May 14, 2013, 2:22 PM EST
How important is this game 5 to both teams? Historically, in the NBA, the team that goes up 3-2 wins the series 85.7% of the time. And while that’s not necessarily a doom’s day scenario for the loser, it’s pretty close.
For the Warriors, it may be even more important as it’s hard to see them winning a game 7 on the road in San Antonio. If they can claim this game, they get a chance to close out the veteran Spurs in Oakland, in front of a raucous crowd that can carry them for long stretches.
Getting to play for that chance will be easier said than down, however.
The Warriors have seemingly been at their best all playoffs when they play small. In game 4, Mark Jackson’s hand was forced in that direction as he saw nearly every one of his big men get into foul trouble. This forced Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green into the power forward slot, putting more quickness and defensive versatility on the floor which, in turn, helped contain the Spurs’ dribble penetration game.
Will Jackson go this route on his own tonight? If he does, he can use the speed and playmaking ability of Barnes and Green respectively to help turn the tempo of the game in his team’s favor. Those skills will be especially needed if Stephen Curry is still feeling the affects of his sprained left ankle.
Jackson deployed Curry brilliantly in game 4, monitoring his minutes closely and getting the most out of him in the process. That said, part of Curry’s effectiveness was related to having Tony Parker guard him most of that game and, tonight, that’s likely to change. Danny Green has been a thorn in Curry’s side all series and even if it forces mismatches in other areas, expect for Curry to receive maximum defensive attention even if he’s still hobbled.
The other key to the Warriors’ attack will be how Jarrett Jack performs. His 24 points in game 4 were key to Golden State keeping the game close and ultimately winning in overtime. However, Jack’s shaky play in game 3 helped the Spurs claim that game. If Jack can make shots and channel his aggressive play into good production, he can be a major X-factor.
For the Spurs, they need better play from their role players. Since scoring 22 points on 8-14 shooting in game 1, Danny Green has only scored 23 points total over the next 3 games while only making 9 of his 28 shots. The Spurs need Green’s outside shooting to give Duncan and Parker space to operate in the paint.
And speaking of Duncan, he must also find a way to be more productive than the 7-22 shooting effort he posted in game 4. Andrew Bogut is doing a fantastic job of pushing Duncan off his spots, forcing him to work further from the hoop and then challenging his shots expertly. Duncan needs to start to hit his outside jumper and then use that threat to drive hard to the rim where he can either draw fouls or get shots closer to the rim.
San Antonio could also use another good game from Manu Ginobili. His 21 points in 37 minutes in game 4 helped counter the poor shooting nights from Tony Parker and Duncan and a repeat performance would go a long way towards helping the Spurs claim this one. Ginobili hasn’t been his most consistent this season, but he’s long been a big game player and this game certainly qualifies as that.
At this point, accurately predicting what will happen in any game is a fools errand. After it’s all said and done, the game could just as easily be decided on a great game by one of the stars as much as a role player. Such has been the way of this series, making it the most entertaining match up so far. As a fan, I just want another great game.
Considering what’s at stake for both teams, I think we’ll get it.
Mar 2, 2015, 11:59 AM EST
Sleeves notwithstanding, these are good
Mar 2, 2015, 11:21 AM EST
Trail Blazers’ Paul Allen falls to No. 2 among NBA owners
Mar 2, 2015, 10:32 AM EST
Trail Blazers center has moves – or at least a move
Mar 2, 2015, 9:53 AM EST
For some reason, Bulls fans boo this athletic feat
Mar 2, 2015, 9:07 AM EST
LeBron: ‘I have no idea why he would do that’
Mar 2, 2015, 8:30 AM EST
He remains out for the rest of this season at least.
Mar 2, 2015, 8:00 AM EST
Well played, Rockets.
Mar 2, 2015, 2:50 AM EST
We have video evidence Brandon Bass can dunk.
Mar 2, 2015, 1:17 AM EST
Contenders will be lined up to sign him.
Mar 1, 2015, 10:36 PM EST
They played like MVP candidates.
Mar 1, 2015, 8:59 PM EST
Harden got a technical foul for this.
Mar 1, 2015, 7:30 PM EST
As in six weeks left in the season.
Mar 1, 2015, 6:00 PM EST
Jordan shot 12 free throws against the Bulls.
Mar 1, 2015, 4:30 PM EST
The deadline for McGee to be waived in order to be eligible to join another team for the playoffs is midnight Sunday.
Mar 1, 2015, 3:31 PM EST
Another hit to Chicago’s roster.
Mar 1, 2015, 2:30 PM EST
Silver talked about the league one day sharing injury data at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
Mar 1, 2015, 1:00 PM EST
Mar 1, 2015, 11:30 AM EST
A look at upcoming retro releases of the Jordan VIII, Jordan 1, Jordan XIV Low, and the Jordan VII.
Mar 1, 2015, 10:00 AM EST
Odd timing, only because fans in Phoenix have historically shown up for games against San Antonio and Los Angeles.
Mar 1, 2015, 8:33 AM EST
Beasley throws one down in his second game back with the Heat.
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