Jun 29, 2013, 2:00 PM EDT
When Nerlens Noel first went down with an ACL injury, the reaction of most scouts and league executives was he wouldn’t fall or if he did he wouldn’t fall that far in the draft. He was still a top three pick.
But things started to feel different the last couple weeks. I can’t remember a year the presumptive top pick had more negative things said about him and his game in the run up to the draft.
Then come draft night he fell all the way No. 6, where he was taken by New Orleans and promptly traded to Philadelphia. Nobody seemed to want Noel.
What was going on? Turns out the knee injury and the risk that comes with it did cause him to fall.
When trying to do a good mock draft, you can’t just take into account the talent of the player and the needs of the team. The other key factors are the general manager’s/team president’s personality and his job security — is the decision maker in a position he feels comfortable taking a risk? Or does he need to go with a player he feels more comfortable with and can help sooner?
Noel, coming off an ACL repair that was red flagged by a couple teams, was certainly a risk.
Cavaliers’ owner Dan Gilbert said on the night of the lottery he was tired of being in the lottery and wanted to be in the playoffs next year, and you know GM Chris Grant has heard that more directly. So come draft night Grant didn’t feel comfortable taking Noel — a player with potentially more upside than Anthony Bennett but a also a player coming off an ACL surgery with more long-term risk and a player that was not going to help much in his rookie season at least.
There are different ways players fail in the NBA. If he doesn’t work hard, it’s on him. If he doesn’t fit the system, it’s on the coach. None of that threatens highly paid and career-minded general managers — in both scenarios they can keep their jobs. (I’ve even heard it suggested that some general managers keep sub-par coaches around to have someone to blame should it all go awry.)
But things go down very differently if the team fails because it bet on a player known to have been injured, and injuries are his undoing. That tends to be seen as the front office’s fault. When the engines fail in that airplane, there never seem to be enough parachutes for the front office guys. That’s just how it goes
Kevin Pritchard was the NBA’s next great GM when he drafted Greg Oden — on track to be alone at the top of a big budget team’s hierarchy. Then Oden got hurt. Six years after making that pick, and after a spell of unemployment Pritchard is still keeping his head down, trying to restore his reputation in Indiana’s increasingly crowded front office.
Does it matter that 29 other GMs would have taken Oden over Kevin Durant? No. (And any GM that says otherwise is selling you revisionist history, at the time everyone had Oden on top of their boards.) Injuries to a top pick can kill a career.
In Philadelphia, new GM Sam Hinkie rolled the dice and I think had a great draft night. With Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and crew this was at best a .500 team looking at a bottom three seed in the East and getting suck in a rut in the middle of the conference. They went all in on Andrew Bynum and missed and now they were stuck. So Hinkie blew the whole thing up — he is getting bad to get better. The Sixers will lose a lot of games next season but be in position next draft to get one of the top players in the best draft in a decade.
And then, maybe Noel will be playing — he has the most potential in this draft, 7-foot guys who run the court like a guard, can block shots and be a defensive force don’t grow on trees. It’s a good risk for Hinkie.
Of course, it’s easy for me to say that — my job doesn’t depend on Noel coming around and being a productive player in a few years.
Kobe Bryant on Julius Randle playing with Kobe, for Byron Scott: ‘If you f— this up, you’re a really big idiot’
Oct 23, 2014, 12:15 AM EDT
Lakers star likes dropping I bombs
Oct 22, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
No charges have been filed.
Oct 22, 2014, 10:20 PM EDT
J Crossover up close and personal.
Oct 22, 2014, 9:20 PM EDT
Rockets downgraded Parsons, but he’ll have a chance to reach new heights with Mavericks
Oct 22, 2014, 8:20 PM EDT
Lakers forward also says he’s quit drinking alcohol
Oct 22, 2014, 7:20 PM EDT
Stephen Curry takes advantage
Oct 22, 2014, 6:21 PM EDT
Phil Jackson has spoken to the media more than the previous three GMs ever did, I think.
Oct 22, 2014, 5:16 PM EDT
“ We still have roughly a third of our teams that are not profitable under the current system, despite revenue sharing.” —Adam Silver
Oct 22, 2014, 4:30 PM EDT
Oddest vote of the survey — 10.7 percent of GMs thought Chicago had a better offseason than Cleveland.
Jeff Van Gundy: Confusing a system (like the Triangle Offense) with reason for success is ‘a huge mistake’
Oct 22, 2014, 3:42 PM EDT
Van Gundy says players are responsible for wins and losses, not systems — like the one Phil Jackson is bringing to the Knicks this season.
Oct 22, 2014, 2:58 PM EDT
This could be the year a big man breaks the string of guards winning the award.
Oct 22, 2014, 2:13 PM EDT
Pierce played 15 years for the Celtics, but is now with his second new team in as many seasons with the Wizards.
Oct 22, 2014, 1:29 PM EDT
Boston is hoping to get an asset in return for Bynum instead of simply waiving him.
Oct 22, 2014, 12:48 PM EDT
Oct 22, 2014, 12:04 PM EDT
There are plenty more interesting tidbits in the league’s annual survey.
Oct 22, 2014, 11:23 AM EDT
It may come up again, but for one more season at least Philadelphia’s uber-tanking system will pay dividends.
Oct 22, 2014, 10:45 AM EDT
In addition to losing its two best playmakers in the offseason. Indiana has struggled with injuries.
Oct 22, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
This is a team where winning 50 games and exiting in the first round would feel like a big disappointment.
Oct 22, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Inadvertent collision resulted in Kaman needing stitches in the back of his head.
Oct 22, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Raptors point guards clicked when playing together
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- Owners vote down NBA Draft lottery reform, system to stay same for this season 42
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 preview: Houston Rockets 23
- Kobe Bryant responds to ESPN article with basically a shrug (VIDEO) 19
- Paul George refutes report he didn’t want to play with Kobe Bryant: ‘Media reaching again’ 22
- PBT Extra preview: Lakers, Celtics big name teams headed to lottery 12
- Could lottery reform be bad for small market teams? Sam Presti argues yes. 23