Feb 26, 2013, 3:51 PM EDT
Maybe Kobe Bryant had reason to be confident. Entering play Tuesday night the Lakers are the nine seed in the West, 3 games back of 8 seed Houston and 3.5 back of the 7 seed Jazz. Lakers fans look at those numbers and think, “we can make that up.”
But it’s not going to be that easy.
The Rockets have won 6 of their last 10 (same as the Lakers, who have won 11 of their last 15) and are on pace to win 45 games. Same with the Jazz — a team that did not trade Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson at the deadline and is not a team that is going to fall off the cliff and come back to the Lakers (they have won 13 of their last 20). Los Angeles is going to have to earn it — they would need to go 17-7 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins.
But that is crude math.
Over at the invaluable Basketball-Reference they use a probability model that takes into account strength of schedule by playing out the remainder of the season 1,000 times. And still things don’t look all that good for the Lakers.
The Rockets have the easiest schedule in the NBA the rest of the way and so B-R says they should go 15-9 the rest of the way, or finish with 46 wins. That gives them a 96.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Jazz have a tougher schedule the rest of the way and they are more likely the team the Lakers should target. Still, the Jazz are a solid team that B-R has going 12-13 the rest of the way, or finishing with 43 wins.
So the Lakers would have to go 16-8 the rest of the way — win two thirds of their games — to best that mark. Can they? They have the fifth easiest schedule here on out.
Anything is possible but B-R says they would only make the playoffs 27.2 percent of the time In fact, it has them finishing at .500 — 41-41. A couple games short.
There are other models out there. As Ben Golliver noted at Sports Illustrated. ESPN’s projections (using now Memphis front office guy John Hollinger’s model) give the Lakers a 33.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s one in three.
It’s this simple — the Lakers have gone 11-5 in their last 16 and they are going to have to maintain close to that pace the rest of the way — with half their games against likely playoff teams and half on the road — to squeeze past the Jazz or Rockets.
It’s certainly not impossible. But I also wouldn’t go bet the rent money on it.
If I were a Jazz fan I wouldn’t breathe easy, but it is better to be the guy in front being chased than the team desperate to make up ground.
Apr 1, 2015, 9:50 AM EDT
The Internet went nuts with memes of Paul falling down, and he got in on the fun himself.
Apr 1, 2015, 9:10 AM EDT
Apr 1, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
Hollins believes what he believes, evidence to the contrary be damned.
Apr 1, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
He was the reason the Clippers were close to the Warriors.
Apr 1, 2015, 1:34 AM EDT
We may have to watch the Nets in the playoffs. Lord help us all.
Apr 1, 2015, 12:50 AM EDT
Curry just dropped the best defensive point guard in the NBA.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
The deer is angrier
Mar 31, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Curry and Harden seem to be the frontrunners.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
“Not what I envisioned coming into this season. But I’m here and ready to conquer this journey.” —Kevin Durant
Mar 31, 2015, 7:59 PM EDT
Which is easier to insult, the Lakers or Justin Bieber?
Mar 31, 2015, 7:20 PM EDT
Harrell a potential lottery pick, Rozier a potential first rounder
Mar 31, 2015, 6:29 PM EDT
It’s impossible to ever really define and entire large city in one bit of writing. But this story comes as close to defining the intricate relationship of San Antonio with the Spurs as you are going to see.
Mar 31, 2015, 5:38 PM EDT
Redick, who once looked like a bust given oversized expectations, playing big role for surging Clippers
Mar 31, 2015, 4:56 PM EDT
This was fun frustration
Mar 31, 2015, 3:44 PM EDT
Knicks fans should be patient with this season. Optimistic… that’s a tough sell.
Mar 31, 2015, 2:59 PM EDT
LeBron names his three, and says after that he has ‘a bunch of teammates.’
Mar 31, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
It had been hoped that Beverley might be available to return later in the postseason.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
Mar 31, 2015, 12:40 PM EDT
We already knew Durant was done for the season, but the Thunder have updated his status.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Green is trying to downplay rivalry with Clippers coach, and is dealing with inflammation in his shins.
- Anthony Davis says James Harden should be MVP 17
- Stop judging J.J. Redick by his Duke days if you haven’t already 5
- Thunder say Kevin Durant underwent successful bone graft surgery, will return in 4-6 months 4
- Five Things We Learned in NBA Monday: DeMar DeRozan went Harden on Harden 12
- Derrick Rose returns to full-contact practice, Bulls return date still unknown 13
- Report: Sacramento consultant Chris Mullin to take St. John’s head coaching job 4
- PBT Extra: Taking twitter questions on Clippers, Michael Carter-Williams, more 7
- PBT’s NBA Power Rankings: Cream rising to top as playoffs near 28