Mar 6, 2014, 6:02 PM EST
If you ask league executives, pretty much everyone expects a 2017 lockout. They see the owners putting in the groundwork now for another work stoppage in three years and most people see it as inevitable. The only question is how long it lasts and if it costs games.
Three years from now, the summer of 2017, is the first year that either the players or owners can opt out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — one that came after a lockout that almost cost the NBA a full season. You can be sure one side will opt out (probably the owners, who even though they made massive financial gains in the last CBA want more, because when did you ever know a rich business owner to say “we’re doing well enough now, let’s spread the wealth around”?).
Adam Silver is already throwing out some priority issues — raising the age limit is one we’ve discussed— and marshaling forces. The players are way behind on this as they continue the search for a new executive director (remember Billy Hunter was ousted after the last lockout), said former players union executive director Charles Grantham speaking with Sean Deveney of the Sporting News.
“Ideally, whether labor or management, you begin work on the next negotiation the day after you sign the last agreement,” said Grantham. “For the players, they have not been able to do that. They still need to find a director, and once they have one, they need to assemble a team and work on a strategy. They’re way behind.”
“You’re seeing somewhat of a notice put out by the NBA and the new commissioner that they have an interest in increasing the age to 20, they want a hard cap,” Grantham said. “The NBA is going to want more.”
When we say the owners are laying the groundwork, know we are talking first and foremost about the new television deal. Those negotiations are going on now, with existing rights holders ESPN/ABC and Turner Sports (TNT and the NBA Network) as well as others in on the talks. The last rights deal got the league $7.5 billion over eight years and the next deal may well double that.
Why that matters — a chuck of that money is non-refundable and will get paid in the event of a lockout. While the players will not be getting checks the owners will be to help ease the pain of keeping the business operations of the team afloat. The owners can simply hold out longer than the players.
The players and their new executive director — they are reportedly down to two candidates, both of whom spoke to the player union All-Star weekend in New Orleans — have some very basic strategy to figure out.
In the last lockout the share of the “basketball related income” (BRI) that the players got went from 57 percent of the pool to basically 50 percent. That was a massive giveback. They are never getting all of that back. The question is do the players want to “go to the mattresses” (to use the Godfather term) for maybe a percentage point, or do they hold fast on the percentage (no way the players go for a hard cap, that will cost a season at least), focus on what other things they want out of a negotiation and go in with a plan to get those things. Then say they want to find a way to increase that BRI pool as a way to increase salaries (a new national television deal certainly helps that, it will jump the salary cap/luxury tax numbers considerably when it kicks in a few years down the line).
Whatever the players grand plan ends up being, they are not strategizing that right now, Grantham is right in noting. And he’s also spot on that the owners are.
Dec 18, 2014, 1:36 PM EST
Trade talks for Celtics point guard heating up
Dec 18, 2014, 12:55 PM EST
Where does this rank among LeBron’s most-lopsided losses?
Dec 18, 2014, 12:22 PM EST
It would be very difficult for the Clippers to find a deal Minnesota would like.
Dec 18, 2014, 11:51 AM EST
Plenty of photos and a recap of this week’s launch event from Jordan Brand’s Terminal 23 space in NYC.
Dec 18, 2014, 11:13 AM EST
This would shake up the balance of power in the West.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:21 AM EST
It’s is the ninja turtle time of year.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:12 AM EST
He turned the table on the Clippers and dunked on them.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
Don’t worry. He still got off a jumper (which he missed)
Dec 18, 2014, 2:05 AM EST
James Harden and Dwyane Wade broke the 40 point barrier.
Dec 18, 2014, 1:31 AM EST
Another fine defensive moment from James Harden.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:54 AM EST
I can’t wait until the Western Conference playoffs.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:46 PM EST
He walked off under his own power but did not return.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:33 PM EST
Rockets, Kings and Knicks also reportedly inquiring about Celtics point guard
Dec 17, 2014, 10:25 PM EST
In related news, Hornets got a ton of public funding to upgrade arena
Dec 17, 2014, 9:30 PM EST
Rapper dubs Kyle Lowry ‘baby-faced assassin’
Dec 17, 2014, 8:35 PM EST
Trail Blazers guard would be a perfect fit in Cleveland
Dec 17, 2014, 7:39 PM EST
The offers are not going to be big, will Stan Van Gundy eventually give in and take one?
Dec 17, 2014, 6:18 PM EST
He is more likely to be moved than Rondo.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:31 PM EST
There are no good answers for the Bucks, or for other rookies to reward.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:06 PM EST
More serious talks doesn’t mean a deal is near.
- Report: Mavericks trading for Rajon Rondo could happen ‘sooner rather than later’ 0
- Carmelo Anthony introduces his latest signature shoe, the Jordan Melo M11 6
- Report: Rondo “open” to re-signing in Dallas, Houston if traded there 14
- PBT’s Wednesday Night NBA Winners/Losers: You will not question if Memphis is legit again 17
- Grizzlies top Spurs in triple overtime. Best game of the season. So far. 4
- Report: Mavericks and Celtics in ‘substantive discussion’ about Rajon Rondo trade 23
- Report: Celtics now more willing to trade Rajon Rondo 13
- Tyson Chandler says he feels sorry for Carmelo Anthony 19