Jun 29, 2013, 2:00 PM EDT
When Nerlens Noel first went down with an ACL injury, the reaction of most scouts and league executives was he wouldn’t fall or if he did he wouldn’t fall that far in the draft. He was still a top three pick.
But things started to feel different the last couple weeks. I can’t remember a year the presumptive top pick had more negative things said about him and his game in the run up to the draft.
Then come draft night he fell all the way No. 6, where he was taken by New Orleans and promptly traded to Philadelphia. Nobody seemed to want Noel.
What was going on? Turns out the knee injury and the risk that comes with it did cause him to fall.
When trying to do a good mock draft, you can’t just take into account the talent of the player and the needs of the team. The other key factors are the general manager’s/team president’s personality and his job security — is the decision maker in a position he feels comfortable taking a risk? Or does he need to go with a player he feels more comfortable with and can help sooner?
Noel, coming off an ACL repair that was red flagged by a couple teams, was certainly a risk.
Cavaliers’ owner Dan Gilbert said on the night of the lottery he was tired of being in the lottery and wanted to be in the playoffs next year, and you know GM Chris Grant has heard that more directly. So come draft night Grant didn’t feel comfortable taking Noel — a player with potentially more upside than Anthony Bennett but a also a player coming off an ACL surgery with more long-term risk and a player that was not going to help much in his rookie season at least.
There are different ways players fail in the NBA. If he doesn’t work hard, it’s on him. If he doesn’t fit the system, it’s on the coach. None of that threatens highly paid and career-minded general managers — in both scenarios they can keep their jobs. (I’ve even heard it suggested that some general managers keep sub-par coaches around to have someone to blame should it all go awry.)
But things go down very differently if the team fails because it bet on a player known to have been injured, and injuries are his undoing. That tends to be seen as the front office’s fault. When the engines fail in that airplane, there never seem to be enough parachutes for the front office guys. That’s just how it goes
Kevin Pritchard was the NBA’s next great GM when he drafted Greg Oden — on track to be alone at the top of a big budget team’s hierarchy. Then Oden got hurt. Six years after making that pick, and after a spell of unemployment Pritchard is still keeping his head down, trying to restore his reputation in Indiana’s increasingly crowded front office.
Does it matter that 29 other GMs would have taken Oden over Kevin Durant? No. (And any GM that says otherwise is selling you revisionist history, at the time everyone had Oden on top of their boards.) Injuries to a top pick can kill a career.
In Philadelphia, new GM Sam Hinkie rolled the dice and I think had a great draft night. With Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and crew this was at best a .500 team looking at a bottom three seed in the East and getting suck in a rut in the middle of the conference. They went all in on Andrew Bynum and missed and now they were stuck. So Hinkie blew the whole thing up — he is getting bad to get better. The Sixers will lose a lot of games next season but be in position next draft to get one of the top players in the best draft in a decade.
And then, maybe Noel will be playing — he has the most potential in this draft, 7-foot guys who run the court like a guard, can block shots and be a defensive force don’t grow on trees. It’s a good risk for Hinkie.
Of course, it’s easy for me to say that — my job doesn’t depend on Noel coming around and being a productive player in a few years.
Aug 1, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
Rose played in the 2010 and 2014 FIBA World Championships.
Aug 1, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
That would be good news for the Spurs and bad news for the rest of the Western Conference.
Aug 1, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
Noah spent most of last season limited by knee surgery.
Aug 1, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
His $4.7 million salary for next season is unguaranteed.
Aug 1, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Paul is still in the running for a spot on the 2016 Olympic team.
Aug 1, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Will this lead to all 30 teams getting their own affiliates?
Hakeem Olajuwon and Dikembe Mutombo make surprise appearances for Team Africa in NBA exhibition game (VIDEO)
Aug 1, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Team Africa faced off against Team World in Johannesburg.
Aug 1, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Mbah a Moute signed a one-year deal with the Kings in July.
Aug 1, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
Biyombo has worked with Hakeem Olajuwon this summer on post moves, other parts of his game.
Aug 1, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
The Nets will be paying the price for their win-now era for a few years to come still.
Aug 1, 2015, 1:11 AM EDT
This is the right move, whether he decides to play in Rio or not.
Jul 31, 2015, 11:08 PM EDT
He looks like a guy who can live up to the No. 1 pick billing.
Jul 31, 2015, 10:26 PM EDT
Norris Cole is still looking for a bigger payday.
Jul 31, 2015, 9:31 PM EDT
Her credentials are unassailable.
Jul 31, 2015, 8:10 PM EDT
He is currently out on bond.
Jul 31, 2015, 7:15 PM EDT
Hill told the police he was “in a hurry.” I guess so.
Jul 31, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
Neither guy is going to make a difference on the court for these teams. This was just moving some money around.
Jul 31, 2015, 5:46 PM EDT
Crabbe looked good in Las Vegas at Summer League.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:59 PM EDT
The Kings don’t really have the roster spot for him.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:11 PM EDT
Iowa Energy add Nicki Gross to coaching staff
- Report: Derrick Rose undecided about attending Team USA minicamp 0
- Report: Pacers planning to purchase D-League’s Fort Wayne Mad Ants 2
- Report: Hawks’ Mike Scott told police after arrest all drugs in car were his 17
- NBA lands in Africa trying to put down roots, which is all about youth programs, infrastructure 1
- Report: Kings expected to hire Nancy Lieberman as assistant coach 9
- Report: Hawks’ Mike Scott arrested for felony drug possession 16
- Gilbert Arenas on LeBron James: “James isn’t a #1 option..and yes I (didn’t stutter)” 48
- Report: Veteran point guard Andre Miller reaches one-year deal with Timberwolves 10