The two most popular players in the NBA this season (with Kevin Durant out) go head-to-head on the NBA’s biggest stage.
May 29, 2015, 5:29 PM EDT
Cleveland’s defense has looked better in the playoffs than it has all season, but starting next Thursday it will get the biggest test it has had all season.
May 29, 2015, 4:53 PM EDT
Skiles is a former Magic player from 1989 through 1994.
May 29, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
Ayesha Curry cooks, Stephen Curry tastes, and Riley Curry points out raspberry-sauce spills
May 29, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
Would hiring Thibodeau really a wise call by the Pelicans?
May 29, 2015, 3:09 PM EDT
The NBA needs to review this process going forward.
- PBT Extra with NBASavant.com: Number shows Matthew Dellavedova’s defensive value 2
- PBT Extra with NBASavant.com: Cleveland may want to cover Curry in the left corner 2
- It’s official: Scott Skiles hired as head coach of Orlando Magic 27
- PBT Podcast: Talking Thibodeau/Bulls divorce; future for Rockets, Hawks 0
- Warriors’ Klay Thompson officially diagnosed with concussion 22
- Klay Thompson should not have been cleared to return to Game 5 after concussion evaluation 17
- Dwight Howard suspended one game after foul switcheroo 18
- Three coaches who may replace Tom Thibodeau in Chicago 15