Jun 30, 2013, 8:30 PM EDT
Which of these players would you have most liked on your team last season: Andres Nocioni, Baron Davis, Brendan Haywood, Charlie Bell, Chris Mihm, Corey Maggette, Damien Wilkins, Earl Watson, Elton Brand, Fred Jones, Hedo Turkoglu, Joel Przybilla, John Salmons, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Metta World Peace, Michael Redd, Rashard Lewis, Rasual Butler, Ricky Davis, Ronald Murray, Stromile Swift, Tracy McGrady, Trenton Hassell or Walter Herrmann?
It’s hardly an inspiring list. World Peace was an alright starter for the Lakers. Brand took a lesser role with the Mavericks, and though his production slipped from previous years, it was still pretty good. Lamar Odom fit in well as a Clippers backup. Otherwise, the list is comprised of bit players or guys out of the NBA.
But all those players have something in common. They were 29 years old during the 2008-09 season. Four years later, they’re not nearly as appealing.
It’s a lesson to keep in mind as teams pursue Andre Iguodala, who opted out of the final year of a contract that would have paid him more than $16 million in order to seek a long-term deal.
Iguodala is an excellent defender and great in transition, two skills that typically don’t age well. He’s a good passer and a passable shooter, so it’s unlikely he’ll completely fall off the map, but any team pursuing him won’t be doing it for his passing and shooting.
A larger sample provides a reasonable expectation for Iguodala. Between the 1999-00 and 2008-09 seasons, 274 players have played a season at 29 years old. Here’s how their production, as measured by win shares, progressed from their 29-year-old seasons into the four following (adjusting for the lockout shortened 2011-12 season):
If Iguodala declines at the same rate – and the cracks already began to show last season, when his win-share total fell to 5.6 – his production will mirror, in order, the 2012-13 production of Tony Allen then Corey Brewer then Wayne Ellington then Evan Turner during the next four years. These aren’t stylistic comparisons, just using current players to set a comparison in production only.
Of course, this method for determining expected value includes players who fell out of the NBA counting as zero, but that’s intentional. Quite often, players can no longer play at an NBA level as they get into their 30s. We see the players like Steve Nash who defy age and remember them, forgetting about players like Chris Mihm who fall by the wayside. That inaccurately shifts our perception of how big a deal age is in the NBA.
I don’t expect Iguodala to fall out of the league before his next contract ends, even if it lasts four years, because he’d be beginning the deal with a higher starting point. But the relative decline of lesser players still informs an expected track for Iguodala.
Iguodala has plenty of value, and a team looking to win right now might knowingly accept the risk of his contract becoming an albatross just to get his immediate production. But teams should enter long-term negotiations with that risk in mind.
Aug 30, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT
The statue is in Buenos Aires, in case you were looking to travel to get your picture with it.
Aug 30, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
That’s a higher bar than most realize
Aug 30, 2014, 7:00 PM EDT
Klay Thompson scored 18 points and Anthony Davis had 17 points on the night. Finland had great fans, though.
Aug 30, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Kings rookie rookie honing his 3-point Shootout skills
Aug 30, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Will Davis be better than LeBron and Durant in five years? I’ll say this — he’ll be on that level.
Aug 30, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
Role models are not one size fits all.
Aug 30, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
Former Tennessee guard, drafted No. 58, will help Philadelphia tank from afar
Aug 30, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Other NBA teams also watching Slovenia closely in World Cup to assess Zoran
Aug 30, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Finland isn’t as good as the teams the USA was destroying in tune ups.
Aug 30, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
He can decide this summer, or he can wait and join a team mid-season. There is no rush.
Aug 30, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
“We talk and he’s ready. He’s 20-year-old Kobe. It’s going to be a crazy environment.” — James Harden on Kobe Bryant
Aug 30, 2014, 12:11 AM EDT
Another Pacer player injured in international play.
Aug 29, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
Tournament features a record 75 players who have played in the NBA at some point, and we have the complete list.
Chris Paul discusses his signature shoe, hoops with media at launch of his Jordan Brand CP3 VIII (VIDEO)
Aug 29, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
Chris Paul is way more into sneakers than you are, and articulated it well at the launch of his latest signature shoe in New York earlier this week.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
Ayon has played for four teams in three NBA seasons, and currently only has offers to play overseas next year.
Aug 29, 2014, 6:43 PM EDT
Allen is undecided on playing next season.
Aug 29, 2014, 4:15 PM EDT
Knicks wing acts as security guard in prank
Aug 29, 2014, 3:33 PM EDT
Bulls have Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic
Aug 29, 2014, 2:47 PM EDT
Colangelo touts Anthony Davis, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Derrick Rose, Rudy Gay
Aug 29, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
By also stretching Carlos Delfino, Clippers can sign four veterans to minimum contracts
- USA cruises past Finland in World Cup opener, 114-55 5
- World Cup Preview: USA vs. Finland, what to expect 4
- James Harden on Kobe Bryant return: “He’s 20-year-old Kobe” 30
- Chris Paul discusses his signature shoe, hoops with media at launch of his Jordan Brand CP3 VIII (VIDEO) 5
- 67RIEFNS No. 1: Tom Thibodeau managing his bigs 22
- Derrick Rose knows injury questions will keep coming. And coming. And coming. 11
- FIBA World Cup preview: USA, Spain, then who else can medal? 2
- Official ‘Clippers’ Number 1 Fan’ on herself and Donald Sterling: ‘I’ll always feel it’s our team’ 21