Mar 6, 2014, 6:02 PM EDT
If you ask league executives, pretty much everyone expects a 2017 lockout. They see the owners putting in the groundwork now for another work stoppage in three years and most people see it as inevitable. The only question is how long it lasts and if it costs games.
Three years from now, the summer of 2017, is the first year that either the players or owners can opt out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — one that came after a lockout that almost cost the NBA a full season. You can be sure one side will opt out (probably the owners, who even though they made massive financial gains in the last CBA want more, because when did you ever know a rich business owner to say “we’re doing well enough now, let’s spread the wealth around”?).
Adam Silver is already throwing out some priority issues — raising the age limit is one we’ve discussed— and marshaling forces. The players are way behind on this as they continue the search for a new executive director (remember Billy Hunter was ousted after the last lockout), said former players union executive director Charles Grantham speaking with Sean Deveney of the Sporting News.
“Ideally, whether labor or management, you begin work on the next negotiation the day after you sign the last agreement,” said Grantham. “For the players, they have not been able to do that. They still need to find a director, and once they have one, they need to assemble a team and work on a strategy. They’re way behind.”
“You’re seeing somewhat of a notice put out by the NBA and the new commissioner that they have an interest in increasing the age to 20, they want a hard cap,” Grantham said. “The NBA is going to want more.”
When we say the owners are laying the groundwork, know we are talking first and foremost about the new television deal. Those negotiations are going on now, with existing rights holders ESPN/ABC and Turner Sports (TNT and the NBA Network) as well as others in on the talks. The last rights deal got the league $7.5 billion over eight years and the next deal may well double that.
Why that matters — a chuck of that money is non-refundable and will get paid in the event of a lockout. While the players will not be getting checks the owners will be to help ease the pain of keeping the business operations of the team afloat. The owners can simply hold out longer than the players.
The players and their new executive director — they are reportedly down to two candidates, both of whom spoke to the player union All-Star weekend in New Orleans — have some very basic strategy to figure out.
In the last lockout the share of the “basketball related income” (BRI) that the players got went from 57 percent of the pool to basically 50 percent. That was a massive giveback. They are never getting all of that back. The question is do the players want to “go to the mattresses” (to use the Godfather term) for maybe a percentage point, or do they hold fast on the percentage (no way the players go for a hard cap, that will cost a season at least), focus on what other things they want out of a negotiation and go in with a plan to get those things. Then say they want to find a way to increase that BRI pool as a way to increase salaries (a new national television deal certainly helps that, it will jump the salary cap/luxury tax numbers considerably when it kicks in a few years down the line).
Whatever the players grand plan ends up being, they are not strategizing that right now, Grantham is right in noting. And he’s also spot on that the owners are.
Sep 18, 2014, 12:15 AM EDT
No Robert Horry, no Igor Kokoskov
Sep 17, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
Milwaukee will likely waive former Temple center before season
Sep 17, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
Clippers rushed to upgrade from Hollins as backup center, the role Hollins will likely hold in Sacramento
Sep 17, 2014, 9:25 PM EDT
Sanchez played for St. John’s, Dominican Republic national team
Sep 17, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
Miami also hires Chris Quinn promotes David Fizdale
Sep 17, 2014, 7:35 PM EDT
Asik and Davis could be one of the NBA’s best defensive front lines.
Sep 17, 2014, 6:48 PM EDT
Brooklyn needs someone behind Brook Lopez and Mason Plumlee
Sep 17, 2014, 5:55 PM EDT
This is a killer addition.
Sep 17, 2014, 4:59 PM EDT
Sep 17, 2014, 4:12 PM EDT
Five games is the standard marijuana suspension, and you have to test positive three separate times to earn it.
Sep 17, 2014, 3:26 PM EDT
Jennings only shot 52 percent around the rim last year, maybe the muscle helps. Maybe.
Sep 17, 2014, 2:55 PM EDT
Chris Bosh is taller than Ellen DeGeneres, which leads to much humor. I guess.
Sep 17, 2014, 1:59 PM EDT
His veteran, playoff-tested presence will be big on this team.
Sep 17, 2014, 1:19 PM EDT
This is all we want to see out of the Timberwolves anyway.
Sep 17, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
No. Just… no.
Sep 17, 2014, 12:25 PM EDT
Cousins has won over Team USA’s brain trust.
Sep 17, 2014, 11:44 AM EDT
There’s a lot of room for improvement, let’s just say.
Sep 17, 2014, 11:05 AM EDT
Kyrie is going to have to adjust to a different role on the Cavs, but if he does watch out.
Sep 17, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
Rajon Rondo looms over everything – on and off the court
Sep 17, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT
This is long overdue.
- LeBron James on Kyrie Irving: “I believe Kyrie can be the best point guard in the league.” 16
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Boston Celtics 2
- Dwight Howard’s driver’s license in Florida suspended, he racked up 10 red light violations in Orlando 12
- Tim Duncan to appear in “The Punisher” comic book 6
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: New York Knicks 10
- Klay Thompson’s agent: Thompson better two-way shooting guard than Kobe Bryant 50
- Report: Greg Oden’s drinking an issue during season, alleged domestic assault 31
- Kevin Durant calls Allen Iverson “pound for pound” best ever 29