Mar 6, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Four teams. Three spots.
With a quarter of the season remaining that his how the bottom of the Western Conference shakes out.
(Minnesota is 4.5 games out of the mix but in the deep Western Conference where it likely takes 47 wins to make the playoffs, meaning they have to go 17-6 the rest of the way. I don’t see that as a likely outcome.)
That leaves Golden State, Dallas, Phoenix and Memphis all within three games of each other (and more than four games back from the conference’s top five, so those five are safe). One of those four teams will not have a chair when the music stops.
And it could be any of them.
Which one is most likely? Let’s look at their upcoming schedules — listed in the order they stand currently, including how many quality teams they play and how many they play against others in this foursome.
|TEAM NAME||HOME-AWAY||VS. +500||VS. EACH OTHER|
|6. GOLDEN STATE (38-24)||13-7||10||4|
|7. PHOENIX (35-25, -2)||8-14||13||3|
|8. DALLAS (36-26, -2)||12-8||13||4|
|9. Memphis (34-26, -3)||9-13||13||3|
What can you read into that?
• Golden State is in a relatively good spot. They have a three-game cushion over the nine seed and the easiest schedule from here on out. They don’t have any road trips that take them east of the Mississippi. Only two of their last seven games are against teams over .500. There are no guarantees but they are the most likely team to find their way into the postseason.
• Dallas plays a lot of good teams — and they have struggled against the elite in the league — but they also have the advantage of having most of their games at home, where they are 19-10 this season. If they continue on pace of winning two thirds of their home games and just go .500 on the road they are at 48 wins this season, which will almost certainly earn them a ticket to the postseason dance.
• That leaves the most likely outcome — either Memphis or Phoenix is not going to make the cut. Both have tough schedules and they play the majority of their remaining games on the road. However, Memphis is the better road team (16-11 this season to the 14-13 of Phoenix).
• Obviously the games against others in this foursome are key.
• There are a three of games between these teams in the final week of the season that could turn out to be huge:
April 12: Suns at Mavericks
April 14: Grizzlies at Suns
April 16: Mavericks at Grizzlies
Apr 25, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle fined $25K for publicly criticizing officials after Game 3 loss to Rockets
Apr 25, 2015, 2:29 PM EDT
“The officials [have] got to get that stuff under control, because there’s too much physical stuff going on. Howard is throwing people all over the place,” Carlisle said.
Report: ‘No scenario’ where Kawhi Leonard will pursue offer sheets as a restricted free agent this summer
Apr 25, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Spurs and Leonard are a perfect match.
Mavericks coach Carlisle rips officials, claims ‘there’s too much physical stuff going on’ after Game 3 loss to Rockets
Apr 25, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Apr 25, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Pierce did the same thing to the Raptors a year ago when he was with the Nets.
Apr 25, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
The Spurs are Kawhi Leonard’s team now.
Apr 25, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
These feel like Stephen Curry’s playoffs.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:28 AM EDT
Leonard was fantastic at both ends of the court.
Apr 25, 2015, 12:18 AM EDT
The Wizards are moving on. That’s the Truth.
Apr 24, 2015, 10:30 PM EDT
Dwight Howard grabbed 26 rebounds, too.
Apr 24, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
Portland, down 0-2 to Memphis, needs all the help it can get.
Apr 24, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
NBA continues its technological push.
Apr 24, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
Parker is going to finish his degree at Duke.
Apr 24, 2015, 6:45 PM EDT
The Warriors eventually won in overtime regardless.
Apr 24, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT
Looking past the first round to some of the more exciting later matchups to come.
Apr 24, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
The long-running rift continues.
Apr 24, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
He’s got to coach whoever they draft anyway, why not?
LeBron James on why Kevin Love gets criticized: ‘When you have a big three, they’ve got to find someone’
Apr 24, 2015, 3:47 PM EDT
With Heat, it was Chris Bosh
Apr 24, 2015, 3:11 PM EDT
Aron Baynes doubtful
Apr 24, 2015, 2:33 PM EDT
Spurs assistant coach achieved incredible success in Europe
- Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle fined $25K for publicly criticizing officials after Game 3 loss to Rockets 1
- PBT Extra: Stephen Curry starting to have his defining playoff moments 8
- Behind 32 points from Kawhi Leonard, Spurs rout Clippers to take 2-1 series lead 13
- The Truth (and Marcin Gortat) will set Washington free, up 3-0 on Toronto after win 6
- James Harden scores 42 points to lead Rockets to Game 3 win, 3-0 series lead over Mavericks 17
- Why can’t the Pelicans foul in a timely manner? 7
- PBT Extra: No Rajon Rondo, no Chandler Parsons, Dallas is in trouble vs. Houston 6
- Stephen Curry drops 40, leads 20-point comeback as Warriors beat Pelicans in OT, take 3-0 series lead 10