Skip to content

Odds for the NBA Draft Lottery (that teams don’t care if they win)

May 21, 2013, 2:03 PM EDT

Grant Gilbert AP

The NBA lottery is totally fixed, but in the interest of appeasing the NBA, we’re going to share the odds the league says each team has of receiving each pick.

We will add that it’s been a long time since there was this little buzz around the NBA about the lottery — because nobody really cares if they get the top pick. A couple teams have already hinted that if they win it, they are going to shop it around for a trade. Why? There are some nice players in this draft (Nerlens Noel, Trey Burke) but no real franchise changers. Future starters, some good rotation players, but whoever gets drafted at the top of this class will have expectations on him he almost certainly will not meet.

The lottery determines only the top three picks, so not each team can receive each pick. For example, the eighth-seeded Wizards are eligible to land only picks 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10 or 11.

Here are the full odds for each team:

Magic

  • One: 25 percent
  • Two: 21.507 percent
  • Three: 17.76753 percent
  • Four: 35.72541 percent

Bobcats

  • One: 19.9 percent
  • Two: 18.80896 percent
  • Three: 17.11759 percent
  • Four: 31.85529 percent
  • Five: 12.31814 percent
  • Thirteen: 0.00065 percent (from Trail Blazers)

Cavaliers

  • One: 15.6 percent
  • Two: 15.73695 percent
  • Three: 15.58053 percent
  • Four: 22.56471 percent
  • Five: 26.48206 percent
  • Six: 4.03576 percent

Suns

  • One: 11.9 percent
  • Two: 12.59662 percent
  • Three: 13.29535 percent
  • Four: 9.85451 percent
  • Five: 35.05137 percent
  • Six: 16.04898 percent
  • Seven: 1.25314 percent

Pelicans

  • One: 8.8 percent
  • Two: 9.65468 percent
  • Three: 10.6772 percent
  • Five: 26.14841 percent
  • Six: 35.96765 percent
  • Seven: 8.38169 percent
  • Eight: 0.37034 percent

Kings

  • One: 6.3 percent
  • Two: 7.09618 percent
  • Three: 8.11381 percent
  • Six: 43.94758 percent
  • Seven: 30.43731 percent
  • Eight: 4.00008 percent
  • Nine: 0.10503 percent

Pistons

  • One: 3.6 percent
  • Two: 4.16257 percent
  • Three: 4.91491 percent
  • Seven: 59.92783 percent
  • Eight: 25.30111 percent
  • Nine: 2.05964 percent
  • Ten: 0.03393 percent

Wizards

  • One: 3.5 percent
  • Two: 4.0507 percent
  • Three: 4.78819 percent
  • Eight: 70.32848 percent
  • Nine: 16.52498 percent
  • Ten: 0.79965 percent
  • Eleven: 0.00801 percent

Timberwolves

  • One: 1.7 percent
  • Two: 1.99974 percent
  • Three: 2.40995 percent
  • Nine: 81.31034 percent
  • Ten: 12.19939 percent
  • Eleven: 0.37823 percent
  • Twelve: 0.00235 percent

Trail Blazers

  • One: 1.1 percent
  • Two: 1.30074 percent
  • Three: 1.57717 percent
  • Ten: 86.96703 percent
  • Eleven: 8.87541 percent
  • Twelve: 0.179 percent

76ers

  • One: 0.8 percent
  • Two: 0.94844 percent
  • Three: 1.15345 percent
  • Eleven: 90.73834 percent
  • Twelve: 6.28269 percent
  • Thirteen: 0.07694 percent
  • Fourteen: 0.00013 percent

Raptors

  • One: 0.7 percent
  • Two: 0.83059 percent
  • Three: 1.01114 percent

Mavericks

  • One: 0.6 percent
  • Two: 0.71255 percent
  • Three: 0.86829 percent
  • Thirteen: 96.02189 percent
  • Fourteen: 1.79737 percent

Jazz

  • One: 0.5 percent
  • Two: 0.59429 percent
  • Three: 0.7249 percent
  • Fourteen: 98.1809 percent

Thunder

  • Twelve: 93.53599 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)
  • Thirteen: 3.90061 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)
  • Fourteen: 0.02169 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)
  1. 4thquartermagic - May 21, 2013 at 2:11 PM

    Haha title says it all.

    The NBA is the rare sport where you can change your entire franchise in one year if:

    1) You win the lottery.
    2) There’s an amazing talent available.

    This year, there is no amazing talent.

  2. skinsfanwill - May 21, 2013 at 2:14 PM

    Thanks for posting this. This should eliminate any possible conspiracy theories. I sure believed it was always fixed. Still do…At least now I can predict a little better while the draft is going on.

  3. skinsfanwill - May 21, 2013 at 2:15 PM

    No matter what the percentages say, they should still pick the those in front of a camera. Just like the state lottery.

  4. packhawk04 - May 21, 2013 at 2:39 PM

    If its fixed, just tell me who gets the first pick.

    • 4thquartermagic - May 21, 2013 at 2:48 PM

      Lol what happened to the PBT Blog post about the NBA Lottery being fixed?
      Was up this morning for about 20 minutes.

      The fact that the article was pulled should tell you all you need to know.

      • asimonetti88 - May 21, 2013 at 3:45 PM

        It’s still there big guy!

        http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/21/why-theres-a-100-percent-chance-the-nba-lottery-is-fixed/

    • biasedhomer - May 21, 2013 at 7:19 PM

      They will give it to the team that was screwed over the most.

      Cavs won it after Lebron left, Pelicans won it after CP3 trade.

      It will probably be the Magic for losing Dwight, but I could see the Sixers winning it.

  5. cj1403 - May 21, 2013 at 3:02 PM

    @4thquartermagic The article wasn’t pulled. Just read it 20min ago.

    • 4thquartermagic - May 21, 2013 at 4:40 PM

      my mistake

  6. khmerson562 - May 21, 2013 at 3:09 PM

    Predicting Cleveland will get the first pick so kyrie Irving won’t leave Cleveland when he become a free agent.

  7. money2long - May 21, 2013 at 3:38 PM

    i hear alotta of ppl talking fixed this, fixed that. i wanna know, what team you think the nba world, of stern and his minions, has handpicked to be the lucky winner tonight. not even really who’s going to win, but who the league is favoring the most. cuz if you were in charge of fixing the 2013 lottery tonight, who would you pick? it’d be interesting to see if that team wins

    • money2long - May 21, 2013 at 6:44 PM

      i guess we’re just going to wait to see who wins b4 declaring it was fixed? makes sense. not.

  8. mazblast - May 21, 2013 at 5:06 PM

    Little Caesar only fixes the lottery when there’s a good reason to fix it. No superstar player, no sick kid representing a team, etc., this time around. For that reason, I think it’ll be honest THIS year.

  9. rickover50 - May 21, 2013 at 5:06 PM

    its the pistons turn. buy a team and get promised the number one. just like new orleans last year…

  10. mattymarts17 - May 21, 2013 at 5:18 PM

    Haha “Pelicans” that just doesn’t look right.

  11. fearthehoody - May 21, 2013 at 5:24 PM

    NBA is fixed anyway, dont matter

  12. captainthree - May 21, 2013 at 5:42 PM

    Well dont be surprised if the fix is in again. My gut feeling tells me that the “Magoofs” are going to get the first pick because they managed to keep the team in Sacramento, just like the Pelicans “lucked” out last year.

Leave Comment

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!

Featured video

What players stood out at World Cup?
Top 10 NBA Player Searches
  1. R. Rondo (2691)
  2. E. Bledsoe (2603)
  3. K. Bryant (2239)
  4. L. James (2137)
  5. D. Rose (1877)
  1. R. Allen (1720)
  2. N. Young (1650)
  3. K. Irving (1552)
  4. J. Hickson (1514)
  5. B. Jennings (1462)