Mar 6, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Four teams. Three spots.
With a quarter of the season remaining that his how the bottom of the Western Conference shakes out.
(Minnesota is 4.5 games out of the mix but in the deep Western Conference where it likely takes 47 wins to make the playoffs, meaning they have to go 17-6 the rest of the way. I don’t see that as a likely outcome.)
That leaves Golden State, Dallas, Phoenix and Memphis all within three games of each other (and more than four games back from the conference’s top five, so those five are safe). One of those four teams will not have a chair when the music stops.
And it could be any of them.
Which one is most likely? Let’s look at their upcoming schedules — listed in the order they stand currently, including how many quality teams they play and how many they play against others in this foursome.
|TEAM NAME||HOME-AWAY||VS. +500||VS. EACH OTHER|
|6. GOLDEN STATE (38-24)||13-7||10||4|
|7. PHOENIX (35-25, -2)||8-14||13||3|
|8. DALLAS (36-26, -2)||12-8||13||4|
|9. Memphis (34-26, -3)||9-13||13||3|
What can you read into that?
• Golden State is in a relatively good spot. They have a three-game cushion over the nine seed and the easiest schedule from here on out. They don’t have any road trips that take them east of the Mississippi. Only two of their last seven games are against teams over .500. There are no guarantees but they are the most likely team to find their way into the postseason.
• Dallas plays a lot of good teams — and they have struggled against the elite in the league — but they also have the advantage of having most of their games at home, where they are 19-10 this season. If they continue on pace of winning two thirds of their home games and just go .500 on the road they are at 48 wins this season, which will almost certainly earn them a ticket to the postseason dance.
• That leaves the most likely outcome — either Memphis or Phoenix is not going to make the cut. Both have tough schedules and they play the majority of their remaining games on the road. However, Memphis is the better road team (16-11 this season to the 14-13 of Phoenix).
• Obviously the games against others in this foursome are key.
• There are a three of games between these teams in the final week of the season that could turn out to be huge:
April 12: Suns at Mavericks
April 14: Grizzlies at Suns
April 16: Mavericks at Grizzlies
Sep 22, 2014, 4:41 PM EDT
Jones previously played for the Grizzlies, Kings, Nuggets, Pacers, Mavericks and Hawks
Sep 22, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Former Pistons No. 2 draft pick putting some distance between himself and basketball
Sep 22, 2014, 3:22 PM EDT
Great job, Danny. Great job.
Sep 22, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT
Jones – who played for the 76ers, Rockets, Bulls (during Michael Jordan’s rookie season), Trail Blazers and Spurs – helped shape Tim Duncan’s career
Sep 22, 2014, 2:04 PM EDT
Chandler: ‘We are going to be a great defensive team’
Sep 22, 2014, 1:29 PM EDT
There were multiple NBA players arrested on domestic abuse charges last year. The spotlight on those cases will be different now.
Sep 22, 2014, 12:50 PM EDT
This is the Marcus Williams who played at Arizona, not Connecticut
Sep 22, 2014, 12:11 PM EDT
James Blair can watch LeBron in person in Cleveland again
Sep 22, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
“The first thing I ever Googled about the man, the first thing that popped up was “racist.” So I was aware. I hate to say this, and it might sound ignorant, but I wasn’t surprised that all this came up.”—Blake Griffin on Donald Sterling
Sep 22, 2014, 10:32 AM EDT
A healthy D Rose could have the Bulls contending for a title.
Sep 22, 2014, 10:11 AM EDT
Toddler imitates Allen Iverson’s practice rant
Sep 22, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT
LeBron is gone but Miami is still playing small, pressuring the ball.
Sep 22, 2014, 9:05 AM EDT
Price will provide point guard depth – at least through training camp
Sep 22, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
“The truthful answer is I really don’t know.” —Danny Ainge on potentially trading Rajon Rondo
Sep 22, 2014, 12:21 AM EDT
Remember Sanders suffered a serious eye injury last season.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
Way more Andre Iguodala than you might expect.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT
Turner’s stock has dropped significantly since being traded from the Sixers to the Pacers in the middle of last season.
NBA’s rookie transition program tries to educate, but some of the information is presented in poor taste
Sep 21, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
You can see what they’re trying to do, but some of the things presented went a bit too far.
Sep 21, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Our first real look at the new uniforms and new court design.
Sep 21, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
I’m pretty sure Popovich doesn’t want him taking one of these in a game.
- NBA to review domestic violence policies in wake of NFL’s ugliness. It shouldn’t have taken that. 9
- Cavaliers lift ban on fan who ran onto court with LeBron James shirt 11
- Blake Griffin said he knew Donald Sterling was racist, wasn’t really surprised by tape 11
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Chicago Bulls 10
- Tony Parker hits a back over-the-head halfcourt shot (VIDEO) 8
- Timberwolves ‘not necessarily in a rush’ to agree to contract extension with Ricky Rubio 16
- Andray Blatche signs deal to play in China next season 11
- Is Klay Thompson the best two-way shooting guard? Stephen Curry would ‘put him up against anybody.’ 18