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ProBasketballTalk 2013-14 Preview: Washington Wizards

Oct 3, 2013, 8:45 AM EDT

Bradley Beal, John Wall

Last season: The Wizards were pretty good when healthy, so they were pretty terrible.

John Wall, Nene and Bradley Beal all battled injuries, and Washington finished 29-53. But looking closer, the Wizards actually weren’t half bad when their good players were healthy.

  • With Wall: 24-25
  • With Wall and Nene: 22-19
  • With Wall, Nene and Beal: 15-7

Signature highlight from last season: At home last season, the Wizards beat the Eastern Conference’s top six teams and four of the Western Conference’s top five teams (Spurs excepted). That impressive show for the home fans included Washington’s play of the year:

 

Key player changes: The Wizards drafted Otto Porter and Glen Rice Jr., adding two players who could crack the rotation this season. They also signed Al Harrington and Eric Maynor to fortify their depth. Otherwise, Washington stood pat.

Keys to the Wizards’ season: 

1) Has John Wall taken the next step? Quietly, Wall shot well from the perimeter late last season, perhaps filling the biggest hole in his game. But it’s also possible that was too small a sample to mean real improvement. The Wizards gave Wall a max contract, because they believe he can at least be the best player on a playoff team, and so do I. But Wall is so dynamic, his ceiling is superstar. If he reaches that level, expectations will ramp up in a hurry for the Wizards.

2) How healthy will Washington be? John Wall (33 games), Bradley Beal (26 games), Trevor Ariza (26 games) and Nene (21 games) all missed a substantial number of games last season. This year, Emeka Okafor is already hurt and so is Chris Singleton. Ariza and Nene have a history of injury , and they’re at the age when bodies sometimes breakdown. Wall and Beal are more likely to play a full season, but between the bunch, Washington is probably relying on too many players whose odds of being injured are higher than the average NBAer. 

3) Will the Wizards make the playoffs? Obviously a lot of smaller questions will determine this large one, but a postseason berth would be huge in Washington. The Wizards have sacrificed long-term upside to build a team capable of winning as soon as possible. A sixth straight season ending before the playoffs could mean big changes, from general manager Ernie Grunfeld to coach Randy Wittman and on down.

Why you should watch the Wizards: John Wall, for my money, is the NBA’s fastest player end-to-end with the ball in his hands. Watching him whir can be jaw-dropping, and shooters like Bradley Beal and Martell Webster ensure Wall has space to operate.

For those into ruin porn, Jan Vesely has a great combination. He plays with energy and without skills, increasing the odds something crazy happens when he nears the ball.

Prediction: 44-38. John Wall has gotten better in each of his three seasons, and he’s my pick for 2013-14 Most Improved Player. The Wizards have surrounded him with a well-balanced team, meaning they’ll get the most out of their talent, because everyone can play to their strengths rather than having to compensate elsewhere. If they stay relatively healthy, the Wizards should make the playoffs. Unlike last year, I think they’re deep enough to suffer slightly worse-than-average injury and still reach the postseason – and with Okafor already out, they might have to prove it.

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