May 14, 2013, 2:22 PM EDT
How important is this game 5 to both teams? Historically, in the NBA, the team that goes up 3-2 wins the series 85.7% of the time. And while that’s not necessarily a doom’s day scenario for the loser, it’s pretty close.
For the Warriors, it may be even more important as it’s hard to see them winning a game 7 on the road in San Antonio. If they can claim this game, they get a chance to close out the veteran Spurs in Oakland, in front of a raucous crowd that can carry them for long stretches.
Getting to play for that chance will be easier said than down, however.
The Warriors have seemingly been at their best all playoffs when they play small. In game 4, Mark Jackson’s hand was forced in that direction as he saw nearly every one of his big men get into foul trouble. This forced Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green into the power forward slot, putting more quickness and defensive versatility on the floor which, in turn, helped contain the Spurs’ dribble penetration game.
Will Jackson go this route on his own tonight? If he does, he can use the speed and playmaking ability of Barnes and Green respectively to help turn the tempo of the game in his team’s favor. Those skills will be especially needed if Stephen Curry is still feeling the affects of his sprained left ankle.
Jackson deployed Curry brilliantly in game 4, monitoring his minutes closely and getting the most out of him in the process. That said, part of Curry’s effectiveness was related to having Tony Parker guard him most of that game and, tonight, that’s likely to change. Danny Green has been a thorn in Curry’s side all series and even if it forces mismatches in other areas, expect for Curry to receive maximum defensive attention even if he’s still hobbled.
The other key to the Warriors’ attack will be how Jarrett Jack performs. His 24 points in game 4 were key to Golden State keeping the game close and ultimately winning in overtime. However, Jack’s shaky play in game 3 helped the Spurs claim that game. If Jack can make shots and channel his aggressive play into good production, he can be a major X-factor.
For the Spurs, they need better play from their role players. Since scoring 22 points on 8-14 shooting in game 1, Danny Green has only scored 23 points total over the next 3 games while only making 9 of his 28 shots. The Spurs need Green’s outside shooting to give Duncan and Parker space to operate in the paint.
And speaking of Duncan, he must also find a way to be more productive than the 7-22 shooting effort he posted in game 4. Andrew Bogut is doing a fantastic job of pushing Duncan off his spots, forcing him to work further from the hoop and then challenging his shots expertly. Duncan needs to start to hit his outside jumper and then use that threat to drive hard to the rim where he can either draw fouls or get shots closer to the rim.
San Antonio could also use another good game from Manu Ginobili. His 21 points in 37 minutes in game 4 helped counter the poor shooting nights from Tony Parker and Duncan and a repeat performance would go a long way towards helping the Spurs claim this one. Ginobili hasn’t been his most consistent this season, but he’s long been a big game player and this game certainly qualifies as that.
At this point, accurately predicting what will happen in any game is a fools errand. After it’s all said and done, the game could just as easily be decided on a great game by one of the stars as much as a role player. Such has been the way of this series, making it the most entertaining match up so far. As a fan, I just want another great game.
Considering what’s at stake for both teams, I think we’ll get it.
Jul 3, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
She’s a San Antonio assistant coach
Jul 3, 2015, 4:31 PM EDT
Key for the Wizards is this is a one-year deal, so they save their cap space for a Kevin Durant offer next summer.
Jul 3, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
This is a huge blow to the Clippers roster.
Jul 3, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
This was expected, now the Knicks move forward with Robin Lopez.
Jul 3, 2015, 2:52 PM EDT
Solid deal in a vacuum, but in Sacramento…
Report: Knicks to sign Robin Lopez to four-year, $54 million contract (unless DeAndre Jordan changes his mind)
Jul 3, 2015, 1:58 PM EDT
More evidence Jordan won’t pick Knicks
Jul 3, 2015, 1:35 PM EDT
Washington could land David West
Jul 3, 2015, 12:07 PM EDT
Third year is reportedly a team option
Jul 3, 2015, 11:08 AM EDT
I doubt Sacramento is celebrating quite yet
Jul 3, 2015, 10:31 AM EDT
Brooklyn making most of a self-inflicted bad situation
Jul 3, 2015, 9:50 AM EDT
If LaMarcus Aldridge signs elsewhere, San Antonio makes a lot of sense
Jul 3, 2015, 9:14 AM EDT
So Knicks are probably getting Robin Lopez
Jul 3, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
In this market even if these deals are misses, they are correctable ones.
Jul 3, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
I don’t think the Lakers are all that serious here.
Jul 3, 2015, 2:19 AM EDT
Sacramento had made a big push but again missed out on their target.
Jul 2, 2015, 11:31 PM EDT
Martin had hoped to return full-time last season, but the opportunity never materialized.
Jul 2, 2015, 10:34 PM EDT
Sacramento needs to overpay much more than that to lure free agents.
Jul 2, 2015, 9:22 PM EDT
Lopez is solid, and New York and L.A. need talent after striking out with the big names thus far.
Report: Damian Lillard planning L.A. visit to try to convince LaMarcus Aldridge to re-sign with Blazers
Jul 2, 2015, 8:21 PM EDT
Interesting wrinkle to the Aldridge free agency saga.
Jul 2, 2015, 7:07 PM EDT
The Wizards will only give up a future second-rounder.
- Report: DeAndre Jordan “on verge ” of taking max deal to join Dallas Mavericks 24
- Report: Kings signing Marco Belinelli to three-year, $19 million contract 11
- Report: Knicks to sign Robin Lopez to four-year, $54 million contract (unless DeAndre Jordan changes his mind) 8
- PBT Extra: Free agent signings we didn’t love 5
- Report: Wes Matthews reaches agreement to join Dallas Mavericks 22
- PBT Extra: Five best free agent signings in the first days of free agency 11
- Dwyane Wade agrees to one-year, $20 million deal to stay with Heat 55
- PBT Podcast: Talking best signings of free agency so far 0