Jun 29, 2013, 2:00 PM EDT
When Nerlens Noel first went down with an ACL injury, the reaction of most scouts and league executives was he wouldn’t fall or if he did he wouldn’t fall that far in the draft. He was still a top three pick.
But things started to feel different the last couple weeks. I can’t remember a year the presumptive top pick had more negative things said about him and his game in the run up to the draft.
Then come draft night he fell all the way No. 6, where he was taken by New Orleans and promptly traded to Philadelphia. Nobody seemed to want Noel.
What was going on? Turns out the knee injury and the risk that comes with it did cause him to fall.
When trying to do a good mock draft, you can’t just take into account the talent of the player and the needs of the team. The other key factors are the general manager’s/team president’s personality and his job security — is the decision maker in a position he feels comfortable taking a risk? Or does he need to go with a player he feels more comfortable with and can help sooner?
Noel, coming off an ACL repair that was red flagged by a couple teams, was certainly a risk.
Cavaliers’ owner Dan Gilbert said on the night of the lottery he was tired of being in the lottery and wanted to be in the playoffs next year, and you know GM Chris Grant has heard that more directly. So come draft night Grant didn’t feel comfortable taking Noel — a player with potentially more upside than Anthony Bennett but a also a player coming off an ACL surgery with more long-term risk and a player that was not going to help much in his rookie season at least.
There are different ways players fail in the NBA. If he doesn’t work hard, it’s on him. If he doesn’t fit the system, it’s on the coach. None of that threatens highly paid and career-minded general managers — in both scenarios they can keep their jobs. (I’ve even heard it suggested that some general managers keep sub-par coaches around to have someone to blame should it all go awry.)
But things go down very differently if the team fails because it bet on a player known to have been injured, and injuries are his undoing. That tends to be seen as the front office’s fault. When the engines fail in that airplane, there never seem to be enough parachutes for the front office guys. That’s just how it goes
Kevin Pritchard was the NBA’s next great GM when he drafted Greg Oden — on track to be alone at the top of a big budget team’s hierarchy. Then Oden got hurt. Six years after making that pick, and after a spell of unemployment Pritchard is still keeping his head down, trying to restore his reputation in Indiana’s increasingly crowded front office.
Does it matter that 29 other GMs would have taken Oden over Kevin Durant? No. (And any GM that says otherwise is selling you revisionist history, at the time everyone had Oden on top of their boards.) Injuries to a top pick can kill a career.
In Philadelphia, new GM Sam Hinkie rolled the dice and I think had a great draft night. With Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and crew this was at best a .500 team looking at a bottom three seed in the East and getting suck in a rut in the middle of the conference. They went all in on Andrew Bynum and missed and now they were stuck. So Hinkie blew the whole thing up — he is getting bad to get better. The Sixers will lose a lot of games next season but be in position next draft to get one of the top players in the best draft in a decade.
And then, maybe Noel will be playing — he has the most potential in this draft, 7-foot guys who run the court like a guard, can block shots and be a defensive force don’t grow on trees. It’s a good risk for Hinkie.
Of course, it’s easy for me to say that — my job doesn’t depend on Noel coming around and being a productive player in a few years.
Aug 31, 2015, 3:27 PM EDT
Cleveland can watch Pointer develop without having to pay him
Aug 31, 2015, 2:26 PM EDT
Mike Clarkson says son committed to Lakers
Aug 31, 2015, 1:33 PM EDT
Don’t expect him to make the regular-season roster this season
Aug 31, 2015, 12:43 PM EDT
Could Lakers wing play in the 2016 Olympics?
Report: Tristan Thompson won’t accept less than max from Cavaliers, his agent thinks Raptors will offer it next summer
Aug 31, 2015, 11:43 AM EDT
Thompson might leverage the max from Cleveland, but it probably shouldn’t be because of this Toronto threat
Aug 31, 2015, 10:26 AM EDT
By dropping an NBA draft pick, Canadians show how far they’ve come
Aug 31, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
Utah now has 20 players
Aug 31, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
This would have been fun to attend.
Aug 31, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
He’s a long shot to make a roster.
Aug 30, 2015, 10:16 PM EDT
Al-Farouq Aminu is headed back to the Olympics.
Aug 30, 2015, 9:39 PM EDT
There is no signed deal yet.
Aug 30, 2015, 9:02 PM EDT
Shaq said Phil Jackson was fair with them.
Aug 30, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
We’ll all look back at the McCallum trade and say “it’s the Spurs doing Spurs things again.”
Aug 30, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
He will be missed.
Aug 30, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Can Johnson take on the backup point guard role if Chalmers was moved?
Aug 30, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
“You’re talking about being a fiscally responsible person, I am. That’s precisely why I did this.” —Scott Walker
Aug 30, 2015, 12:31 PM EDT
Aug 30, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
First Cam Newton, now Usain Bolt.
Aug 30, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
He may start at the four for Charlotte this year.
Aug 30, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Cherry played for the Spurs’ Summer League team.
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