May 14, 2013, 7:04 PM EDT
The Knicks have fundamental problems against the Pacers, primarily rebounding. It’s virtually impossible for New York to re-invent itself this deep into the playoffs, and consequently, a big and physical Indiana team will likely continue holding an advantage on the glass. But that doesn’t mean the Knicks are doomed, and there’s a simple way form them to overcome their deficiency:
More specifically, make 2-point shots.
The Knicks bombed their way to the NBA’s third-best regular-season offense on the strength of their 3-point shooting. New York scored 33 percent of its points on 3-pointers, the league’s top mark.
In Game 3, the Knicks’ biggest problem 3-point problem was generating attempts. The Pacers don’t help much on defense, so New York’s shooters couldn’t get open, and the Knicks shot just 3-for-11 from beyond the arc. That was the first time this season they didn’t take at least 18 3-pointers.
The solution might be more mid-range shots.
NBA teams have mostly realized shots at the rim and 3-pointers are more efficient than any other area of the court. So, teams are tilting their defenses to cover shots at the rim and 3-pointers. At some point, teams will go so far with that defensive approach that they vacate the area between the paint and arc, making mid-range shots efficient. We’re not there yet league-wide – and probably not even close – but maybe the Knicks have reached that point in this series. The Pacers have just defended 3-pointers and shots at the rim so well.
Of course, there’s a difference between isolation mid-range shots and mid-range shots that come from pick-and-rolls and good ball movement, and New York should look for the latter.
The Knicks turned the ball over least in the NBA during the regular season, and they’re turning it over even less against the Pacers. That’s partially because Indiana focuses on causing misses and rebounding them rather than forcing turnovers, but it’s also because New York hasn’t taken enough strategic risks in moving the ball.
If the Knicks pass well and make their mid-range shots, maybe Roy Hibbert will have to pay a little more attention outside the paint on pick-and-rolls. That could open lobs for Tyson Chandler, putbacks for Kenyon Martin and more.
But it all starts with making shots.