Jul 23, 2013, 1:42 PM EDT
While fans (and a lot of front office executives) around the league have enjoyed the Lakers stumbles last season, we all know the plan. And it’s a very feasible one.
The Lakers will muddle through this season then rebuild on the fly through free agency in the summer of 2014 when virtually everybody comes off the books. They can attack free agency hard and sign a couple max players. They have reportedly targeted LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.
Except, the Lakers don’t have quite as much cap space as everyone thinks. Depending on what they do it could be more like $36 million.
The fantastic Jared Dubin had some fun with this at Grantland. For this post, I’m going to take what I think is the most logical scenario and talk cap space from there, using Dubin’s numbers, that includes the Larry Coon (ESPN’s cap guy) projection of a $62 million salary cap next summer.
The Lakers go into next summer with two contracts on the books — Steve Nash with $9.7 million and Robert Sacre at $915,243. Also, Nick Young could stick around as he has a $1.2 million option, but it is more likely he opts out to try and find a longer deal. So we’ll leave Young out of this.
But the Lakers don’t just have the difference between the $10.6 in guaranteed salary and the $62 million to spend.
Meet the cap hold — a placeholder salary that counts against what you can spend based on the value of what you could pay your free agents to come back (also that could include holds for draft picks and minimum contract players yet to be named to get you to a dozen roster spots). In the Lakers case there are cap holds for Kobe Bryant (almost $32 million), Pau Gasol ($20 million), Steve Blake ($7.6 million) and on down the line. With all their cap holds in place the Lakers are at $86 million, way over the cap and luxury tax line, they couldn’t sign anybody.
Most likely the Lakers will trade Gasol during the season or, when the time, comes, the Lakers will renounce their rights to every free agent on their roster not named Kobe. They will create cap space because when they renounce Gasol or anyone else he gets replaced by a $507,336 minimum salary hold. There also will be a salary hold for the Lakers first round pick next summer, the size of which depends on the draft spot but likely is upwards of $1 million, close to $1.5 million.
In Kobe’s case, I expect the Lakers will re-sign him to a discounted deal, much as Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett did for their teams. While Kobe has said he doesn’t want a pay cut, I think that was negotiations and he’ll return for around $10 million.
So where does that leave the Lakers: Kobe at $10 million, Nash at $9.7 million, a draft pick around $1 million, Sacre at $915,243, and eight minimum salary cap holds, your grand total is around $26 million on the books.
Which leaves the Lakers around $36 million in cap space in the summer of 2014.
LeBron’s max is going to be about $20 million for the first year, ‘Melo’s is more like $23. The Lakers can’t swing them both at the max (and have fun trying to convince ‘Melo to take a pay cut). As I have said before, I doubt LeBron or Anthony bolt their respective teams, but consider that a fun exercise in the limits of what the Lakers can do. Remember, the Lakers want to be under the tax threshold line in the 2014-15 season to avoid the repeater tax.
Things could be different — the Lakers could waive Nash and use the stretch provision, for one, to get even more cap space. The Lakers could make a mid-season trade for star under contract (using Gasol and pieces as the bait) and have even less room. There are endless scenarios.
Most observers around the league expect the Lakers to bounce back fast — players want to be in Los Angeles and play for a storied franchise. But the new CBA makes the Lakers style of reloading far more difficult; they are going to have to get some players to come to them at a discount.
The goal of the new CBA was to make it hard and expensive on teams used to just spending to get what they want. The Lakers are a great example of how that is going to work.
Mar 29, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
The Rockets won 99-91 in Washington.
Mar 29, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
You needed this in your life.
Mar 29, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Obviously, the Spurs will match any offer he gets.
Mar 29, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
This likely means the end of the Nate Robinson era.
Mar 29, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Most expect another lockout following the 2016-17 season.
Mar 29, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Great execution by the Blazers.
Mar 29, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
Kanter found a way to motivate the Jazz in the dog days of the season, and the Thunder lost in part because of it.
Mar 29, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
“You don’t have to be best friends to come out here and work together.”
Mar 29, 2015, 12:26 AM EDT
The Golden State Warriors are the team to beat out West.
Enes Kanter rips Jazz, calls his time there a ‘three-and-a-half-year frustration'; gets booed by fans
Mar 28, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Kanter was traded to the Thunder midseason.
Mar 28, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
MJ’s still got it.
Lakers coach Byron Scott says opposing players have told him during games they’d ‘love to be in L.A. next year’
Mar 28, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Big, if true.
Mar 28, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
Legislation was signed into law in Indiana last week, and has been criticized as one that could legalize discrimination.
Mar 28, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
Hornets, still fighting for a playoff spot, catch a break.
Mar 28, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Van Gundy coached five seasons in Orlando, but was fired after the way the Dwight Howard debacle played out.
Mar 28, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Kerr was joking, and making light of a mini-controversy that occurred recently with the Cavaliers.
Mar 28, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Clark played key bench minutes the same day he was signed.
Mar 28, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Cuban went off after the Mavericks were blown out by the Spurs.
Mar 28, 2015, 9:45 AM EDT
Warriors keep rolling, while the Grizzlies are starting to feel like a first round loss.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
Highlight-reel play came near the end of a loss to the Nets.
- NBA players’ union head believes new labor deal can be reached without a work stoppage 4
- Kendrick Perkins says you’re blowing the LeBron James/Kevin Love thing way out of proportion 15
- Mark Cuban rips officials, NBA: ‘It’s criminal’ how Monta Ellis doesn’t get calls 23
- Shaquille O’Neal says he regrets leaving Magic for Lakers 43
- Cavaliers coach David Blatt: ‘LeBron James is our MVP’ 22
- No Durant, what does that mean for Thunder in these playoffs? Trouble. 15
- Kevin Durant to have third foot surgery; is done for season, playoffs 39
- Goran Dragic leading feisty Heat’s playoff push 29