May 14, 2013, 2:22 PM EDT
How important is this game 5 to both teams? Historically, in the NBA, the team that goes up 3-2 wins the series 85.7% of the time. And while that’s not necessarily a doom’s day scenario for the loser, it’s pretty close.
For the Warriors, it may be even more important as it’s hard to see them winning a game 7 on the road in San Antonio. If they can claim this game, they get a chance to close out the veteran Spurs in Oakland, in front of a raucous crowd that can carry them for long stretches.
Getting to play for that chance will be easier said than down, however.
The Warriors have seemingly been at their best all playoffs when they play small. In game 4, Mark Jackson’s hand was forced in that direction as he saw nearly every one of his big men get into foul trouble. This forced Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green into the power forward slot, putting more quickness and defensive versatility on the floor which, in turn, helped contain the Spurs’ dribble penetration game.
Will Jackson go this route on his own tonight? If he does, he can use the speed and playmaking ability of Barnes and Green respectively to help turn the tempo of the game in his team’s favor. Those skills will be especially needed if Stephen Curry is still feeling the affects of his sprained left ankle.
Jackson deployed Curry brilliantly in game 4, monitoring his minutes closely and getting the most out of him in the process. That said, part of Curry’s effectiveness was related to having Tony Parker guard him most of that game and, tonight, that’s likely to change. Danny Green has been a thorn in Curry’s side all series and even if it forces mismatches in other areas, expect for Curry to receive maximum defensive attention even if he’s still hobbled.
The other key to the Warriors’ attack will be how Jarrett Jack performs. His 24 points in game 4 were key to Golden State keeping the game close and ultimately winning in overtime. However, Jack’s shaky play in game 3 helped the Spurs claim that game. If Jack can make shots and channel his aggressive play into good production, he can be a major X-factor.
For the Spurs, they need better play from their role players. Since scoring 22 points on 8-14 shooting in game 1, Danny Green has only scored 23 points total over the next 3 games while only making 9 of his 28 shots. The Spurs need Green’s outside shooting to give Duncan and Parker space to operate in the paint.
And speaking of Duncan, he must also find a way to be more productive than the 7-22 shooting effort he posted in game 4. Andrew Bogut is doing a fantastic job of pushing Duncan off his spots, forcing him to work further from the hoop and then challenging his shots expertly. Duncan needs to start to hit his outside jumper and then use that threat to drive hard to the rim where he can either draw fouls or get shots closer to the rim.
San Antonio could also use another good game from Manu Ginobili. His 21 points in 37 minutes in game 4 helped counter the poor shooting nights from Tony Parker and Duncan and a repeat performance would go a long way towards helping the Spurs claim this one. Ginobili hasn’t been his most consistent this season, but he’s long been a big game player and this game certainly qualifies as that.
At this point, accurately predicting what will happen in any game is a fools errand. After it’s all said and done, the game could just as easily be decided on a great game by one of the stars as much as a role player. Such has been the way of this series, making it the most entertaining match up so far. As a fan, I just want another great game.
Considering what’s at stake for both teams, I think we’ll get it.
Apr 19, 2014, 4:06 PM EDT
Playoff games are played in the halfcourt and the Nets owned that in Game 1.
Apr 19, 2014, 2:39 PM EDT
A rare and raw show of emotion from a team’s GM was caught on camera.
Nash to Nowitzki: ‘What would you do if you were me? Would you come back?’ Dirk: ‘I’m not sure, bro.’ (VIDEO)
Apr 19, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
Dirk Nowizki is brutally honest.
Apr 19, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
“Garnett and Pierce are so old the Raptor had to ask his dad about them.”
Apr 19, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Words continue to be exchanged between two teams that clearly don’t like each other.
Apr 19, 2014, 9:29 AM EDT
The owners are behind Silver’s effort to raise the age limit. Now there’s just the pesky matter of negotiating with the players’ union.
Apr 19, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
You can construct a scenario where the Pacers are in trouble… except they play the Hawks.
Apr 19, 2014, 2:15 AM EDT
Making your playoff preview reading convenient.
Apr 19, 2014, 1:54 AM EDT
Grizzlies’ guard will definitely be missed in the rotation.
Apr 19, 2014, 1:50 AM EDT
We may not see him on the sidelines of TNT games these playoffs.
Apr 18, 2014, 11:55 PM EDT
This should be the East’s most competitive first round matchup.
Apr 18, 2014, 10:31 PM EDT
How quickly can Miami flip the switch?
Apr 18, 2014, 9:16 PM EDT
Can the Pacers regain their early-season swagger now that the playoffs are here?
Apr 18, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT
Expect a fight by the end of Game 2.
Apr 18, 2014, 5:50 PM EDT
People shouldn’t sleep on the Raptors, particularly the Nets.
Apr 18, 2014, 5:05 PM EDT
Dallas has lost nine straight to San Antonio. Don’t expect that streak to stop now.
Apr 18, 2014, 4:19 PM EDT
All the draft lottery odds are here, so Lakers fans can look and see what that little run of wins to close out the season did to their odds.
Apr 18, 2014, 3:27 PM EDT
We look at all 8 first round series.
Apr 18, 2014, 2:37 PM EDT
Memphis’ grit and grind will make it hard on the Thunder.
Apr 18, 2014, 1:45 PM EDT
Rockets in 7
- Nets defense smothers Raptors, gets Brooklyn Game 1 win on road 0
- PBT Extra: Are Pacers or Spurs in any trouble in first round? 5
- All PBT’s first round playoff previews in one place 0
- Grizzlies guard Nick Calathes suspended 20 games for violating NBA’s anti-drug policy 27
- Craig Sager has acute leukemia 28