Jun 30, 2013, 8:30 PM EST
Which of these players would you have most liked on your team last season: Andres Nocioni, Baron Davis, Brendan Haywood, Charlie Bell, Chris Mihm, Corey Maggette, Damien Wilkins, Earl Watson, Elton Brand, Fred Jones, Hedo Turkoglu, Joel Przybilla, John Salmons, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Metta World Peace, Michael Redd, Rashard Lewis, Rasual Butler, Ricky Davis, Ronald Murray, Stromile Swift, Tracy McGrady, Trenton Hassell or Walter Herrmann?
It’s hardly an inspiring list. World Peace was an alright starter for the Lakers. Brand took a lesser role with the Mavericks, and though his production slipped from previous years, it was still pretty good. Lamar Odom fit in well as a Clippers backup. Otherwise, the list is comprised of bit players or guys out of the NBA.
But all those players have something in common. They were 29 years old during the 2008-09 season. Four years later, they’re not nearly as appealing.
It’s a lesson to keep in mind as teams pursue Andre Iguodala, who opted out of the final year of a contract that would have paid him more than $16 million in order to seek a long-term deal.
Iguodala is an excellent defender and great in transition, two skills that typically don’t age well. He’s a good passer and a passable shooter, so it’s unlikely he’ll completely fall off the map, but any team pursuing him won’t be doing it for his passing and shooting.
A larger sample provides a reasonable expectation for Iguodala. Between the 1999-00 and 2008-09 seasons, 274 players have played a season at 29 years old. Here’s how their production, as measured by win shares, progressed from their 29-year-old seasons into the four following (adjusting for the lockout shortened 2011-12 season):
If Iguodala declines at the same rate – and the cracks already began to show last season, when his win-share total fell to 5.6 – his production will mirror, in order, the 2012-13 production of Tony Allen then Corey Brewer then Wayne Ellington then Evan Turner during the next four years. These aren’t stylistic comparisons, just using current players to set a comparison in production only.
Of course, this method for determining expected value includes players who fell out of the NBA counting as zero, but that’s intentional. Quite often, players can no longer play at an NBA level as they get into their 30s. We see the players like Steve Nash who defy age and remember them, forgetting about players like Chris Mihm who fall by the wayside. That inaccurately shifts our perception of how big a deal age is in the NBA.
I don’t expect Iguodala to fall out of the league before his next contract ends, even if it lasts four years, because he’d be beginning the deal with a higher starting point. But the relative decline of lesser players still informs an expected track for Iguodala.
Iguodala has plenty of value, and a team looking to win right now might knowingly accept the risk of his contract becoming an albatross just to get his immediate production. But teams should enter long-term negotiations with that risk in mind.
Jan 28, 2015, 1:55 PM EST
Teletovic being released from hospital today
Jan 28, 2015, 1:17 PM EST
Jackson said breaking rule gave New York an edge due to team’s style of play
Jan 28, 2015, 12:42 PM EST
Thunder remain heavy favorites
Jan 28, 2015, 12:05 PM EST
The Raptors are trying to be patient and tap into his potential.
Jan 28, 2015, 11:17 AM EST
Mirotic, drafted in 2011, is a darkhorse challenger to Andrew Wiggins for Rookie of the Year
Jan 28, 2015, 9:59 AM EST
It probably would matter less than before, but why change the date?
Jan 28, 2015, 9:22 AM EST
Upshaw reportedly failed multiple drug tests at Washington and Fresno State
Jan 28, 2015, 8:30 AM EST
He can do more than just shoot the rock.
Jan 28, 2015, 8:00 AM EST
They like his veteran leadership on a young team.
Jan 28, 2015, 2:59 AM EST
The Warriors are just simply a fun team to watch play.
Jan 28, 2015, 2:03 AM EST
I’d take this Finals matchup.
Jan 28, 2015, 12:17 AM EST
Lucas also previously played for Memphis
Jan 27, 2015, 11:33 PM EST
Hornets also reportedly had interest in Heat point guard
Jan 27, 2015, 10:51 PM EST
Buss would have turned 82 today
Jan 27, 2015, 10:09 PM EST
Heat blow lead to Bucks without star guard
Jan 27, 2015, 9:25 PM EST
Following Pistons basket, Cavaliers run awesome insta-fastbreak
Jan 27, 2015, 8:27 PM EST
One Clipper has a better chance than the other
Jan 27, 2015, 7:23 PM EST
The best news may be the return to the classic dunk contest format.
Jan 27, 2015, 6:50 PM EST
Barring any setbacks with hand injury
Jan 27, 2015, 5:59 PM EST
The Atlanta Hawks, is there anything they can’t do?
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- PBT Extra: Who should be the All-Star Game reserves? 16
- Report: Kobe Bryant “definitively coming back to play next season” 31