Jul 23, 2013, 1:42 PM EDT
While fans (and a lot of front office executives) around the league have enjoyed the Lakers stumbles last season, we all know the plan. And it’s a very feasible one.
The Lakers will muddle through this season then rebuild on the fly through free agency in the summer of 2014 when virtually everybody comes off the books. They can attack free agency hard and sign a couple max players. They have reportedly targeted LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.
Except, the Lakers don’t have quite as much cap space as everyone thinks. Depending on what they do it could be more like $36 million.
The fantastic Jared Dubin had some fun with this at Grantland. For this post, I’m going to take what I think is the most logical scenario and talk cap space from there, using Dubin’s numbers, that includes the Larry Coon (ESPN’s cap guy) projection of a $62 million salary cap next summer.
The Lakers go into next summer with two contracts on the books — Steve Nash with $9.7 million and Robert Sacre at $915,243. Also, Nick Young could stick around as he has a $1.2 million option, but it is more likely he opts out to try and find a longer deal. So we’ll leave Young out of this.
But the Lakers don’t just have the difference between the $10.6 in guaranteed salary and the $62 million to spend.
Meet the cap hold — a placeholder salary that counts against what you can spend based on the value of what you could pay your free agents to come back (also that could include holds for draft picks and minimum contract players yet to be named to get you to a dozen roster spots). In the Lakers case there are cap holds for Kobe Bryant (almost $32 million), Pau Gasol ($20 million), Steve Blake ($7.6 million) and on down the line. With all their cap holds in place the Lakers are at $86 million, way over the cap and luxury tax line, they couldn’t sign anybody.
Most likely the Lakers will trade Gasol during the season or, when the time, comes, the Lakers will renounce their rights to every free agent on their roster not named Kobe. They will create cap space because when they renounce Gasol or anyone else he gets replaced by a $507,336 minimum salary hold. There also will be a salary hold for the Lakers first round pick next summer, the size of which depends on the draft spot but likely is upwards of $1 million, close to $1.5 million.
In Kobe’s case, I expect the Lakers will re-sign him to a discounted deal, much as Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett did for their teams. While Kobe has said he doesn’t want a pay cut, I think that was negotiations and he’ll return for around $10 million.
So where does that leave the Lakers: Kobe at $10 million, Nash at $9.7 million, a draft pick around $1 million, Sacre at $915,243, and eight minimum salary cap holds, your grand total is around $26 million on the books.
Which leaves the Lakers around $36 million in cap space in the summer of 2014.
LeBron’s max is going to be about $20 million for the first year, ‘Melo’s is more like $23. The Lakers can’t swing them both at the max (and have fun trying to convince ‘Melo to take a pay cut). As I have said before, I doubt LeBron or Anthony bolt their respective teams, but consider that a fun exercise in the limits of what the Lakers can do. Remember, the Lakers want to be under the tax threshold line in the 2014-15 season to avoid the repeater tax.
Things could be different — the Lakers could waive Nash and use the stretch provision, for one, to get even more cap space. The Lakers could make a mid-season trade for star under contract (using Gasol and pieces as the bait) and have even less room. There are endless scenarios.
Most observers around the league expect the Lakers to bounce back fast — players want to be in Los Angeles and play for a storied franchise. But the new CBA makes the Lakers style of reloading far more difficult; they are going to have to get some players to come to them at a discount.
The goal of the new CBA was to make it hard and expensive on teams used to just spending to get what they want. The Lakers are a great example of how that is going to work.
Aug 30, 2014, 12:11 AM EDT
Another Pacer player injured in international play.
Aug 29, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
Tournament features a record 75 players who have played in the NBA at some point, and we have the complete list.
Chris Paul discusses his signature shoe, hoops with media at launch of his Jordan Brand CP3 VIII (VIDEO)
Aug 29, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
Chris Paul is way more into sneakers than you are, and articulated it well at the launch of his latest signature shoe in New York earlier this week.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
Ayon has played for four teams in three NBA seasons, and currently only has offers to play overseas next year.
Aug 29, 2014, 6:43 PM EDT
Allen is undecided on playing next season.
Aug 29, 2014, 4:15 PM EDT
Knicks wing acts as security guard in prank
Aug 29, 2014, 3:33 PM EDT
Bulls have Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic
Aug 29, 2014, 2:47 PM EDT
Colangelo touts Anthony Davis, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Derrick Rose, Rudy Gay
Aug 29, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
By also stretching Carlos Delfino, Clippers can sign four veterans to minimum contracts
Aug 29, 2014, 1:15 PM EDT
The truth is limited games in an unusual setting don’t provide real answers to how Rose is feeling or will do down the line. What you think this says about Rose really says more about what you think of Rose’s future than anything else.
Aug 29, 2014, 12:40 PM EDT
Thunder center faced year-long ban before declaring for draft
Aug 29, 2014, 11:40 AM EDT
It should be USA/Spain for the gold, everyone else is playing for third.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:59 AM EDT
Shelly Sterling, who’s still tied to the Clippers, ensuring team can’t move on from her husband
Aug 29, 2014, 10:24 AM EDT
Anthony Davis should lead the Pelicans to the playoffs, which would make Monty Williams feel safer.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
World Peace/Pandas Friend has already reached terms to play in China. Bidding war?
Aug 29, 2014, 9:24 AM EDT
Celtics forward contributes money toward construction of building named for John Thompson Jr.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:44 AM EDT
If the Nuggets stay healthy, they are again a playoff threat in the West.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Protecting the paint is the obvious Achilles heel of the Cavaliers, on paper anyway.
Aug 29, 2014, 12:01 AM EDT
Stauskas is thrilled to have finally made it to the NBA.
Aug 28, 2014, 10:29 PM EDT
Wade and Bosh show they can get the job done now that LeBron has moved on.
- Chris Paul discusses his signature shoe, hoops with media at launch of his Jordan Brand CP3 VIII (VIDEO) 2
- 67RIEFNS No. 1: Tom Thibodeau managing his bigs 16
- Derrick Rose knows injury questions will keep coming. And coming. And coming. 7
- FIBA World Cup preview: USA, Spain, then who else can medal? 0
- Official ‘Clippers’ Number 1 Fan’ on herself and Donald Sterling: ‘I’ll always feel it’s our team’ 17
- Cavaliers GM admits concerns about rim protection on defense 19
- Coach K had DeMarcus Cousins as USA’s backup big long before final cuts 6
- World Cup preview: No Durant, no problem USA still one of two teams with legit shot to win gold 6