Mar 6, 2014, 6:02 PM EDT
If you ask league executives, pretty much everyone expects a 2017 lockout. They see the owners putting in the groundwork now for another work stoppage in three years and most people see it as inevitable. The only question is how long it lasts and if it costs games.
Three years from now, the summer of 2017, is the first year that either the players or owners can opt out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — one that came after a lockout that almost cost the NBA a full season. You can be sure one side will opt out (probably the owners, who even though they made massive financial gains in the last CBA want more, because when did you ever know a rich business owner to say “we’re doing well enough now, let’s spread the wealth around”?).
Adam Silver is already throwing out some priority issues — raising the age limit is one we’ve discussed— and marshaling forces. The players are way behind on this as they continue the search for a new executive director (remember Billy Hunter was ousted after the last lockout), said former players union executive director Charles Grantham speaking with Sean Deveney of the Sporting News.
“Ideally, whether labor or management, you begin work on the next negotiation the day after you sign the last agreement,” said Grantham. “For the players, they have not been able to do that. They still need to find a director, and once they have one, they need to assemble a team and work on a strategy. They’re way behind.”
“You’re seeing somewhat of a notice put out by the NBA and the new commissioner that they have an interest in increasing the age to 20, they want a hard cap,” Grantham said. “The NBA is going to want more.”
When we say the owners are laying the groundwork, know we are talking first and foremost about the new television deal. Those negotiations are going on now, with existing rights holders ESPN/ABC and Turner Sports (TNT and the NBA Network) as well as others in on the talks. The last rights deal got the league $7.5 billion over eight years and the next deal may well double that.
Why that matters — a chuck of that money is non-refundable and will get paid in the event of a lockout. While the players will not be getting checks the owners will be to help ease the pain of keeping the business operations of the team afloat. The owners can simply hold out longer than the players.
The players and their new executive director — they are reportedly down to two candidates, both of whom spoke to the player union All-Star weekend in New Orleans — have some very basic strategy to figure out.
In the last lockout the share of the “basketball related income” (BRI) that the players got went from 57 percent of the pool to basically 50 percent. That was a massive giveback. They are never getting all of that back. The question is do the players want to “go to the mattresses” (to use the Godfather term) for maybe a percentage point, or do they hold fast on the percentage (no way the players go for a hard cap, that will cost a season at least), focus on what other things they want out of a negotiation and go in with a plan to get those things. Then say they want to find a way to increase that BRI pool as a way to increase salaries (a new national television deal certainly helps that, it will jump the salary cap/luxury tax numbers considerably when it kicks in a few years down the line).
Whatever the players grand plan ends up being, they are not strategizing that right now, Grantham is right in noting. And he’s also spot on that the owners are.
Mar 29, 2015, 12:26 AM EDT
The Golden State Warriors are the team to beat out West.
Enes Kanter rips Jazz, calls his time there a ‘three-and-a-half-year frustration'; gets booed by fans
Mar 28, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Kanter was traded to the Thunder midseason.
Mar 28, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
MJ’s still got it.
Lakers coach Byron Scott says opposing players have told him during games they’d ‘love to be in L.A. next year’
Mar 28, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Big, if true.
Mar 28, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
Legislation was signed into law in Indiana last week, and has been criticized as one that could legalize discrimination.
Mar 28, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
Hornets, still fighting for a playoff spot, catch a break.
Mar 28, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Van Gundy coached five seasons in Orlando, but was fired after the way the Dwight Howard debacle played out.
Mar 28, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Kerr was joking, and making light of a mini-controversy that occurred recently with the Cavaliers.
Mar 28, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Clark played key bench minutes the same day he was signed.
Mar 28, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Cuban went off after the Mavericks were blown out by the Spurs.
Mar 28, 2015, 9:45 AM EDT
Warriors keep rolling, while the Grizzlies are starting to feel like a first round loss.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
Highlight-reel play came near the end of a loss to the Nets.
Mar 27, 2015, 11:44 PM EDT
LeBron refused to be dismissive of a seemingly harmless regular season loss.
Mar 27, 2015, 10:30 PM EDT
O’Neal made the remarks while being inducted into the Orlando Magic Hall of Fame.
Mar 27, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
The injuries continue to pile up for the Rockets.
Mar 27, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
The battle between Green and Doc Rivers continues in the funniest of ways.
Mar 27, 2015, 7:25 PM EDT
Blatt knows James is unlikely to get the league-wide award this season.
Mar 27, 2015, 6:12 PM EDT
The Thunder defense has become a mess, which is bad for the playoffs.
Mar 27, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
What is in James Harden’s beard?
Mar 27, 2015, 4:32 PM EDT
He is likely a middle second round pick if he comes out.
- Mark Cuban rips officials, NBA: ‘It’s criminal’ how Monta Ellis doesn’t get calls 20
- Shaquille O’Neal says he regrets leaving Magic for Lakers 38
- Cavaliers coach David Blatt: ‘LeBron James is our MVP’ 20
- No Durant, what does that mean for Thunder in these playoffs? Trouble. 15
- Kevin Durant to have third foot surgery; is done for season, playoffs 39
- Goran Dragic leading feisty Heat’s playoff push 29
- NBA Draft prospect matchups to watch in NCAA Tourament this weekend 2
- Report: LeBron James frustrated with Kevin Love for not fitting in 85