Mar 6, 2014, 6:02 PM EDT
If you ask league executives, pretty much everyone expects a 2017 lockout. They see the owners putting in the groundwork now for another work stoppage in three years and most people see it as inevitable. The only question is how long it lasts and if it costs games.
Three years from now, the summer of 2017, is the first year that either the players or owners can opt out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — one that came after a lockout that almost cost the NBA a full season. You can be sure one side will opt out (probably the owners, who even though they made massive financial gains in the last CBA want more, because when did you ever know a rich business owner to say “we’re doing well enough now, let’s spread the wealth around”?).
Adam Silver is already throwing out some priority issues — raising the age limit is one we’ve discussed— and marshaling forces. The players are way behind on this as they continue the search for a new executive director (remember Billy Hunter was ousted after the last lockout), said former players union executive director Charles Grantham speaking with Sean Deveney of the Sporting News.
“Ideally, whether labor or management, you begin work on the next negotiation the day after you sign the last agreement,” said Grantham. “For the players, they have not been able to do that. They still need to find a director, and once they have one, they need to assemble a team and work on a strategy. They’re way behind.”
“You’re seeing somewhat of a notice put out by the NBA and the new commissioner that they have an interest in increasing the age to 20, they want a hard cap,” Grantham said. “The NBA is going to want more.”
When we say the owners are laying the groundwork, know we are talking first and foremost about the new television deal. Those negotiations are going on now, with existing rights holders ESPN/ABC and Turner Sports (TNT and the NBA Network) as well as others in on the talks. The last rights deal got the league $7.5 billion over eight years and the next deal may well double that.
Why that matters — a chuck of that money is non-refundable and will get paid in the event of a lockout. While the players will not be getting checks the owners will be to help ease the pain of keeping the business operations of the team afloat. The owners can simply hold out longer than the players.
The players and their new executive director — they are reportedly down to two candidates, both of whom spoke to the player union All-Star weekend in New Orleans — have some very basic strategy to figure out.
In the last lockout the share of the “basketball related income” (BRI) that the players got went from 57 percent of the pool to basically 50 percent. That was a massive giveback. They are never getting all of that back. The question is do the players want to “go to the mattresses” (to use the Godfather term) for maybe a percentage point, or do they hold fast on the percentage (no way the players go for a hard cap, that will cost a season at least), focus on what other things they want out of a negotiation and go in with a plan to get those things. Then say they want to find a way to increase that BRI pool as a way to increase salaries (a new national television deal certainly helps that, it will jump the salary cap/luxury tax numbers considerably when it kicks in a few years down the line).
Whatever the players grand plan ends up being, they are not strategizing that right now, Grantham is right in noting. And he’s also spot on that the owners are.
Aug 21, 2014, 1:59 PM EDT
Video of Durant telling this humorous story.
Aug 21, 2014, 1:08 PM EDT
Silver says it’s ultimately the individual athlete’s personal choice.
Aug 21, 2014, 12:10 PM EDT
Being Jeremy Lin’s parent must be an interesting experience. What do you say to him to correct him.
Aug 21, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
It’s a great move, one Irving pulls off almost ever game.
Aug 21, 2014, 10:45 AM EDT
Patience is the right play here. And patience is never popular with any fan base.
Aug 21, 2014, 10:15 AM EDT
Coming back off foot surgery, this is a good thing.
Aug 21, 2014, 9:45 AM EDT
Blatt can coach, but if it takes a season for the Cavaliers to find their identity (as it did with LeBron in Miami) will he get the chance to stick around for it?
Aug 21, 2014, 9:16 AM EDT
If you’re now rebuilding in Minnesota, why trade Bennett?
Aug 21, 2014, 8:44 AM EDT
Drummond is still a likely cut,
Aug 21, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
It’s all business for KD with Roc Nation getting in the act.
Aug 21, 2014, 1:33 AM EDT
He also was a scoring machine at the showcase in Las Vegas.
Aug 20, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
16 players will practice and be available for Friday’s game against Puerto Rico, but the roster needs to be trimmed to 12 in advance of the FIBA World Cup.
Aug 20, 2014, 8:44 PM EDT
Rose hasn’t practiced since playing 24 minutes in Saturday’s win over Brazil.
Aug 20, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
Stephen Curry says yes, Kevin Durant says no.
Aug 20, 2014, 6:19 PM EDT
Nedovic had hoped to play for Serbia, but couldn’t get medical clearance.
Aug 20, 2014, 5:07 PM EDT
Video game Curry doesn’t come close to shooting as well as the real life version.
Aug 20, 2014, 4:12 PM EDT
If Bledsoe decides to play for the qualifying offer, he’ll almost certainly bolt as an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Aug 20, 2014, 2:59 PM EDT
Aug 20, 2014, 2:04 PM EDT
Strangest comparison ever. And pretty accurate.
- Adam Silver: NBA stars playing in international competition face ‘a big risk’ 2
- Derrick Rose says he’ll play Friday vs. Puerto Rico 7
- Report: Don’t be so sure on Anthony Bennett to Philadelphia rumors 25
- Report: Nike gets chance to match 10-year, $265 million offer to Kevin Durant from Under Armour 14
- Should NBA coaches get NFL style challenge flags? 18
- Report: Suns discussing trade possibilities for Eric Bledsoe 31
- Report: Sixers may look to trade for Amar’e Stoudemire at this season’s deadline 32
- Kevin Durant reiterates that rest was his reason for withdrawing from Team USA 10