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ProBasketballTalk 2013-14 Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

Oct 7, 2013, 8:45 AM EDT

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Durant reacts during NBA Global Game against Fenerbahce Ulker in Istanbul Reuters

Last season: The Thunder finished the regular season with a record of 60-22, which was good for the number one playoff seed in the Western Conference.

Thanks to the unfortunate knee injury that occurred in Game 2 of the team’s first round playoff series against the Rockets, however, OKC quite literally limped to the finish line, and was overmatched by a Memphis Grizzlies team in the second round that took care of them easily in five games.

Signature highlight from last season: The play that was most impactful was, of course, Westbrook’s injury in the playoffs. But let’s keep it positive here, and with too many ridiculous Kevin Durant highlights to choose from, let’s go with this explosive dunk from Westbrook on the break that he threw down over Golden State’s Stephen Curry.

Key player changes: OKC didn’t make any additions that would lead you to believe the roster this year is better than it was a season ago, and lost it’s only reliable scorer from the bench unit in free agency.

  • IN: Rookies Steven Adams (drafted with the 10th overall pick) and Andre Roberson (drafted with the 26th overall pick by Minnesota, then dealt to OKC on draft night) are the only new faces with guaranteed contracts in place for the coming season.
  • OUT: Kevin Martin was allowed to leave in free agency, and although he got more from the Timberwolves than he would have been worth to the Thunder (especially when retaining him would’ve meant entering luxury tax territory), his loss will be noticed, especially in the early part of the season. Ronnie Brewer was a midseason acquisition, but he didn’t have much impact and ended up signing with the Rockets this summer.

Keys to the Thunder’s season:

1) The health of Russell Westbrook: We know Westbrook is going to miss at least the first 4-6 weeks of the regular season following an additional knee surgery that took place just recently. What we don’t know is how long it’ll be before he returns to form as one of the most dynamic and explosive players in the game today.

The timeline of Westbrook’s ascent back to the player he once was is going to make all the difference in how the Thunder’s regular season plays out. The team is obviously looking at playing deep into the postseason, after finishing with 60 wins last year and making it to the Finals in the season before that. But in the midst of a crowded Western Conference stacked with at least six powerful teams, finishing lower in the standings will make the desired playoff results that much more difficult to achieve.

2) The development of the bench: OKC traded away James Harden before the beginning of last season, and while history is not going to look kindly on the deal from the Thunder’s perspective, at least they got a semi-serviceable scorer in Kevin Martin in return who could fill that role off the bench. With Martin now gone in free agency (and with no one added to replace him), the Thunder are going to need to get production from the reserve unit somewhere if they’re going to be able to compete with the league’s elite teams.

The hope is that Reggie Jackson, who saw heavy minutes during the playoffs and performed better than expected, can continue to develop into a reliable contributor that he’s already shown signs of proving to be. But it would be nice if Jeremy Lamb, DeAndre Liggins or one of the freshly-drafted rookies could contribute as well, and there’s just no guarantee that they’ll come along as quickly as the Thunder need them to in order to remove some of the burden from the starters’ shoulders.

3) Kevin Durant, MVP? This could be the year that Kevin Durant unseats LeBron James as league MVP, for a variety of reasons. First and foremost on the list could be voter fatigue — we all know that James is considered to be the game’s best player, but if the Heat coast a little during the regular season and Durant is forced to put up ridiculous numbers to keep his team in the hunt while Westbrook is out, it would be easy to see him quickly becoming the favorite to take home the award if those making the call are looking to give it to someone besides James.

Durant is capable of dominating offensively, and will be expected to do so with his All-Star teammate sidelined. He could take on an even bigger role as the season progresses depending on Westbrook’s recovery and whether or not he gets much help from his teammates. If he puts up MVP-caliber numbers, there’s no reason the Thunder can’t be right where they need to be by the time the season concludes, despite all of the apparent challenges.

Why you should watch the Thunder: Durant and Westbrook are arguably two of the league’s top-five players. Beyond that, the intrigue with this Thunder team runs deep. Can Durant carry them to a high place in the regular season standings, or will the team collapse under heavy expectations, and due to Westbrook’s injury and the lack of a capable bench? There’s drama here, and that’s exciting.

Prediction: 53-29, good for a top-five finish in the West. Durant will need to come through with that MVP season for the Thunder to be in the championship conversation, especially in a deeper-than-usual Western Conference. While he’s certainly capable of that, the questions surrounding Westbrook and the reserve unit are too plentiful for the team to warrant anything more than a forecast of a similar outcome as it experienced a season ago — a second round playoff loss.

  1. grapenutz08 - Oct 7, 2013 at 9:29 AM

    Lol!!! 5th in the west??? OK. But if you put the Lakers 8th in the “stacked west”….your projections will lose credibility

    • Kurt Helin - Oct 9, 2013 at 6:03 PM

      The difference between first and fifth in the West last year was five games. They will be without Westbrook long enough to slip 4-5 games.

  2. soakes88 - Oct 7, 2013 at 9:52 AM

    Liggins was cut a few weeks ago

  3. abchome - Oct 7, 2013 at 9:55 AM

    DeAndre Liggins was waived last month.

  4. johngalt1783 - Oct 7, 2013 at 10:44 AM

    I have at at 51 wins and 6th seed, so we are close

    1. Clippers 60
    2. Rockets 55
    3. Warriors 55
    4. Grizzlies 53
    5. Spurs 52
    6. Thunder 51
    7. Nuggets 47
    8. T-Wolves 40

    • adamsjohn714 - Oct 7, 2013 at 3:54 PM

      I doubt the 8 seed in the West will have a losing record.

    • wowwowbad - Oct 8, 2013 at 4:03 AM

      Clippers 60 wins?
      Ya think Doc Rivers really can change that much?
      Blake Griffin is NO NBA STAR despite his jumping and dunking.
      I personally don’t believe Doc can replicate his success he had in Boston, even he has the best point guard in the NBA, Chris Paul.

    • tfyjman - Oct 19, 2013 at 1:52 PM

      Seriously? You’d have them slip all the way down to sixth? Personally I’m not putting the Rockets over them, neither the Grizzlies despite their besting them in the playoffs.

  5. legend30 - Oct 7, 2013 at 11:33 AM

    They still have Kendrick Perkins… So another season without Durant winning a ring…

    • loungefly74 - Oct 8, 2013 at 11:27 AM

      he is quickly becoming the “Dan Marino” of the NBA…

  6. zoomy123 - Oct 7, 2013 at 10:34 PM

    Kevin Durant unseat LBJ as MVP?! What are you smoking?

    • antistratfordian - Oct 8, 2013 at 3:29 PM

      Yeah, not at their projected 53 wins. Not happening. They’d have to win about 65 to keep pace with Miami.

  7. davincizsp - Oct 8, 2013 at 12:31 AM

    I think Spurs will end up higher and Lakers will still make playoffs somehow

  8. philaw123 - Oct 21, 2013 at 1:11 PM

    The schedule is pretty good to OKC during the projected 6 weeks without Westbrook with only 1 back to back on Nov 13 & 14, Clippers and Warriors (both on the road) and facing most of their tough opponents at home. They could easily open up 6-0 before dropping those 2 tough games, catch a breather at Milwaukee, then face 4 tough opponents in a 6 game home stand. December 3 & 4 is their next back to back but they face relatively easier opponents in the Kings and Blazers and have a good chance of sweeping those to start that month off great. The next 6 games shouldn’t be too tough with the Pacers and Grizz being the possible road bumps. In the projected 23 games that Westbrook may miss, I think the Thunder could come out with a potential 16-7 record. If they come close to that, then I think 58 wins is quite doable with Westbrook on board the rest of the way. But I’m no expert so take this with a grain of salt.

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