May 7, 2013, 7:59 AM EST
Legendary baseball statistician Bill James once said the big problem with the NBA is that the best team usually wins in the playoffs.
He’s right, the NBA playoffs tend to follow form. And he’s right that we like unpredictability in the playoffs. Baseball has a long grind of a season, but in a seven game playoff series things get random and a hot bat or arm can win it. The NFL playoffs are one-and-done where upsets are common. Last year the eight-seed Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup. We love the randomness of 15 seeds winning a game in the NCAA Tournament, where the person whose system of picking teams is “my grandmother was from Wichita” can win the office pool.
But the NBA playoffs are more predictable. Before the season even starts we have a pretty good idea who the handful of title contenders are.
Bill James would have loved Monday night.
These 2013 NBA playoffs have been unpredictable so far. Which has made these playoffs interesting.
Nobody gave the banged-up Bulls much of a chance against the Heat — our official preview at PBT predicted a sweep. Even Bulls writers such as CSNChicago.com’s Aggrey Sam were predicting the Heat in five.
But we also all knew those games would be close and hard-fought — the Bulls defend and can score inside, two things you have to do to have any success against the Heat. That strategy worked early — the Bulls led by 8 after an 11-3 run to end the first quarter. The game stayed close the entire way, no team leading by double digits.
But through it all we kept waiting for that patented Heat run where they just pull away and there is nothing the other team can do.
It never came. Rather it was the Bulls who closed the game on a 10-0 run behind Robinson to get the win.
The Warriors on the other hand did have a big lead, thanks to Stephen Curry having a seemingly unstoppable night. He finished it all with 44 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 6-of-14 from three and just being devastating.
The Warriors led by 16 in the fourth and it looked like Monday was the night of upsets, but then the Spurs had a late 15-0 run and after some traded buckets we were going to overtime. Then double overtime. And the Warriors led that with 4 seconds to go, but the Spurs did what the Spurs do and Manu Ginobili got wide open for a three and drained it to give the Sours the win.
Still, it was the best game of these playoffs. An amazing night that is just the latest in an amazing playoffs where the lower seed won in 3-of-8 first round series.
Sure, the odds of a Heat vs. Spurs finals is still far better than a Bulls vs. Warriors one. Everything may still follow form. But James goes on to say in his piece that because the NBA playoffs follow form so often the underdog will not try as hard — why dive for a loose ball or make the extra effort if you can’t win? There he misses the point — human nature is to struggle against long odds, at least for some. People do not give up. NBA teams and players do not give up.
We saw that Monday, a sign of the uncertainty the NBA playoffs have found this year. And it’s fun to watch.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:33 AM EST
He had been in the hospital for weeks following multiple heart attacks.
Feb 28, 2015, 9:30 AM EST
The Knicks got the double OT win in Detroit, this shot was key.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:00 AM EST
Westbrook is averaging a triple-double over his last five games.
Feb 28, 2015, 1:02 AM EST
To quote Bob Uecker, “juuuuust a bit outside.”
Feb 27, 2015, 11:00 PM EST
There is about as much chance of me getting a date with Emily Ratajkowski this weekend as there is of this actually happening.
Shane Battier on Carmelo Anthony: ‘Last two years I guarded him, he did exactly what the scouting report said he would’
Feb 27, 2015, 10:00 PM EST
Maybe, but Melo still dropped 50 on Battier’s Heat in 2013.
Feb 27, 2015, 9:00 PM EST
NBA teams are considering the question
Daryl Morey believes two bad shots are better than one good shot (always), but data wasn’t significant enough for Jeff Van Gundy to change
Feb 27, 2015, 7:59 PM EST
An interesting anecdote from Morey (speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference) about how the data showed an advantage, but not one big enough for his coach to change.
Feb 27, 2015, 6:59 PM EST
Instead of 30-year plan, assistant Celtics general manager unveils five-year and 10-year plans
Feb 27, 2015, 6:07 PM EST
Kevin Love, it’s your show.
Feb 27, 2015, 5:30 PM EST
There are financial obstacles in the way of dropping 22 games from the schedule, but Battier makes a somewhat compelling case.
Feb 27, 2015, 4:56 PM EST
He’s day to day. (Insert your Keith Olberman joke here.)
Feb 27, 2015, 4:30 PM EST
It’s not going to change most fans’ minds, but it’s a good first step.
Feb 27, 2015, 3:45 PM EST
Don’t be surprised if another bidder comes in over the top.
Feb 27, 2015, 3:15 PM EST
Don’t expect him to return, but if he does Cleveland appears off the list.
Feb 27, 2015, 2:45 PM EST
Turns out Common was a Bulls ball boy back in the early Jordan era in Chicago, so he and Michael Jordan had some laughs together.
Jeff Van Gundy to Daryl Morey when he flinched at using analytics to make a decision: ‘Either you believe in this sh-t or you don’t’
Feb 27, 2015, 2:14 PM EST
The data said that Dikembe Mutombo was better than Yao Ming, but Morey wasn’t ready to make that call.
Feb 27, 2015, 1:30 PM EST
A team’s best players hold each other accountable, according to the former NBA player.
Feb 27, 2015, 12:48 PM EST
Phil Jackson can’t just quietly sneak into a building and watch a prospect, so a reporter asked him a question. Jackson answered and will pay for that.
Feb 27, 2015, 11:58 AM EST
This makes the Bulls a lot more dangerous come the playoffs.
- Former All-Star, popular Knick Anthony Mason dies at age 48 0
- Russell Westbrook posts third straight triple-double, Thunder lose anyway 4
- Shane Battier: ‘I think a 60-game season would be perfect’ 15
- Kyrie Irving has strained left shoulder, out Friday vs. Pacers 0
- Derrick Rose expected to return in 4-6 weeks. In time for playoffs. 20
- Five Things We Learned in NBA Thursday: The Cavaliers we expected have arrived 17
- Report: George Karl controls Kings’ personnel, wants Ty Lawson, willing to move DeMarcus Cousins 29
- Paul George returns to practice with Pacers, could play in couple weeks 8