May 7, 2013, 7:59 AM EDT
Legendary baseball statistician Bill James once said the big problem with the NBA is that the best team usually wins in the playoffs.
He’s right, the NBA playoffs tend to follow form. And he’s right that we like unpredictability in the playoffs. Baseball has a long grind of a season, but in a seven game playoff series things get random and a hot bat or arm can win it. The NFL playoffs are one-and-done where upsets are common. Last year the eight-seed Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup. We love the randomness of 15 seeds winning a game in the NCAA Tournament, where the person whose system of picking teams is “my grandmother was from Wichita” can win the office pool.
But the NBA playoffs are more predictable. Before the season even starts we have a pretty good idea who the handful of title contenders are.
Bill James would have loved Monday night.
These 2013 NBA playoffs have been unpredictable so far. Which has made these playoffs interesting.
Nobody gave the banged-up Bulls much of a chance against the Heat — our official preview at PBT predicted a sweep. Even Bulls writers such as CSNChicago.com’s Aggrey Sam were predicting the Heat in five.
But we also all knew those games would be close and hard-fought — the Bulls defend and can score inside, two things you have to do to have any success against the Heat. That strategy worked early — the Bulls led by 8 after an 11-3 run to end the first quarter. The game stayed close the entire way, no team leading by double digits.
But through it all we kept waiting for that patented Heat run where they just pull away and there is nothing the other team can do.
It never came. Rather it was the Bulls who closed the game on a 10-0 run behind Robinson to get the win.
The Warriors on the other hand did have a big lead, thanks to Stephen Curry having a seemingly unstoppable night. He finished it all with 44 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 6-of-14 from three and just being devastating.
The Warriors led by 16 in the fourth and it looked like Monday was the night of upsets, but then the Spurs had a late 15-0 run and after some traded buckets we were going to overtime. Then double overtime. And the Warriors led that with 4 seconds to go, but the Spurs did what the Spurs do and Manu Ginobili got wide open for a three and drained it to give the Sours the win.
Still, it was the best game of these playoffs. An amazing night that is just the latest in an amazing playoffs where the lower seed won in 3-of-8 first round series.
Sure, the odds of a Heat vs. Spurs finals is still far better than a Bulls vs. Warriors one. Everything may still follow form. But James goes on to say in his piece that because the NBA playoffs follow form so often the underdog will not try as hard — why dive for a loose ball or make the extra effort if you can’t win? There he misses the point — human nature is to struggle against long odds, at least for some. People do not give up. NBA teams and players do not give up.
We saw that Monday, a sign of the uncertainty the NBA playoffs have found this year. And it’s fun to watch.
Aug 1, 2015, 1:11 AM EDT
This is the right move, whether he decides to play in Rio or not.
Jul 31, 2015, 11:08 PM EDT
He looks like a guy who can live up to the No. 1 pick billing.
Jul 31, 2015, 10:26 PM EDT
Norris Cole is still looking for a bigger payday.
Jul 31, 2015, 9:31 PM EDT
Her credentials are unassailable.
Jul 31, 2015, 8:10 PM EDT
He is currently out on bond.
Jul 31, 2015, 7:15 PM EDT
Hill told the police he was “in a hurry.” I guess so.
Jul 31, 2015, 7:01 PM EDT
Neither guy is going to make a difference on the court for these teams. This was just moving some money around.
Jul 31, 2015, 5:46 PM EDT
Crabbe looked good in Las Vegas at Summer League.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:59 PM EDT
The Kings don’t really have the roster spot for him.
Jul 31, 2015, 4:11 PM EDT
Iowa Energy add Nicki Gross to coaching staff
Jul 31, 2015, 3:20 PM EDT
Will he accept the required tender?
Jul 31, 2015, 2:35 PM EDT
The Phil Jackson Effect
Jul 31, 2015, 1:58 PM EDT
Why does USA Basketball chairman make such a distinction?
Jul 31, 2015, 12:52 PM EDT
Johnson makes $24.9 million, but this is the last year of his contract.
Jul 31, 2015, 12:47 PM EDT
New York drafted Giannis Antetokounmpo’s brother last year
Jul 31, 2015, 10:23 AM EDT
No. 58 pick will reportedly head overseas or to D-League
Jul 31, 2015, 9:21 AM EDT
Guard didn’t show much in short stint in New York
Jul 31, 2015, 8:35 AM EDT
“One thing to come out of this will be more camps, more clinics, more games, more youth competition, and from that you get into infrastructure, and building more courts.” —Masai Ujiri, Raptors GM and native Nigerian
Jul 31, 2015, 7:59 AM EDT
“And the coin flip was as much about, is there going to be anything else that we could do? Because we knew we had to do something.” —Mark Cuban on trading for Rajon Rondo.
Jul 30, 2015, 11:30 PM EDT
Hoiberg has a much stronger offensive reputation than Tom Thibodeau.
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