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ProBasketballTalk 2013-14 Preview: Toronto Raptors

Sep 19, 2013, 8:44 AM EDT

Raptors Gay prepares to throw the ball into play from the end court in the first half of their NBA game against the Celtics in Toronto Reuters

Last season: Raptors’ fans went into the season thinking the playoffs were a possibility, but it didn’t take long for that ship to run aground on the rocks of reality. The team defense struggled, Andrea Bargnani was Andrea Bargnani, Jonas Valanciunas looked like rookie, Kyle Lowry battled injuries, nothing went as planned and everything fell apart.

But near the trade deadline the Raptors made a bold move, trading for Rudy Gay (from Memphis). It breathed life into the team, who went on to have 34 wins and finish ninth in the East. It was a move that provided hope for the fans, even if it couldn’t save GM Bryan Colangelo’s job.

Signature highlight from last season: With an athletic team there were a few to choose from but we’ll take DeMar DeRozan with the game winner vs. Orlando.

Key player changes: The biggest offseason move wasn’t a player, it was getting GM Masai Ujiri out of Denver to take over the organization. Under  Colangelo the Raptors were an organization  without a rudder; with Ujiri they will find a direction. It may take a couple years to build it, but he has a plan. Heck, he already traded Bargnani to the Knicks for actual players, when Raptors fans would have traded him for a rack of shootaround basketballs.

Toronto improved their bench this summer. Gone are Bargnani and Linas Kleiza. In are Tyler Hansbrough, D.J. Augustin, Steve Novak and Austin Daye. Not mindblowing, but better.

Keys to the Raptors’ season:

1) Can they win with Rudy Gay and will he stay? The Raptors took a big risk and they took on a big salary when they traded for Gay, who will make $17.9 million this season. Next summer he can opt out and be a free agent (or he can stay for a final year at $19.3 million). Good chance he opts out (to get the security of a longer deal) so the two questions become: Can the Raptors win and keep Gay happy so he stays? Do they want to keep him?

Make no mistake, Gay is a quality player, a borderline All-Star averaging 19.5 points a game last season with the Raptors. But he is not efficient. He shot 42.5 percent for them and 33.6 percent from three, with a PER of 17.6. That’s good but speaks to a second or third option on a contender — maybe the corrective eye surgery he had this summer will change this, but that’s a roll of the dice. Plus, a lot of Gay’s skillset overlaps with DeMar DeRozan’s. So again, do you want to keep him or the less expensive DeRozan (especially if DeRozan has a breakout year)?

It’s a discussion the Raptors need to have thinking about the long-term. However, in the short-term if Toronto is going to make the playoffs this season, a lot of that falls to Gay.  He is going to have to lead this team by being more efficient (same with DeRozan and Lowry).

2) How big a step forward will Jonas Valanciunas take? The first time I saw Valanciunas at Summer League I did a double take — he had clearly hit the gym and his upper body had filled out considerably. He then used that newfound strength to overpower lesser players on the block. Valanciunas did the same thing at EuroBasket for Lithuania. He averaged 8.9 points and 6 rebounds a game with 1.3 blocked shots a game. Look for all those numbers to go up as he takes a step forward this season — and that step is another key to Toronto making the postseason.

3) Can Dwane Casey fix the defense? Coach Dwane Casey is on the hot seat: New GM, expensive star players. and playoffs expectations is a bad combo for the coach.  Plus Casey is in the last year of his contract. Casey is supposed to be a defensive guy, and two seasons ago the Raptors played solid defense for him. But last season they took a big step back and were 22nd in the NBA in points allowed per possession. That has to change, the Raptors need to be top 12 to make the playoffs. With Gay and Lowry the Raptors will find points, but they need to stop other teams from scoring. Look for Valanciunas to be the shot blocking force at the rim, but will that be enough?

Why you should watch the Raptors: Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan are explosive. Once or twice a game — more against a team that wants to get out and run with them. Toronto has athletes. How well they play together is up for discussion, but this team is going to put up some highlights every night.

Prediction: 39-43. Like the end of last season this team is going to float around close to a playoff spot in the East this season — and if they defend, if Gay is a little more efficient, if Lowry stays healthy they can make it in. But can they really beat out teams like Cleveland and Detroit for a playoff spot. I’m not sold. Possible, but it really is going to be about the defense.

  1. johngalt1783 - Sep 19, 2013 at 10:11 AM

    Keys to the Raptors in 13-14

    1. Will the Lasik surgery on Gay’s left eye result in improved shooting from him?
    2. Can Amir Johnson take it to another level?
    3. Can Lowry stay healthy?
    4. Can DeRozan develop a decent three point shot and improve his defense?
    5. Can their bench at least tread water when they are on the court.
    6. Can Casey resist fan pressure to play Valanciunas more minutes than he should?

  2. bucrightoff - Sep 19, 2013 at 12:05 PM

    Too good to be in the Wiggins chase, not good enough to compete for anything past the #6 seed. Colangelo should have been fired years ago but instead he mortgaged the future to keep his job. Mediocre times for Raptors fans.

  3. bucrightoff - Sep 19, 2013 at 12:07 PM

    But Masai deserves executive of the year consideration for trading Bargnani for anything. One of Colangelo’s worst errors ever was giving Andrea that extension.

    • borderline1988 - Sep 22, 2013 at 9:18 AM

      Who cares? Trading Bargnani really doesn’t mean anything. Toronto isn’t attracting any big FAs anyways with the extra salary room (and they don’t have extra salary anyways).

      Toronto fans were also going crazy when Anthopolous was able to trade Vernon Wells. At the end of the day, who cares? Rogers Corp. cared, because they saved money. But does it do anything to make the team better?

      The Jays need to spend some serious money on actual marquee FAs, not 2nd rate, injury-prone, old players.

      And the Raptors need to tank for real. I’m so jealous of Boston and Philly…in 2-3 years, those teams will be on the rise with real stars. Meanwhile, the Raptors will be in the same position…fighting for the 8th seed and drafting late in the lottery.

    • adamsjohn714 - Sep 27, 2013 at 1:47 PM

      trading Bargnani means a lot. It’s millions of dollars you AREN’T paying a guy who detracts from your team. He’s one of the worst players in the NBA, and every minute he was injured was a blessing to the Raptors’ victory chances. They actually would have been better off just burning the money.

  4. brotherlove2012 - Sep 20, 2013 at 12:22 AM

    It’s Toronto, they’ll find a way to mess this up … Unfortunately they will … That you can be certain.

  5. johngalt1783 - Oct 4, 2013 at 5:32 PM

    Another website that has bought into the Valanciunas hype. As Masai a couple of weeks ago in an interview when asked about Jonas “He can’t get any worse than he was last season”

    Clearly the Raptors worst starter who was third string Center on the Lithuanian national team this summer

    Sure he has some upside but I have been watching him play since he was at Lietuvos Rytas and truthfully he hasn’t gotten any better. In fact maybe worse. The only growth I have seen his game in he has gotten stronger and heavier but with that extra weight he has lost a sizable amount of his hops and floor speed.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ujiri trade him by next year at this time unless Valanciunas can show a marked improvement in a below average game

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