Feb 26, 2013, 3:51 PM EST
Maybe Kobe Bryant had reason to be confident. Entering play Tuesday night the Lakers are the nine seed in the West, 3 games back of 8 seed Houston and 3.5 back of the 7 seed Jazz. Lakers fans look at those numbers and think, “we can make that up.”
But it’s not going to be that easy.
The Rockets have won 6 of their last 10 (same as the Lakers, who have won 11 of their last 15) and are on pace to win 45 games. Same with the Jazz — a team that did not trade Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson at the deadline and is not a team that is going to fall off the cliff and come back to the Lakers (they have won 13 of their last 20). Los Angeles is going to have to earn it — they would need to go 17-7 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins.
But that is crude math.
Over at the invaluable Basketball-Reference they use a probability model that takes into account strength of schedule by playing out the remainder of the season 1,000 times. And still things don’t look all that good for the Lakers.
The Rockets have the easiest schedule in the NBA the rest of the way and so B-R says they should go 15-9 the rest of the way, or finish with 46 wins. That gives them a 96.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Jazz have a tougher schedule the rest of the way and they are more likely the team the Lakers should target. Still, the Jazz are a solid team that B-R has going 12-13 the rest of the way, or finishing with 43 wins.
So the Lakers would have to go 16-8 the rest of the way — win two thirds of their games — to best that mark. Can they? They have the fifth easiest schedule here on out.
Anything is possible but B-R says they would only make the playoffs 27.2 percent of the time In fact, it has them finishing at .500 — 41-41. A couple games short.
There are other models out there. As Ben Golliver noted at Sports Illustrated. ESPN’s projections (using now Memphis front office guy John Hollinger’s model) give the Lakers a 33.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s one in three.
It’s this simple — the Lakers have gone 11-5 in their last 16 and they are going to have to maintain close to that pace the rest of the way — with half their games against likely playoff teams and half on the road — to squeeze past the Jazz or Rockets.
It’s certainly not impossible. But I also wouldn’t go bet the rent money on it.
If I were a Jazz fan I wouldn’t breathe easy, but it is better to be the guy in front being chased than the team desperate to make up ground.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:30 AM EST
Yes, it was Drake night in Toronto.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
Don’t worry. He still got off a jumper (which he missed)
Dec 18, 2014, 2:05 AM EST
James Harden and Dwyane Wade broke the 40 point barrier.
Dec 18, 2014, 1:31 AM EST
Another fine defensive moment from James Harden.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:54 AM EST
I can’t wait until the Western Conference playoffs.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:46 PM EST
He walked off under his own power but did not return.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:33 PM EST
Rockets, Kings and Knicks also reportedly inquiring about Celtics point guard
Dec 17, 2014, 10:25 PM EST
In related news, Hornets got a ton of public funding to upgrade arena
Dec 17, 2014, 9:30 PM EST
Rapper dubs Kyle Lowry ‘baby-faced assassin’
Dec 17, 2014, 8:35 PM EST
Trail Blazers guard would be a perfect fit in Cleveland
Dec 17, 2014, 7:39 PM EST
The offers are not going to be big, will Stan Van Gundy eventually give in and take one?
Dec 17, 2014, 6:18 PM EST
He is more likely to be moved than Rondo.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:31 PM EST
There are no good answers for the Bucks, or for other rookies to reward.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:06 PM EST
More serious talks doesn’t mean a deal is near.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:03 PM EST
The Kings roster is poorly suited right now for the style the owner wants to play.
Dec 17, 2014, 3:12 PM EST
Blazers fans will get to see more Chris Kaman.
Dec 17, 2014, 2:30 PM EST
Portland also reportedly tried to trade for Monroe before he signed the one-year qualifying offer to stay in Detroit.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:50 PM EST
Former Baylor University center was expected to be drafted, but was diagnosed with a disease that prematurely ended his chances of playing in the NBA.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:10 PM EST
Wade has a reputation of being a flopper, and appeared to exaggerate the contact from the official.
Dec 17, 2014, 12:30 PM EST
He pities ‘Melo because a real competitor is suffering through a lot of losing.
- PBT’s Wednesday Night NBA Winners/Losers: You will not question if Memphis is legit again 2
- Grizzlies top Spurs in triple overtime. Best game of the season. So far. 1
- Report: Mavericks and Celtics in ‘substantive discussion’ about Rajon Rondo trade 13
- Report: Celtics now more willing to trade Rajon Rondo 12
- Tyson Chandler says he feels sorry for Carmelo Anthony 19
- Kevin Durant on idea stars wouldn’t want to play with Kobe Bryant: ‘That’s bulls—‘ 48
- Former Warriors coach Mark Jackson meets with Kings GM, DeMarcus Cousins after Tuesday night’s game 25
- PBT’s Tuesday Night NBA Winners/Losers: Grizzlies grind ends Warriors streak 12