May 7, 2013, 7:59 AM EDT
Legendary baseball statistician Bill James once said the big problem with the NBA is that the best team usually wins in the playoffs.
He’s right, the NBA playoffs tend to follow form. And he’s right that we like unpredictability in the playoffs. Baseball has a long grind of a season, but in a seven game playoff series things get random and a hot bat or arm can win it. The NFL playoffs are one-and-done where upsets are common. Last year the eight-seed Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup. We love the randomness of 15 seeds winning a game in the NCAA Tournament, where the person whose system of picking teams is “my grandmother was from Wichita” can win the office pool.
But the NBA playoffs are more predictable. Before the season even starts we have a pretty good idea who the handful of title contenders are.
Bill James would have loved Monday night.
These 2013 NBA playoffs have been unpredictable so far. Which has made these playoffs interesting.
Nobody gave the banged-up Bulls much of a chance against the Heat — our official preview at PBT predicted a sweep. Even Bulls writers such as CSNChicago.com’s Aggrey Sam were predicting the Heat in five.
But we also all knew those games would be close and hard-fought — the Bulls defend and can score inside, two things you have to do to have any success against the Heat. That strategy worked early — the Bulls led by 8 after an 11-3 run to end the first quarter. The game stayed close the entire way, no team leading by double digits.
But through it all we kept waiting for that patented Heat run where they just pull away and there is nothing the other team can do.
It never came. Rather it was the Bulls who closed the game on a 10-0 run behind Robinson to get the win.
The Warriors on the other hand did have a big lead, thanks to Stephen Curry having a seemingly unstoppable night. He finished it all with 44 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 6-of-14 from three and just being devastating.
The Warriors led by 16 in the fourth and it looked like Monday was the night of upsets, but then the Spurs had a late 15-0 run and after some traded buckets we were going to overtime. Then double overtime. And the Warriors led that with 4 seconds to go, but the Spurs did what the Spurs do and Manu Ginobili got wide open for a three and drained it to give the Sours the win.
Still, it was the best game of these playoffs. An amazing night that is just the latest in an amazing playoffs where the lower seed won in 3-of-8 first round series.
Sure, the odds of a Heat vs. Spurs finals is still far better than a Bulls vs. Warriors one. Everything may still follow form. But James goes on to say in his piece that because the NBA playoffs follow form so often the underdog will not try as hard — why dive for a loose ball or make the extra effort if you can’t win? There he misses the point — human nature is to struggle against long odds, at least for some. People do not give up. NBA teams and players do not give up.
We saw that Monday, a sign of the uncertainty the NBA playoffs have found this year. And it’s fun to watch.
Jul 2, 2015, 10:34 PM EDT
Sacramento needs to overpay much more than that to lure free agents.
Jul 2, 2015, 9:22 PM EDT
Lopez is solid, and New York and L.A. need talent after striking out with the big names thus far.
Report: Damian Lillard planning L.A. visit to try to convince LaMarcus Aldridge to re-sign with Blazers
Jul 2, 2015, 8:21 PM EDT
Interesting wrinkle to the Aldridge free agency saga.
Jul 2, 2015, 7:07 PM EDT
The Wizards will only give up a future second-rounder.
Jul 2, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
Butler just signed a five-year deal to stay in Chicago.
Jul 2, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
Toronto makes the list with DeMarre Carroll.
Jul 2, 2015, 6:08 PM EDT
Report: Mavericks and Pacers will discuss Monta Ellis/Roy Hibbert sign-and-trade if Mavs don’t get DeAndre Jordan
Jul 2, 2015, 5:24 PM EDT
The Pacers have been shopping Hibbert for a while.
Jul 2, 2015, 4:38 PM EDT
Aldridge doesn’t want to play center.
Jul 2, 2015, 4:37 PM EDT
It would take an unlikely sign-and-trade to make it happen.
Jul 2, 2015, 4:26 PM EDT
They want to “get it right.”
Jul 2, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
Also, who got overpaid so far?
Jul 2, 2015, 3:49 PM EDT
Phoenix is clearing cap space to land LaMarcus Aldridge.
Jul 2, 2015, 3:11 PM EDT
Thompson and Cleveland were reportedly nearing $80 million-plus deal yesterday
Jul 2, 2015, 2:49 PM EDT
More writing on the wall of LaMarcus Aldridge’s exit
Jul 2, 2015, 2:06 PM EDT
Now, can the Spurs get LaMarcus Aldridge to complement him?
Jul 2, 2015, 1:45 PM EDT
Baynes will reportedly get three-year deal with player option
Jul 2, 2015, 1:23 PM EDT
Indiana shouldn’t feel good about this, even if it was their best option at this point
Jul 2, 2015, 12:29 PM EDT
Monroe agreed to a three-year max contract with Bucks
Jul 2, 2015, 11:51 AM EDT
Atlanta drafted Tavares in 2014
- PBT Extra: Five best free agent signings in the first days of free agency 7
- Dwyane Wade agrees to one-year, $20 million deal to stay with Heat 51
- PBT Podcast: Talking best signings of free agency so far 0
- Report: Pacers agree to four-year, $44 million contract with Monta Ellis 22
- Report: Greg Monroe signing a maximum contract with Bucks 56
- Lakers, Knicks struggle on hectic first day of free agency 64
- Trail Blazers assistant coach: ‘We didn’t publicize it, but we lost LaMarcus Aldridge’ 9
- Who is left on the board after wild first day of NBA free agency? 31