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The Extra Pass: Four teams for three spots in West playoff race

Mar 6, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT

Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets Getty Images

Four teams. Three spots.

With a quarter of the season remaining that his how the bottom of the Western Conference shakes out.

(Minnesota is 4.5 games out of the mix but in the deep Western Conference where it likely takes 47 wins to make the playoffs, meaning they have to go 17-6 the rest of the way. I don’t see that as a likely outcome.)

That leaves Golden State, Dallas, Phoenix and Memphis all within three games of each other (and more than four games back from the conference’s top five, so those five are safe). One of those four teams will not have a chair when the music stops.

And it could be any of them.

Which one is most likely? Let’s look at their upcoming schedules — listed in the order they stand currently, including how many quality teams they play and how many they play against others in this foursome.

TEAM NAME HOME-AWAY VS. +500 VS. EACH OTHER
6. GOLDEN STATE (38-24) 13-7 10 4
7. PHOENIX (35-25, -2) 8-14 13 3
8. DALLAS (36-26, -2) 12-8 13 4
9. Memphis (34-26, -3) 9-13 13 3

What can you read into that?

• Golden State is in a relatively good spot. They have a three-game cushion over the nine seed and the easiest schedule from here on out. They don’t have any road trips that take them east of the Mississippi. Only two of their last seven games are against teams over .500. There are no guarantees but they are the most likely team to find their way into the postseason.

• Dallas plays a lot of good teams — and they have struggled against the elite in the league — but they also have the advantage of having most of their games at home, where they are 19-10 this season. If they continue on pace of winning two thirds of their home games and just go .500 on the road they are at 48 wins this season, which will almost certainly earn them a ticket to the postseason dance.

• That leaves the most likely outcome — either Memphis or Phoenix is not going to make the cut. Both have tough schedules and they play the majority of their remaining games on the road. However, Memphis is the better road team (16-11 this season to the 14-13 of Phoenix).

• Obviously the games against others in this foursome are key.

• There are a three of games between these teams in the final week of the season that could turn out to be huge:

April 12: Suns at Mavericks
April 14: Grizzlies at Suns
April 16: Mavericks at Grizzlies

  1. connorchew - Mar 6, 2014 at 8:08 AM

    Nothing better basketball get played in games that actually matter. This should be a great rest of the season

    • fanofthegame79 - Mar 6, 2014 at 10:20 AM

      I totally agree! I love this time of year in the NBA: it starts with the All-Star break (yes, I’m one of those fans who still enjoys the events), the trade deadline, the buy-out players, then the final run up to the play-offs where most of the games matter!

  2. bizieman - Mar 6, 2014 at 11:04 AM

    Clippers better hope Memphis doesn’t get in. The Griz have the Clips number.

    • RavenzGunnerz - Mar 6, 2014 at 11:30 AM

      Don’t get that…

      Clips beat Grizz in 7 games in the 2012 Playoffs
      Grizz beat Clips in 6 games in the 2013 Playoffs

      How is that having somebody’s number? The Grizz will play anybody tough. But saying they have Clips number? Come on…

  3. phillysports1 - Mar 6, 2014 at 12:26 PM

    ^ lol

  4. jcmeyer10 - Mar 6, 2014 at 12:57 PM

    Celtics have this going for them. A young man who is going to be blind soon made up a wishlist, and at the top of the list was going to a Celtics game. Got a standing O, visit from players and even Jeff Green’s shoes after the game.

  5. irvfin3 - Mar 6, 2014 at 3:17 PM

    As a Mavs fan I hope they move into at least the 7th seed. They’ve had a tougher schedule than Phoenix.

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