Skip to content

Extra Pass: Western Conference playoff field ought to be really good, but just how good?

Mar 12, 2014, 8:22 AM EST

James Harden, Perry Jones, Kevin Durant

The Oklahoma City Thunder sent a message to the Houston Rockets. The Golden State Warriors overwhelmed the Dallas Mavericks. The Memphis Grizzlies made up ground on the Portland Trail Blazers. The San Antonio Spurs smacked down the Chicago Bulls. The Minnesota Timberwolves took care of business against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Tuesday night was eventful for Western Conference playoff contenders.

Though the slate wasn’t the most thrilling, it at least offered glimpses of what’s to come – a historically loaded Western Conference playoffs.

Here are the current standings of the 10 Western Conference teams with realistic playoff chances.

1. San Antonio Spurs (47-16)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder (47-17)

3. Los Angeles Clippers (45-20)

4. Houston Rockets (44-20)

5. Portland Trail Blazers (42-22)

6. Golden State Warriors (41-24)

7. Memphis Grizzlies (37-26)

8. Dallas Mavericks (38-27)

9. Phoenix Suns (36-27)

10. Minnesota Timberwolves (32-31)

If those top eight teams keep winning at the same rate, they’d each hold a better wining percentage (red) than their corresponding seed’s all-time average (gold) since the NBA adopted a 16-team playoff in 1984.

image

Heck, the ninth-place Suns are on pace to finish better than a typical No. 6 seed, and the 10th-place Timberwolves are on pace to best a typical eighth seed.

This is a really tough playoff field to crack.

The top eight in the West have combined to win 66.4 percent of their game. If that holds, it will be the second-best mark ever:

image

If you’re curious, here’s that 1997 Eastern Conference field:

1. Chicago Bulls (69-13)

2. Miami Heat (61-21)

3. New York Knicks (57-25)

4. Atlanta Hawks (56-26)

5. Detroit Pistons (54-28)

6. Charlotte Hornets (54-28)

7. Orlando Magic (45-37)

8. Washington Bullets (44-38)

Now, we already know the West playoff field (red) is on pace to be better than average (gold) at each seed. But how does it compare to the best teams to hold each seed under this system (black)?

image

Here are the best teams at each seed:

1. 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10)

2. 2008-09 Boston Celtics (62-20)

3. 1997-98 Los Angeles Lakers (61-21)

4. 2005-06 Dallas Mavericks (60-22)

5. 2012-13 Memphis Grizzlies and 1997-98 San Antonio Spurs (56-26)

6. 2007-08 Phoenix Suns (55-27)

7. 2007-08 Dallas Mavericks (51-31)

8. 2009-10 Oklahoma City Thunder and 2007-08 Denver Nuggets (50-32)

OK, so no 2014 team is on pace to set a record for its seed. Even the ninth-place Suns fall short of the winning percentage of the 2007-08 Warriors, who missed the playoffs with a 48-34 record.

But in aggregate, this year’s group yields an incredible result:

The 2014 Western Conference teams are on pace to come closer to that hypothetical field of the best seeds of all time than an average field!

Latest Posts
  1. Daryl Morey: ‘Take James Harden off our team, and we’re nowhere’

    Feb 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EST

    J.J. Redick, DeAndre Jordan, James Harden J.J. Redick, DeAndre Jordan, James Harden

    Rockets general manager says he recommended trading ‘everything’ for Harden in 2012

  2. Russell Westbrook takes knee to face, it leaves dent (VIDEO)

    Feb 28, 2015, 11:30 AM EST

    Russell Westbrook AP

    He was evaluated by doctors after the game Friday.

  3. Former All-Star, popular Knick Anthony Mason dies at age 48

    Feb 28, 2015, 10:33 AM EST

    Anthony mason knicks Getty Images

    He had been in the hospital for weeks following multiple heart attacks.

  4. Langston Galloway three forces overtime, Knicks go on to victory (VIDEO)

    Feb 28, 2015, 9:30 AM EST

    New York Knicks v Detroit Pistons Getty Images

    The Knicks got the double OT win in Detroit, this shot was key.

  5. Russell Westbrook posts third straight triple-double, Thunder lose anyway

    Feb 28, 2015, 8:00 AM EST

    Russell Westbrook AP

    Westbrook is averaging a triple-double over his last five games.

  6. Knicks’ Alexey Shved misses shot about as badly as you can (VIDEO)

    Feb 28, 2015, 1:02 AM EST

    Boston Celtics Vs. New York Knicks TD Garden Getty Images

    To quote Bob Uecker, “juuuuust a bit outside.”

  7. Rumor: Baron Davis planning an NBA comeback. Stop laughing, he’s serious.

    Feb 27, 2015, 11:00 PM EST

    Jordan Brand Melo M9 Shoe Launch Getty Images

    There is about as much chance of me getting a date with Emily Ratajkowski this weekend as there is of this actually happening.

  8. What’s the best way to defend Kings’ cherry-picking idea?

    Feb 27, 2015, 9:00 PM EST

    NBA teams are considering the question

  9. Daryl Morey believes two bad shots are better than one good shot (always), but data wasn’t significant enough for Jeff Van Gundy to change

    Feb 27, 2015, 7:59 PM EST

    Houston Rockets Draft Picks Press Conference Getty Images

    An interesting anecdote from Morey (speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference) about how the data showed an advantage, but not one big enough for his coach to change.

  10. Re-inventing the Wheel: Mike Zarren presents modified NBA-draft-lottery-reform proposals

    Feb 27, 2015, 6:59 PM EST

    the modified draft wheel

    Instead of 30-year plan, assistant Celtics general manager unveils five-year and 10-year plans

  11. Shane Battier: ‘I think a 60-game season would be perfect’

    Feb 27, 2015, 5:30 PM EST

    Shane Battier Shane Battier

    There are financial obstacles in the way of dropping 22 games from the schedule, but Battier makes a somewhat compelling case.

Featured video

Is Derrick Rose the next Penny Hardaway?
Top 10 NBA Player Searches
  1. K. Durant (8544)
  2. D. Rose (8164)
  3. S. Curry (7648)
  4. D. Howard (7600)
  5. P. George (6990)
  1. M. Carter-Williams (6848)
  2. R. Westbrook (6625)
  3. A. Davis (6616)
  4. B. Beal (6538)
  5. C. Bosh (6131)