Jun 27, 2013, 8:45 AM EDT
Alex Len put up nice but not thrilling stats at Maryland last season — 11.9 points a game on 53.4 percent shooting, with 7.8 rebounds a game. He’s seen as talented but raw. After the season he had surgery on a stress fracture in his ankle, and there are concerns his health issues could be chronic.
So why are we talking about this guy as a potential No. 1 overall pick?
Why is this the guy that the Thunder and reportedly others want to trade up into the top five to get?
Because he’s a big man with potential.
Of course, so were Michael Olowokandi and Kwame Brown, but at this time of year general managers get seduced with potential — and Len certainly has that. In a draft with no franchise changing, lock No. 1 pick teams have been drawn to the potential of Len. The upside, if you like your cliché draft words.
There’s no question the Ukrainian born Len — at 7’0”, 255 pounds — has NBA big man size. Plus this guy has all the physical tools you want in a center — he moves well, has soft hands, has shown good touch around the rim, can pass, can blocks shots, and he rebounds.
At least, that’s what the team that drafts him will say, but the reality is a little different — Len is raw offensively. There’s a lot of potential, but a lot of questions. Questions such as why other reasonably-sized big men could push him out of the post in college.
Len is hot in part because we haven’t really seen what he can do, and therefore haven’t picked apart his strengths and weaknesses to the same degree as others.
It was hard to get a read from his days at Maryland how good he was because guards couldn’t get him the ball (the Terrapins’ floor spacing was terrible). If you thought you could get a good read on him at the NBA Draft Combine or private workouts, guess again. The ankle surgery did that in. So teams are searching for better information about Len.
When an NBA team drafts a guy it’s not what he can do for them this coming season that matters, it’s what he can do three years down the line. Five years down the line. Some GMs think Len could be better than Noel three years from now. So they are willing to roll the dice on him more than anyone else is this draft.
Opinions around the league vary on Len — some teams love him, some want nothing to do with him. But all it takes is one GM near the top of the draft to put a lot of pressure on Len and pick him near the top. And on that GM takes on the pressure too for taking the risk.
But if it’s not No. 1 it is top six for sure. Len is going to go high up.