May 6, 2013, 8:00 AM EDT
Chicago: 45-37, five seed in the East
Miami: 66-16, one seed in the East, best record in the NBA
Chicago: Beat the Brooklyn Nets 4-3
Miami: Swept the Milwaukee Bucks 4-0
The teams split the four meetings with two wins apiece. The Bulls snapped the Heat’s 27-game winning streak on March 27.
The Bulls are likely to be without Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng at least to start the series, just as they were for their Game 7 win in Brooklyn over the Nets. There is no change to the status of Derrick Rose, who is expected to continue to be out for the rest of the playoffs.
Dwyane Wade missed Game 4 against the Bucks with a sore knee, but will have had eight days to rest by the time Game 1 against the Bulls tips off on Monday. He’s expected back.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession) – PLAYOFFS ONLY
Chicago: Offense 102.3 (9th in the postseason), Defense 104.9 (Tied-10th in the postseason)
Miami: Offense 108.6 (4th in the postseason), Defense 91.5 (3rd in the postseason)
THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES:
Rest or rust for Miami? The Heat have been so dominant in winning 41 of their last 43 games that sadly, it’s come to worrying about whether or not an eight-day layoff between the first and second round of the playoffs should be cause for concern. It isn’t. If Miami shows any signs at all of being out of sync, it won’t last beyond the first quarter of Game 1. The Bulls would be wise to maximize that opportunity to the fullest should it actually present itself.
For the Bulls, it’s all about defense: In order for the Bulls to have a shot in this series, they’ll need to contain LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, while still managing to get out and contest Miami’s three-point shooters. (Oh, is that all?) It starts with scoring enough so that Miami is taking the ball out of the net instead of off the glass, where the Heat can be as dangerous as any team in the league if they’re able to get out in transition. Even containing Miami’s scoring on the secondary break can be a problem for defenses to stop, so finding that balance between crashing for offensive rebounds and getting back to limit fast break opportunities will be critical for the Bulls, who will have the best chance to slow the Heat while defending them in traditional halfcourt sets.
Miami was second in the league during the regular season in three-point shooting percentage (trailing only the Golden State Warriors), and was sixth in the league in attempting more than 22 shots per game from beyond the arc. A lot of that comes from drive-and-kick actions from James and Wade, so playing team defense on the slashers with the interior players while staying at home on the shooters (or at least making sure to close out on them with purpose) is going to be another area of concentration defensively for the Bulls.
For the Heat, it’s all about intensity: The Bulls play extremely hard, all night, every night, no matter who is or is not in their lineup. The intensity with which Chicago approaches every single possession is the reason that despite the multitude of injuries the team has dealt with this season, it was still able to win a Game 7 on the road to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
The injuries to Deng and Hinrich that will likely keep them out for the first game or two of this series will hurt the Bulls overall, but it won’t hurt what they do offensively. Much like the Spurs, the Bulls are a system team that doesn’t rely too heavily on one or two players to carry the bulk of the scoring load on a nightly basis. If Nate Robinson, for example, isn’t forcing the issue and is converting at a relatively acceptable percentage, then Tom Thibodeau will ride him as long as possible. If not, he has no problem going elsewhere to get the desired results.
Miami is far and away the better team in this series. The only thing that can even the playing field for Chicago is if the Heat decide to cruise for extended stretches, and let the Bulls gain confidence while they’re still expending maximum energy.
The injuries to Deng and Hinrich are a much bigger deal in this series than they turned out to be for the Bulls against the Nets. Hinrich is excellent defensively, and Deng can legitimately impact the game on both ends of the floor. Without those two, there is much less room for error for the Bulls, especially opening on the road against the defending champs.
Expect Miami to impose its will early in this series to crush any hope the Bulls might have of stealing a game or two to try to make it interesting. Chicago will continue to play hard, but the team isn’t likely to have enough to beat the Heat more than once, and even that seems like a bit of a stretch.
Heat to sweep in four games.
Jul 1, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Not a good idea
Jul 1, 2015, 7:53 PM EDT
The Brad Stevens Effect
Jul 1, 2015, 7:40 PM EDT
Cleveland continues to soar over luxury-tax lines
Jul 1, 2015, 7:34 PM EDT
Would Paul Pierce agree to this if DeAndre Jordan were leaving town?
Jul 1, 2015, 7:07 PM EDT
Millsap had been flirting with Orlando but chose a shorter deal in Atlanta.
Jul 1, 2015, 7:04 PM EDT
Will Wright back up or replace Marc Gasol?
Jul 1, 2015, 6:43 PM EDT
Will that be enough to get Aldridge back to Portland?
Jul 1, 2015, 6:31 PM EDT
He is using this to leverage the Cavaliers, but the door is open.
Jul 1, 2015, 6:07 PM EDT
This is a contract the Thunder can live with or move, depending.
Jul 1, 2015, 4:51 PM EDT
Even if another team signs him to an offer sheet, the Warriors will just match it.
Jul 1, 2015, 4:47 PM EDT
Aldridge and Kobe Bryant didn’t quite click in their meeting.
Jul 1, 2015, 4:14 PM EDT
The Suns look like a team ready to run again.
Jul 1, 2015, 4:11 PM EDT
Boston gets nice value on a short-term frontcourt upgrade.
Jul 1, 2015, 3:09 PM EDT
The road to the NBA Finals out of the East — and maybe to the Larry O’Brien trophy itself — goes through Cleveland.
Jul 1, 2015, 2:55 PM EDT
Love returns, just as he maintained all season long.
Jul 1, 2015, 2:33 PM EDT
Butler will remain in Chicago as expected.
Jul 1, 2015, 2:28 PM EDT
The Pelicans were +10 per 48 minutes with an offensive rating of 111.9 (points per 100 possessions) when Anthony Davis and Ajinca were paired last season.
Jul 1, 2015, 1:23 PM EDT
New York is getting an audience with all the big names.
Jul 1, 2015, 12:29 PM EDT
Nice get for Toronto, and a Hawks team that won 60 games is going to look very different next season.
Report: Spurs reach deal to trade Tiago Splitter to Hawks, create cap space for LaMarcus Aldridge offer
Jul 1, 2015, 12:03 PM EDT
The Spurs can now offer Aldridge the chance to return to his native Texas and walk right onto a serious title contender.
- Reports: Paul Pierce agrees to three-year, $10 million contract with Los Angeles Clippers 13
- Report: LaMarcus Aldridge rules out Lakers in free agent decision 94
- Reports: Phoenix Suns sign Tyson Chandler, re-sign Brandon Knight, try to reshape roster 10
- Kevin Love will return to Cavaliers, contract is reportedly $110 million over five years 77
- Report: Spurs reach deal to trade Tiago Splitter to Hawks, create cap space for LaMarcus Aldridge offer 27
- Report: Heat, Goran Dragic agree to five-year deal worth $90 million 46
- Report: Paul Millsap had midnight meeting with Orlando, will decide between Magic and Hawks 17
- Report: Blazers, Damian Lillard nearing agreement on five-year max contract extension worth $120 million 17