May 16, 2014, 5:20 PM EDT
Indiana Pacers: 56-26
Miami Heat: 54-28
Miami Heat: none
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession)
Indiana Pacers: Offense 101.5 (22nd in the NBA), Defense 96.7 (1st in the NBA)
Miami Heat: Offense: 109.0 (2nd in the NBA). Defense: 102.9 (11th in the NBA)
THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES
1) How will the Heat match up?
The Pacers – admirably or stubbornly – do what they do. They’re going to be big, and they’re going to be methodical.
Maybe Miami goes small with Bosh at center and a stretch four – LeBron, Rashard Lewis or Shane Battier – to space the floor. That would ensure Roy Hibbert defends outside the paint, removing the anchor of Indiana’s defense and removing Hibbert from his comfort zone. However, it would also leave the Heat vulnerable defensively to Hibbert’s post-ups and make Miami pick its poison on whether LeBron doesn’t guard Paul George or David West. Any sign Hibbert has lost confidence to the point he can’t score regardless, this should become the preferred strategy.
On the other hand, the Heat could also go big to counter Hibbert and West. Greg Oden was signed to match up with Hibbert, though that went disastrously in their regular-season meeting meeting. Small sample? Yes. Worth another shot? Maybe. Probably, even. Chris Andersen is Miami’s most reliable big man outside of Bosh, and he’ll definitely play a major role in this series. But he’s 35 and hasn’t played 30 minutes in regulation in four years. There’s only so much he can do.
Udonis Haslem could split the difference.
Haslem is an extremely physical player who, despite being just 6-foot-8, can work on Hibbert. He also has a nice mid-range jumper to pull Hibbert from the paint, though not all the way to the 3-point arc. Haslem started in the first round against the Bobcats, and then he played just three minutes against the small-ball Nets.
Spoelstra is more than willing to change his rotations based on opponent.
It’s not just who plays, but when they play – especially Bosh. Bosh is a solid defender in the right matchups, but Hibbert – and, to a lesser extent, West – can beat him up inside. Ideally for the Heat, they won’t waste all Bosh’s energy in a losing defensive match up only have him spent offensively.
2) How much does homecourt advantage matter?
All season, the Pacers made their goal securing the No. 1 seed and homecourt advantage. They’re so serious about beating Miami, they were looking for an edge since day one after losing a road Game 7 to the Heat last year.
Miami doesn’t take the regular season as seriously – see its record vs. Brooklyn in the regular season and postseason – and Indiana got the top seed it desired despite a late-season slide.
So, will all that work pay off?
In postseason series during the last four years, the Pacers are 4-0 with homecourt advantage and 1-3 without it. In individual games against Miami during the same span, the Pacers are 8-5 at home and 3-11 on the road.
It seems this should be important to Indiana.
Then again, the Pacers are 5-6 in their last 11 home games. Plus, in the Big Three era, the Heat are 11-1 with homecourt advantage and 2-0 without it in a series. They can win anywhere.
Maybe it will matter most as a mental reminder to the Pacers about why they worked so hard in the first place, potentially helping them summon some of the confidence they showed regularly early in the season and appears only occasionally now.
3) How hungry are the Pacers?
In 2012, Miami eliminated Indiana in six games in the second round. In 2013, Miami eliminated Indiana in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Pacers are chomping at the bit, getting closer and closer to toppling the aging Heat.
From Miami’s perspective, keeping a hungry team at bay is hard. Yes, teams should – and generally do – give maximum effort at this point in the season. But when you’re coming from the position of power, there’s a lower threshold of energy you can reach once you get on the court.
The sensation of being corned and the desire to overcome a challenge are not easy to fake. The Pacers have it. The Heat have to fake it.
Since the NBA expanded to a 16-team playoff format in 1984, teams have met in three consecutive postseasons 22 times. The same team has won all three matchups just eight times. Five of those eight had Phil Jackson – the ultimate playoff motivator – as coach.
That leaves just three teams in 30 years that have beaten the same playoff opponent in three consecutive years without Jackson.
Could the Heat make it No. 4? They have a member of the one of the previous three – LeBron, whose Cavaliers beat the Wizards in 2006, 2007 and 2008. As usual, Miami’s demeanor will be defined by its megastar.
The Pacers’ late collapse was very real, but also probably overblown. A good, but not elite, team is left in the rubble. It’s also a team designed specifically to match up with the Heat, Indiana could definitely overcome the quality gap between the teams.
The biggest potential variable is one that hopefully won’t be an issue at all – Wade’s health. If he goes down, this series loses a lot of prestige. He looks fine, but his knees are a constant concern and will be for the rest of his career. As long as Wade avoids injury, the Heat will just be too much.
Heat in 6
Aug 22, 2014, 12:59 AM EDT
This had been expected.
Aug 21, 2014, 8:59 PM EDT
Knicks finally considering the importance of developing young talent for the future.
Aug 21, 2014, 7:31 PM EDT
Wiggins too, while guys like Alexey Shved will be sent to the Sixers.
Aug 21, 2014, 6:12 PM EDT
Gone are the days when Shaq would have used this as an opportunity to take a shot at Kobe.
Aug 21, 2014, 5:02 PM EDT
Why give up assets now, when either player could be signed outright as an unrestricted free agent next summer?
Aug 21, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT
Stephen Curry: “We’re still taking applications.”
Aug 21, 2014, 3:04 PM EDT
He denied this yesterday.
Aug 21, 2014, 1:59 PM EDT
Video of Durant telling this humorous story.
Aug 21, 2014, 1:08 PM EDT
Silver says it’s ultimately the individual athlete’s personal choice.
Aug 21, 2014, 12:10 PM EDT
Being Jeremy Lin’s parent must be an interesting experience. What do you say to him to correct him.
Aug 21, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
It’s a great move, one Irving pulls off almost ever game.
Aug 21, 2014, 10:45 AM EDT
Patience is the right play here. And patience is never popular with any fan base.
Aug 21, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Coming back off foot surgery, this is a good thing.
Aug 21, 2014, 9:45 AM EDT
Blatt can coach, but if it takes a season for the Cavaliers to find their identity (as it did with LeBron in Miami) will he get the chance to stick around for it?
Aug 21, 2014, 9:16 AM EDT
If you’re now rebuilding in Minnesota, why trade Bennett?
Aug 21, 2014, 8:44 AM EDT
Drummond is still a likely cut,
Aug 21, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
It’s all business for KD with Roc Nation getting in the act.
Aug 21, 2014, 1:33 AM EDT
He also was a scoring machine at the showcase in Las Vegas.
Aug 20, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
16 players will practice and be available for Friday’s game against Puerto Rico, but the roster needs to be trimmed to 12 in advance of the FIBA World Cup.
- Adam Silver: NBA stars playing in international competition face ‘a big risk’ 12
- Derrick Rose says he’ll play Friday vs. Puerto Rico 11
- Report: Don’t be so sure on Anthony Bennett to Philadelphia rumors 54
- Report: Nike gets chance to match 10-year, $265 million offer to Kevin Durant from Under Armour 17
- Should NBA coaches get NFL style challenge flags? 18
- Report: Suns discussing trade possibilities for Eric Bledsoe 34
- Report: Sixers may look to trade for Amar’e Stoudemire at this season’s deadline 32
- Kevin Durant reiterates that rest was his reason for withdrawing from Team USA 11