Mar 6, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Four teams. Three spots.
With a quarter of the season remaining that his how the bottom of the Western Conference shakes out.
(Minnesota is 4.5 games out of the mix but in the deep Western Conference where it likely takes 47 wins to make the playoffs, meaning they have to go 17-6 the rest of the way. I don’t see that as a likely outcome.)
That leaves Golden State, Dallas, Phoenix and Memphis all within three games of each other (and more than four games back from the conference’s top five, so those five are safe). One of those four teams will not have a chair when the music stops.
And it could be any of them.
Which one is most likely? Let’s look at their upcoming schedules — listed in the order they stand currently, including how many quality teams they play and how many they play against others in this foursome.
|TEAM NAME||HOME-AWAY||VS. +500||VS. EACH OTHER|
|6. GOLDEN STATE (38-24)||13-7||10||4|
|7. PHOENIX (35-25, -2)||8-14||13||3|
|8. DALLAS (36-26, -2)||12-8||13||4|
|9. Memphis (34-26, -3)||9-13||13||3|
What can you read into that?
• Golden State is in a relatively good spot. They have a three-game cushion over the nine seed and the easiest schedule from here on out. They don’t have any road trips that take them east of the Mississippi. Only two of their last seven games are against teams over .500. There are no guarantees but they are the most likely team to find their way into the postseason.
• Dallas plays a lot of good teams — and they have struggled against the elite in the league — but they also have the advantage of having most of their games at home, where they are 19-10 this season. If they continue on pace of winning two thirds of their home games and just go .500 on the road they are at 48 wins this season, which will almost certainly earn them a ticket to the postseason dance.
• That leaves the most likely outcome — either Memphis or Phoenix is not going to make the cut. Both have tough schedules and they play the majority of their remaining games on the road. However, Memphis is the better road team (16-11 this season to the 14-13 of Phoenix).
• Obviously the games against others in this foursome are key.
• There are a three of games between these teams in the final week of the season that could turn out to be huge:
April 12: Suns at Mavericks
April 14: Grizzlies at Suns
April 16: Mavericks at Grizzlies
Sep 1, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
Elephant dunks a basketball.
Sep 1, 2014, 1:31 PM EDT
This makes more sense, but he could get moved near the deadline.
Sep 1, 2014, 11:59 AM EDT
This would be a solid pickup for the bench, especially at the league minimum.
Sep 1, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Ron Rothstein and Bob McAdoo lose bench spots, could stay with Miami
Sep 1, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
This is a win for Jay-Z’s Roc Nation.
Sep 1, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Harden’s reputation on the defensive end of the floor continues to grow.
Sep 1, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Whether he asked out or not doesn’t really change his situation much.
Sep 1, 2014, 12:30 AM EDT
Blatche being Blatche.
Aug 31, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
Turkoglu didn’t do much in L.A. last year, but Chris Paul recently touted the importance of consistency in the Clippers’ chances for success next season.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT
France picked up a nice win over Argentina.
Aug 31, 2014, 7:59 PM EDT
James Harden makes the PUJIT work for him.
Aug 31, 2014, 6:29 PM EDT
The energy of Kenneth Faried helped Team USA pull away in the second half.
Aug 31, 2014, 5:31 PM EDT
Terry was never going to be a fit in Sacramento, but could be a nice veteran addition for a Rockets team that plans on contending next season.
Aug 31, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Franklin only played one NBA season, but this will open up a roster spot in Memphis.
Aug 31, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
In some ways, this new beginning in Minnesota is more interesting than if the team had simply proceeded with the status quo.
Aug 31, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
There’s a big difference between the rebuilding that’s taking place in Minnesota and what’s going on with the Sixers.
Aug 31, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Under Armour made a huge offer, but Nike has exercised its right to match.
Aug 31, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Rondo is in the same situation Kevin Love was in with Timberwolves, before he was traded to Cavaliers.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
He played solidly, particularly on defense, for the Hawks last season.
Aug 31, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Deron looks good, and he’s back on the court ahead of schedule.
- Report: Rajon Rondo wants to start season with Celtics, see how things unfold 2
- Rajon Rondo’s agent denies they asked Celtics for a trade 12
- Team USA trails at the half, then pulls away for 98-77 win over Turkey at FIBA World Cup 19
- Report: Nike nearing deal to keep Kevin Durant for next 10 years 20
- Report: Rajon Rondo has told Celtics ‘he wants out’ 68
- World Cup Day 1 roundup: Brazil with big win, Andray Blatche puts on a show 5
- USA cruises past Finland in World Cup opener, 114-55 18
- James Harden on Kobe Bryant return: “He’s 20-year-old Kobe” 34