Apr 18, 2014, 5:05 PM EDT
REGULAR SEASON RECORDS
Dallas Mavericks: 49-33 (8 seed)
San Antonio Spurs: 62-20 (1 seed)
None. Which is saying something for the Spurs as they have had injuries (plus the Gregg Popovich preventative rest program) messing with their lineups all season long.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession)
Dallas Mavericks: Offense 109 (3rd in NBA), Defense 105.9 (22nd in NBA)
San Antonio Spurs: 108.1 (7th in NBA), Defense 100.1 (4th in NBA)
THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES
1) Can Dallas even slow the San Antonio offense? This is really the issue, and history says the answer is no. San Antonio has won the last nine meetings between these teams, sweeping this season series by an average of 11.3 points a game. San Antonio averaged 115 points per 100 possessions against Dallas this season, almost 7 per 100 better than their season average. The Spurs make the extra pass every time and that has led to Danny Green destroying the Mavericks from three shooting 12-of-20 from beyond the arc in the meetings this season. Look for Green to put up big numbers in this series. Rick Carlisle is a good coach who will throw a lot of different match ups out there hoping something works, but the reality is on the defensive end he’s playing chess with a handful of pawns while Gregg Popovich has a full arsenal of knights, bishops and other pieces to attack with.
2) Tony Parker. He has just abused Jose Calderon this season — 10-of-18 shooting when their were matched up, driving into the lane 13 times in less than 17 minutes and scoring 24 points on those drives (stats via NBA.com’s player tracking SportsVU cameras). The Dallas defense isn’t that good and when a gifted playmaker and scorer like Parker gets into the lane it’s all over. Look for Dallas to try some Devin Harris on him (they did that this season, as well as some Wayne Ellington) but they make that switch the Dallas offense takes a hit. Somehow Dallas has to find a way to contain Parker to have a chance in this series.
3) Dirk Nowitzki. He’s still one of the games great scorers. He’s still going to get his. The Spurs threw Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw at him during the regular season and he shot 50 percent against both. San Antonio can mix it up taking Kawhi Leonard off Monta Ellis for a while and throw him ad Nowitzki, too, but it will only help so much. For Dallas to win a game in this series, let alone dream of an upset, Nowitzki is going to have to be dominant. Ellis will have to be great also, the Mavs will need to find some kind of defensive answer, but it all comes back to Dirk — he has to be his peak self for Dallas to even have a chance.
Spurs in five. Monta Ellis to his credit has had a resurgent season and meshed very well with Nowitzki, but he is going to have Kawhi Leonard draped on him all series and that will slow his effectiveness. With Leonard and the Diaw/Splitter combination on the Mavs’ stars the Spurs don’t have to double off Dallas’ shooters much, which limits the Dallas offense. Meanwhile Dallas has no good answers to limit the San Antonio offense. I’ll give Dallas one home game because Dirk goes off, but that’s the best they can hope for.
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