Mar 6, 2014, 6:02 PM EST
If you ask league executives, pretty much everyone expects a 2017 lockout. They see the owners putting in the groundwork now for another work stoppage in three years and most people see it as inevitable. The only question is how long it lasts and if it costs games.
Three years from now, the summer of 2017, is the first year that either the players or owners can opt out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — one that came after a lockout that almost cost the NBA a full season. You can be sure one side will opt out (probably the owners, who even though they made massive financial gains in the last CBA want more, because when did you ever know a rich business owner to say “we’re doing well enough now, let’s spread the wealth around”?).
Adam Silver is already throwing out some priority issues — raising the age limit is one we’ve discussed— and marshaling forces. The players are way behind on this as they continue the search for a new executive director (remember Billy Hunter was ousted after the last lockout), said former players union executive director Charles Grantham speaking with Sean Deveney of the Sporting News.
“Ideally, whether labor or management, you begin work on the next negotiation the day after you sign the last agreement,” said Grantham. “For the players, they have not been able to do that. They still need to find a director, and once they have one, they need to assemble a team and work on a strategy. They’re way behind.”
“You’re seeing somewhat of a notice put out by the NBA and the new commissioner that they have an interest in increasing the age to 20, they want a hard cap,” Grantham said. “The NBA is going to want more.”
When we say the owners are laying the groundwork, know we are talking first and foremost about the new television deal. Those negotiations are going on now, with existing rights holders ESPN/ABC and Turner Sports (TNT and the NBA Network) as well as others in on the talks. The last rights deal got the league $7.5 billion over eight years and the next deal may well double that.
Why that matters — a chuck of that money is non-refundable and will get paid in the event of a lockout. While the players will not be getting checks the owners will be to help ease the pain of keeping the business operations of the team afloat. The owners can simply hold out longer than the players.
The players and their new executive director — they are reportedly down to two candidates, both of whom spoke to the player union All-Star weekend in New Orleans — have some very basic strategy to figure out.
In the last lockout the share of the “basketball related income” (BRI) that the players got went from 57 percent of the pool to basically 50 percent. That was a massive giveback. They are never getting all of that back. The question is do the players want to “go to the mattresses” (to use the Godfather term) for maybe a percentage point, or do they hold fast on the percentage (no way the players go for a hard cap, that will cost a season at least), focus on what other things they want out of a negotiation and go in with a plan to get those things. Then say they want to find a way to increase that BRI pool as a way to increase salaries (a new national television deal certainly helps that, it will jump the salary cap/luxury tax numbers considerably when it kicks in a few years down the line).
Whatever the players grand plan ends up being, they are not strategizing that right now, Grantham is right in noting. And he’s also spot on that the owners are.
Nov 22, 2014, 1:56 AM EST
I missed JaVale McGee last year.
Nov 22, 2014, 12:01 AM EST
LeBron with a nice highlight package early in Friday’s contest against the Wizards.
Nov 21, 2014, 10:45 PM EST
Bledsoe said yesterday that Philadelphia would lose to a college team.
Nov 21, 2014, 9:46 PM EST
He will not play against the Mavericks, at least.
Nov 21, 2014, 8:30 PM EST
Kirilenko appears to be done in Brooklyn.
Michele Roberts: NBA agreed to work with union before attempt to ‘prove its toughness’ with Jeff Taylor suspension
Nov 21, 2014, 7:30 PM EST
National Basketball Players Association executive director: NBA ‘chose to bend to the pressure it feels from the current media spotlight’
Nov 21, 2014, 6:57 PM EST
Another top pick down. This sucks.
Nov 21, 2014, 5:59 PM EST
Any story that includes a chance meeting and conversation with Jerry Buss outside a men’s restroom is going to be golden.
Nov 21, 2014, 5:15 PM EST
You all know the Sixers would win easily, right?
Nov 21, 2014, 4:30 PM EST
Former No. 1 pick knows he fought perception due to Wizards’ struggles
Nov 21, 2014, 3:45 PM EST
LeBron said the same thing about Chris Bosh.
Nov 21, 2014, 3:02 PM EST
Kobe calls owners ability to pressure players into discounts ‘brilliant’ — but it won’t work on him
Nov 21, 2014, 2:12 PM EST
Hornets forward makes right move by accepting lengthy ban
Nov 21, 2014, 1:39 PM EST
Martin suffered injury against Knicks on Wednesday
Nov 21, 2014, 1:01 PM EST
Did Bulls center think Cousins flopped?
Nov 21, 2014, 12:25 PM EST
Brooklyn forward had fallen from rotation
Nov 21, 2014, 11:47 AM EST
Mark Cuban says technology will give his team an edge on the court
Nov 21, 2014, 11:08 AM EST
How long will Celtics general manager keep that stance?
Nov 21, 2014, 10:29 AM EST
Yup, Richardson is still hanging around the 76ers
Nov 21, 2014, 9:51 AM EST
Cavaliers and Rockets were reportedly interested in Timberwolves forward
- Kobe Bryant says he took large enough discount for Lakers to contend 49
- Report: Jeff Taylor won’t appeal 24-game suspension 2
- Timberwolves’ Kevin Martin out indefinitely after scoring 31 points with fractured wrist 8
- Andrei Kirilenko leaves Nets for road trip, Lionel Hollins unsure if he’ll return 14
- Report: Danny Ainge telling other teams he won’t trade Rajon Rondo 13
- PBT Extra: How would the NBA benefit from legalized sports betting? 2
- NBPA ready to appeal Jeffery Taylor’s 24-game suspension 12
- Alex Len, No. 5 pick in a draft full of players who looked like busts as rookies, showing he doesn’t deserve the label 5