Feb 26, 2013, 3:51 PM EDT
Maybe Kobe Bryant had reason to be confident. Entering play Tuesday night the Lakers are the nine seed in the West, 3 games back of 8 seed Houston and 3.5 back of the 7 seed Jazz. Lakers fans look at those numbers and think, “we can make that up.”
But it’s not going to be that easy.
The Rockets have won 6 of their last 10 (same as the Lakers, who have won 11 of their last 15) and are on pace to win 45 games. Same with the Jazz — a team that did not trade Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson at the deadline and is not a team that is going to fall off the cliff and come back to the Lakers (they have won 13 of their last 20). Los Angeles is going to have to earn it — they would need to go 17-7 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins.
But that is crude math.
Over at the invaluable Basketball-Reference they use a probability model that takes into account strength of schedule by playing out the remainder of the season 1,000 times. And still things don’t look all that good for the Lakers.
The Rockets have the easiest schedule in the NBA the rest of the way and so B-R says they should go 15-9 the rest of the way, or finish with 46 wins. That gives them a 96.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Jazz have a tougher schedule the rest of the way and they are more likely the team the Lakers should target. Still, the Jazz are a solid team that B-R has going 12-13 the rest of the way, or finishing with 43 wins.
So the Lakers would have to go 16-8 the rest of the way — win two thirds of their games — to best that mark. Can they? They have the fifth easiest schedule here on out.
Anything is possible but B-R says they would only make the playoffs 27.2 percent of the time In fact, it has them finishing at .500 — 41-41. A couple games short.
There are other models out there. As Ben Golliver noted at Sports Illustrated. ESPN’s projections (using now Memphis front office guy John Hollinger’s model) give the Lakers a 33.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s one in three.
It’s this simple — the Lakers have gone 11-5 in their last 16 and they are going to have to maintain close to that pace the rest of the way — with half their games against likely playoff teams and half on the road — to squeeze past the Jazz or Rockets.
It’s certainly not impossible. But I also wouldn’t go bet the rent money on it.
If I were a Jazz fan I wouldn’t breathe easy, but it is better to be the guy in front being chased than the team desperate to make up ground.
Jul 23, 2014, 2:56 PM EDT
Good pickup to add some depth at the point, something Dallas needed unless you’re expecting a monster bounce-back season for Raymond Felton.
Jul 23, 2014, 2:09 PM EDT
Is it better than the offer being put together by the Cavaliers?
Jul 23, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
He was given community services, which he can complete in Dallas where he was traded.
Jul 23, 2014, 12:55 PM EDT
Waiters will continue to be rumored to be available until he proves he can fit in with Kyrie Irving.
Jul 23, 2014, 12:15 PM EDT
Dallas was counting on him for bench depth and now will be looking to replace that help in a depleted market.
Jul 23, 2014, 11:37 AM EDT
Minnesota wants to dump some bad contracts as part of the deal, and Cleveland isn’t taking them.
LeBron James sent cupcakes to Akron neighbors to apologize for commotion caused by his free agent decision
Jul 23, 2014, 11:01 AM EDT
People descended upon LeBron’s neighborhood as rumors swirled.
Jul 23, 2014, 10:21 AM EDT
Stackhouse coached against Hollins at adidas Eurocamp in Italy this summer.
Jul 23, 2014, 9:47 AM EDT
LeBron has used more than just physical gifts to become all-time great NBA player
Jul 23, 2014, 9:16 AM EDT
Pacers center needs confidence more than a skyhook
Jul 23, 2014, 8:45 AM EDT
Russ Smith had a nice Summer League.
Jul 23, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Dallas, seeking third point guard, has already met with Mo Williams
Jul 23, 2014, 1:00 AM EDT
As Cavaliers position themselves for Kevin Love trade, now was the time to sign No. 33 pick
Jul 23, 2014, 12:00 AM EDT
Bzdelik, who most recently coached Wake Forest, previously served as Nuggets head coach
Jul 22, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Bieber wearing a Nets hat, so you know what that means…
Jul 22, 2014, 10:20 PM EDT
Donald’s lawyer says ruling might not come for years
Jul 22, 2014, 9:20 PM EDT
Devin Harris 2.0?
Jul 22, 2014, 8:20 PM EDT
Brooklyn reaches regular-season roster limit of 15 players
Jul 22, 2014, 7:22 PM EDT
Utah reportedly trades John Lucas III, Malcolm Thomas and Erik Murphy to Cleveland for Carrick Felix, second-round pick and $1 million
Jul 22, 2014, 6:53 PM EDT
Sterling will be removed as Clippers owner one way or another because he is toxic to the organization right now.
- Report: Jameer Nelson near $2.7 million deal to join Dallas Mavericks 0
- Report: Mavericks void Rashard Lewis’ contract after it’s discovered he needs knee surgery 5
- Report: Sixers, Nuggets or Celtics could become third team in Kevin Love trade to Cavaliers 35
- Five biggest surprises from Summer League 12
- Justin Bieber and Kevin Durant share brunch (photo) 22
- Clippers CEO: If Sterling remains owner then Doc Rivers, players, sponsors all ready to bolt 59
- Report: Cavaliers trying to acquire other players to put in Kevin Love trade 60
- Report: Bulls making push to trade for Kevin Love 73