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Don’t think Andrew Wiggins is a lock as No. 1 pick. He’s not.

Nov 13, 2013, 12:44 PM EDT

Andrew Wiggins AP

We’ve blown him up — when you talk about NBA teams taking this season we call it “riggin for Wiggins.” As in Andrew Wiggins, the Kansas freshman who had 22 points and 10 boards, plus played some good defense, in leading his team past Duke Tuesday night.

Wiggins is atop every serious mock draft right now and with good reason — he is a tremendous athlete who has a variety of shakes, hesitation moves and more to create his own shot. And that shot is getting better. He’s gotten the most hype of someone entering the draft since the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant draft. Or maybe back to LeBron James. That kind of hype is not fair to Wiggins and not something he brought on himself (by all reports he’s pretty humble considering) but it is his reality as the anointed No. 1 pick in the next NBA draft.

Except Wiggins isn’t a lock to be the top pick. Not close.

The reason franchises are “tanking” (or whatever institutional rebuilding word you want to use) this year is not one player but a number of them who could change a franchise’s fortunes.

“Anyone that tells you that Andrew Wiggins — or any of the three freshmen — is a lock for the No. 1 pick does not know what they’re talking about,” Rob Dauster of NBC’s CollegeBasketballTalk told PBT. “And the point that needs to be driven home here is that this has nothing to do with Wiggins as a prospect. He’s phenomenal. It has everything to so with the fact that Julius Randle and Jabari Parker are also franchise-changing talents, and that’s before you factor in guys like Marcus Smart, Joel Embiid, Doug McDermott and Dante Exum. There’s a sick amount of talent in this draft. Bottom line.

“Think about it like this: Minnesota got Kevin Love 5th in 2008. Are they complaining?”

It’s not just college basketball and draft experts saying that.

Look at what one scout and one GM told Marc Spears of Yahoo Sports.

“Until Wiggins learns how to play hard,” one NBA scout said, “he’s Kansas’ third-best freshman.”

“He’s not LeBron,” one NBA general manager said. “It’s not his fault regarding all the hype. People say he’s pretty humble. He’s a top-three pick for sure, if not No. 1.”

Or look at what another scout told Scott Howard-Cooper at NBA.com when asked if Wiggins was a lock at No. 1.

“I think in the media’s mind he is. But just in talking to one of our guys around the league, he said Wiggins was the third-best player in their practices. The media has Wiggins way ahead. I just don’t think the NBA has him way ahead.”

Part of a scout’s job is to pick apart a kid’s game and see if you can knock it off a pedestal. And no 18-year-old has anything resembling a complete game. Players evolve, ranking change. A year ago it seemed Nerlens Noel was headed for the No. 1 spot but an injury saw him fall down the board come draft night. Let’s hope none of these young college stars suffers that devastating and injury (Noel is not expected to play for the Sixers at all this season) but the point is that things change.

It’s not just one team that is going to be thrilled winning the NBA lottery next year. End up in the top seven and you are going to land a real stud player.

That is why tanking is going to be an issue all season.

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