Jun 30, 2013, 8:30 PM EDT
Which of these players would you have most liked on your team last season: Andres Nocioni, Baron Davis, Brendan Haywood, Charlie Bell, Chris Mihm, Corey Maggette, Damien Wilkins, Earl Watson, Elton Brand, Fred Jones, Hedo Turkoglu, Joel Przybilla, John Salmons, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Metta World Peace, Michael Redd, Rashard Lewis, Rasual Butler, Ricky Davis, Ronald Murray, Stromile Swift, Tracy McGrady, Trenton Hassell or Walter Herrmann?
It’s hardly an inspiring list. World Peace was an alright starter for the Lakers. Brand took a lesser role with the Mavericks, and though his production slipped from previous years, it was still pretty good. Lamar Odom fit in well as a Clippers backup. Otherwise, the list is comprised of bit players or guys out of the NBA.
But all those players have something in common. They were 29 years old during the 2008-09 season. Four years later, they’re not nearly as appealing.
It’s a lesson to keep in mind as teams pursue Andre Iguodala, who opted out of the final year of a contract that would have paid him more than $16 million in order to seek a long-term deal.
Iguodala is an excellent defender and great in transition, two skills that typically don’t age well. He’s a good passer and a passable shooter, so it’s unlikely he’ll completely fall off the map, but any team pursuing him won’t be doing it for his passing and shooting.
A larger sample provides a reasonable expectation for Iguodala. Between the 1999-00 and 2008-09 seasons, 274 players have played a season at 29 years old. Here’s how their production, as measured by win shares, progressed from their 29-year-old seasons into the four following (adjusting for the lockout shortened 2011-12 season):
If Iguodala declines at the same rate – and the cracks already began to show last season, when his win-share total fell to 5.6 – his production will mirror, in order, the 2012-13 production of Tony Allen then Corey Brewer then Wayne Ellington then Evan Turner during the next four years. These aren’t stylistic comparisons, just using current players to set a comparison in production only.
Of course, this method for determining expected value includes players who fell out of the NBA counting as zero, but that’s intentional. Quite often, players can no longer play at an NBA level as they get into their 30s. We see the players like Steve Nash who defy age and remember them, forgetting about players like Chris Mihm who fall by the wayside. That inaccurately shifts our perception of how big a deal age is in the NBA.
I don’t expect Iguodala to fall out of the league before his next contract ends, even if it lasts four years, because he’d be beginning the deal with a higher starting point. But the relative decline of lesser players still informs an expected track for Iguodala.
Iguodala has plenty of value, and a team looking to win right now might knowingly accept the risk of his contract becoming an albatross just to get his immediate production. But teams should enter long-term negotiations with that risk in mind.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:38 AM EDT
Also, is Kyle Korver human?
Mar 31, 2015, 12:30 AM EDT
He won’t replace Wesley Matthews, but he’s another body.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:45 PM EDT
A much-needed win for the Raptors.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Gobert wouldn’t let it stand and blocked him right after.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
It was a frightening display of strength.
Mar 30, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
A reminder of the Crash of old.
Mar 30, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
Capela is making a name for himself.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:56 PM EDT
Rose underwent knee surgery in February.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:18 PM EDT
This is the opposite of a surprise.
Mar 30, 2015, 6:14 PM EDT
There were rumors he wanted the Sacramento GM job, but George Karl has the power there now.
Mar 30, 2015, 5:38 PM EDT
Also, is Willie Caulie-Stein a great fit next to DeMarcus Cousins?
Mar 30, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
Cavaliers center is a star
Mar 30, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
UNLV freshman likely headed for second round
Mar 30, 2015, 3:15 PM EDT
The top three are Golden State, Cleveland and San Antonio. Would you be shocked if any of them won the title?
StubHub sues Warriors, accuses Golden State of preventing StubHub-using fans from buying playoff tickets
Mar 30, 2015, 2:38 PM EDT
StubHub says Warriors permit resale through only Ticketmaster
Mar 30, 2015, 1:59 PM EDT
Rockets point guard to have surgery on wrist
Mar 30, 2015, 1:27 PM EDT
Phil Jackson disciple Craig Hodges now coaching Westchester Knicks
Mar 30, 2015, 12:49 PM EDT
Jordan made preseason debut at Washington High School, but at one point, it seemed Washington High alum Junior Bridgeman would be the big draw
Mar 30, 2015, 12:11 PM EDT
D.J. Augustin throws the alley-oop, and two Thunder players go for it. Westbrook won.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:33 AM EDT
Good decision to go pro, poor decision to end video how he did
- Five Things We Learned in NBA Monday: DeMar DeRozan went Harden on Harden 4
- Derrick Rose returns to full-contact practice, Bulls return date still unknown 3
- Report: Sacramento consultant Chris Mullin to take St. John’s head coaching job 2
- PBT Extra: Taking twitter questions on Clippers, Michael Carter-Williams, more 3
- PBT’s NBA Power Rankings: Cream rising to top as playoffs near 27
- Report: Patrick Beverley out for rest of season, including playoffs 7
- Breaking down Western Conference playoff chase with two weeks left in season 9
- Breaking down Eastern Conference playoff chase with two weeks left in season 10