Jun 30, 2013, 8:30 PM EDT
Which of these players would you have most liked on your team last season: Andres Nocioni, Baron Davis, Brendan Haywood, Charlie Bell, Chris Mihm, Corey Maggette, Damien Wilkins, Earl Watson, Elton Brand, Fred Jones, Hedo Turkoglu, Joel Przybilla, John Salmons, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Metta World Peace, Michael Redd, Rashard Lewis, Rasual Butler, Ricky Davis, Ronald Murray, Stromile Swift, Tracy McGrady, Trenton Hassell or Walter Herrmann?
It’s hardly an inspiring list. World Peace was an alright starter for the Lakers. Brand took a lesser role with the Mavericks, and though his production slipped from previous years, it was still pretty good. Lamar Odom fit in well as a Clippers backup. Otherwise, the list is comprised of bit players or guys out of the NBA.
But all those players have something in common. They were 29 years old during the 2008-09 season. Four years later, they’re not nearly as appealing.
It’s a lesson to keep in mind as teams pursue Andre Iguodala, who opted out of the final year of a contract that would have paid him more than $16 million in order to seek a long-term deal.
Iguodala is an excellent defender and great in transition, two skills that typically don’t age well. He’s a good passer and a passable shooter, so it’s unlikely he’ll completely fall off the map, but any team pursuing him won’t be doing it for his passing and shooting.
A larger sample provides a reasonable expectation for Iguodala. Between the 1999-00 and 2008-09 seasons, 274 players have played a season at 29 years old. Here’s how their production, as measured by win shares, progressed from their 29-year-old seasons into the four following (adjusting for the lockout shortened 2011-12 season):
If Iguodala declines at the same rate – and the cracks already began to show last season, when his win-share total fell to 5.6 – his production will mirror, in order, the 2012-13 production of Tony Allen then Corey Brewer then Wayne Ellington then Evan Turner during the next four years. These aren’t stylistic comparisons, just using current players to set a comparison in production only.
Of course, this method for determining expected value includes players who fell out of the NBA counting as zero, but that’s intentional. Quite often, players can no longer play at an NBA level as they get into their 30s. We see the players like Steve Nash who defy age and remember them, forgetting about players like Chris Mihm who fall by the wayside. That inaccurately shifts our perception of how big a deal age is in the NBA.
I don’t expect Iguodala to fall out of the league before his next contract ends, even if it lasts four years, because he’d be beginning the deal with a higher starting point. But the relative decline of lesser players still informs an expected track for Iguodala.
Iguodala has plenty of value, and a team looking to win right now might knowingly accept the risk of his contract becoming an albatross just to get his immediate production. But teams should enter long-term negotiations with that risk in mind.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
Another stellar performance from John Wall buries Toronto’s season.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:17 PM EDT
The Clippers needed their big stars to step up Sunday or they were going to be in a very deep hole. They got it.
Apr 26, 2015, 6:31 PM EDT
Blake Griffin grabbed 19 rebounds, and Austin Rivers (!) chipped in 16 points in 17 minutes off the bench.
Apr 26, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
With the new salary cap, Davis’ deal could approach $140 million.
Apr 26, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
Kevin Love gets hurt, Cleveland gets revenge, and Boston gets swept
Apr 26, 2015, 4:58 PM EDT
Conley suffered the injury in Memphis’ Game 3 win in Portland.
Apr 26, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
It sounds like he’s taking a victory lap.
Apr 26, 2015, 2:55 PM EDT
Smith could face suspension.
Apr 26, 2015, 1:25 PM EDT
He will not return Sunday.
Apr 26, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Apr 26, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
“He’s the guy they want,” the report says.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
Players were given the option by the team’s GM, but Aldridge — who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer — was the only one who chose to leave.
Apr 26, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
He was getting his buckets at the rim or on the right side of the floor.
Apr 26, 2015, 2:37 AM EDT
Memphis’ offense was the best it has looked this series.
Apr 26, 2015, 1:24 AM EDT
There is no update on the severity of his injury yet.
Apr 26, 2015, 12:07 AM EDT
Jared Dudley’s pass was fantastic.
Apr 25, 2015, 10:50 PM EDT
Golden State wins Game 4, 109-98
Apr 25, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Milwaukee forced 26 Chicago turnovers, a season high.
Mark Cuban shouts at Adam Silver to complain about foul calls during Mavericks’ Game 3 loss to Rockets
Apr 25, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Silver was in attendance for Game 3 between the Mavericks and the Rockets.
Apr 25, 2015, 6:59 PM EDT
Nets now trail the Hawks 2-1 in the series.
- Wizards blow out Raptors to complete first-round sweep 0
- Chris Paul scores 34 points, Clippers win Game 4 to even series with Spurs 6
- Cavaliers advance to second round – but but maybe lose Kevin Love and moral high ground in process 40
- Mike Conley out for Game 4 with “serious” facial injury, no timetable for return 5
- Grizzlies start fast, hang on to beat Portland, take 3-0 series lead 2
- Bucks outwork Bulls, stay alive on Jerryd Bayless game-winner 6
- Nets use 18-0 second-half run to secure Game 3 victory over Hawks 6
- Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle fined $25K for publicly criticizing officials after Game 3 loss to Rockets 10