Jun 29, 2013, 2:00 PM EST
When Nerlens Noel first went down with an ACL injury, the reaction of most scouts and league executives was he wouldn’t fall or if he did he wouldn’t fall that far in the draft. He was still a top three pick.
But things started to feel different the last couple weeks. I can’t remember a year the presumptive top pick had more negative things said about him and his game in the run up to the draft.
Then come draft night he fell all the way No. 6, where he was taken by New Orleans and promptly traded to Philadelphia. Nobody seemed to want Noel.
What was going on? Turns out the knee injury and the risk that comes with it did cause him to fall.
When trying to do a good mock draft, you can’t just take into account the talent of the player and the needs of the team. The other key factors are the general manager’s/team president’s personality and his job security — is the decision maker in a position he feels comfortable taking a risk? Or does he need to go with a player he feels more comfortable with and can help sooner?
Noel, coming off an ACL repair that was red flagged by a couple teams, was certainly a risk.
Cavaliers’ owner Dan Gilbert said on the night of the lottery he was tired of being in the lottery and wanted to be in the playoffs next year, and you know GM Chris Grant has heard that more directly. So come draft night Grant didn’t feel comfortable taking Noel — a player with potentially more upside than Anthony Bennett but a also a player coming off an ACL surgery with more long-term risk and a player that was not going to help much in his rookie season at least.
There are different ways players fail in the NBA. If he doesn’t work hard, it’s on him. If he doesn’t fit the system, it’s on the coach. None of that threatens highly paid and career-minded general managers — in both scenarios they can keep their jobs. (I’ve even heard it suggested that some general managers keep sub-par coaches around to have someone to blame should it all go awry.)
But things go down very differently if the team fails because it bet on a player known to have been injured, and injuries are his undoing. That tends to be seen as the front office’s fault. When the engines fail in that airplane, there never seem to be enough parachutes for the front office guys. That’s just how it goes
Kevin Pritchard was the NBA’s next great GM when he drafted Greg Oden — on track to be alone at the top of a big budget team’s hierarchy. Then Oden got hurt. Six years after making that pick, and after a spell of unemployment Pritchard is still keeping his head down, trying to restore his reputation in Indiana’s increasingly crowded front office.
Does it matter that 29 other GMs would have taken Oden over Kevin Durant? No. (And any GM that says otherwise is selling you revisionist history, at the time everyone had Oden on top of their boards.) Injuries to a top pick can kill a career.
In Philadelphia, new GM Sam Hinkie rolled the dice and I think had a great draft night. With Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and crew this was at best a .500 team looking at a bottom three seed in the East and getting suck in a rut in the middle of the conference. They went all in on Andrew Bynum and missed and now they were stuck. So Hinkie blew the whole thing up — he is getting bad to get better. The Sixers will lose a lot of games next season but be in position next draft to get one of the top players in the best draft in a decade.
And then, maybe Noel will be playing — he has the most potential in this draft, 7-foot guys who run the court like a guard, can block shots and be a defensive force don’t grow on trees. It’s a good risk for Hinkie.
Of course, it’s easy for me to say that — my job doesn’t depend on Noel coming around and being a productive player in a few years.
Dec 18, 2014, 6:55 PM EST
The foul was upgraded to a Flagrant 2.
Dec 18, 2014, 6:03 PM EST
The Mavs send three players and two picks to Boston.
Dec 18, 2014, 5:30 PM EST
They don’t want to give up picks.
Dec 18, 2014, 4:45 PM EST
Spurs star made same clutch shot a decade ago against Lakers
Dec 18, 2014, 4:05 PM EST
Down goes Rocky, down goes Rocky
Dec 18, 2014, 3:40 PM EST
Trail Blazers guard just waiting to check into game, when his personal space gets violated
Dec 18, 2014, 3:09 PM EST
The Warriors are +15.8 per 100 when he is on the court. They will miss him.
Dec 18, 2014, 3:03 PM EST
Celtics forward shows up Magic
Dec 18, 2014, 2:28 PM EST
Updated with Lakers’ reported offer
Dec 18, 2014, 1:36 PM EST
Trade talks for Celtics point guard heating up
Dec 18, 2014, 12:55 PM EST
Where does this rank among LeBron’s most-lopsided losses?
Dec 18, 2014, 12:22 PM EST
It would be very difficult for the Clippers to find a deal Minnesota would like.
Dec 18, 2014, 11:51 AM EST
Plenty of photos and a recap of this week’s launch event from Jordan Brand’s Terminal 23 space in NYC.
Dec 18, 2014, 11:13 AM EST
This would shake up the balance of power in the West.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:21 AM EST
It’s is the ninja turtle time of year.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:12 AM EST
He turned the table on the Clippers and dunked on them.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
Don’t worry. He still got off a jumper (which he missed)
Dec 18, 2014, 2:05 AM EST
James Harden and Dwyane Wade broke the 40 point barrier.
Dec 18, 2014, 1:31 AM EST
Another fine defensive moment from James Harden.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:54 AM EST
I can’t wait until the Western Conference playoffs.
- Reports: Celtics agree to trade Rajon Rondo to Dallas Mavericks 18
- Andrew Bogut undergoes PRP therapy on knee, out indefinitely 7
- Report: Mavericks trading for Rajon Rondo could happen ‘sooner rather than later’ 10
- Carmelo Anthony introduces his latest signature shoe, the Jordan Melo M11 9
- Report: Rondo “open” to re-signing in Dallas, Houston if traded there 20
- PBT’s Wednesday Night NBA Winners/Losers: You will not question if Memphis is legit again 18
- Grizzlies top Spurs in triple overtime. Best game of the season. So far. 6
- Report: Mavericks and Celtics in ‘substantive discussion’ about Rajon Rondo trade 25