Skip to content

What are the odds the Lakers catch the Jazz, make playoffs?

Feb 26, 2013, 3:51 PM EDT

Los Angeles Lakers v Denver Nuggets Getty Images

Maybe Kobe Bryant had reason to be confident. Entering play Tuesday night the Lakers are the nine seed in the West, 3 games back of 8 seed Houston and 3.5 back of the 7 seed Jazz. Lakers fans look at those numbers and think, “we can make that up.”

But it’s not going to be that easy.

The Rockets have won 6 of their last 10 (same as the Lakers, who have won 11 of their last 15) and are on pace to win 45 games. Same with the Jazz — a team that did not trade Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson at the deadline and is not a team that is going to fall off the cliff and come back to the Lakers (they have won 13 of their last 20). Los Angeles is going to have to earn it — they would need to go 17-7 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins.

But that is crude math.

Over at the invaluable Basketball-Reference they use a probability model that takes into account strength of schedule by playing out the remainder of the season 1,000 times. And still things don’t look all that good for the Lakers.

The Rockets have the easiest schedule in the NBA the rest of the way and so B-R says they should go 15-9 the rest of the way, or finish with 46 wins. That gives them a 96.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Jazz have a tougher schedule the rest of the way and they are more likely the team the Lakers should target. Still, the Jazz are a solid team that B-R has going 12-13 the rest of the way, or finishing with 43 wins.

So the Lakers would have to go 16-8 the rest of the way — win two thirds of their games — to best that mark. Can they? They have the fifth easiest schedule here on out.

Anything is possible but B-R says they would only make the playoffs 27.2 percent of the time In fact, it has them finishing at .500 — 41-41. A couple games short.

There are other models out there. As Ben Golliver noted at Sports Illustrated. ESPN’s projections (using now Memphis front office guy John Hollinger’s model) give the Lakers a 33.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s one in three.

It’s this simple — the Lakers have gone 11-5 in their last 16 and they are going to have to maintain close to that pace the rest of the way — with half their games against likely playoff teams and half on the road — to squeeze past the Jazz or Rockets.

It’s certainly not impossible. But I also wouldn’t go bet the rent money on it.

If I were a Jazz fan I wouldn’t breathe easy, but it is better to be the guy in front being chased than the team desperate to make up ground.

Latest Posts
  1. Doc Rivers says Paul Pierce chose Clippers over Celtics this summer

    Sep 3, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT

    Boston Celtics forward Paul Pierce reacts to a call by the officials in Boston Reuters

    He will be remembered as a Celtic, but Los Angeles is his hometown.

  2. It’s official: J.R. Smith re-signs with Cavaliers

    Sep 2, 2015, 10:30 PM EDT

    J.R. Smith J.R. Smith

    He’s making $1.5 million less than if he opted in this season, but he does have another year.

  3. Brad Stevens hints he will explore taller, more traditional lineups

    Sep 2, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT

    Brad Stevens AP

    With the additions to the Celtics’ roster, this is the smart play.

  4. Report: Free agent Glen Davis to have ankle surgery, out 2-3 months

    Sep 2, 2015, 8:31 PM EDT

    Glen Davis Glen Davis

    He could be back on the court around Thanksgiving, if a team picks him up.

  5. Dwight Howard tried to take loaded gun through airport security, will not face charges

    Sep 2, 2015, 6:31 PM EDT

    Houston Rockets v Golden State Warriors - Game Five Getty Images

    Don’t bring a loaded Glock to an airport, people. It’s pretty much common sense.

  6. Report: Clippers planning a mascot

    Sep 2, 2015, 4:13 PM EDT

    Los Angeles Clippers v Utah Jazz Getty Images

    It won’t be called Seagull Kneivel

  7. D-League Showcase will use net rating as tiebreaker

    Sep 2, 2015, 3:14 PM EDT

    2015 NBA D League Showcase Getty Images

    Advanced stats aren’t always the answer

  8. Shaq with the coolest fist bump ever (video)

    Sep 2, 2015, 2:17 PM EDT

    2015 NBA Finals - Game One Getty Images

    If only I could get people to run up to fist bump me while I walk…

  9. Report: 76ers interested in Kendall Marshall

    Sep 2, 2015, 12:23 PM EDT

    Philadelphia 76ers v Milwaukee Bucks Getty Images

    Point guard reportedly working out in Philadelphia

Top 10 NBA Player Searches
  1. D. Rose (2485)
  2. K. Irving (2173)
  3. A. Davis (1887)
  4. K. Bryant (1550)
  5. L. James (1542)
  1. A. Aminu (1432)
  2. K. Durant (1412)
  3. M. Leonard (1396)
  4. T. Thompson (1325)
  5. A. Jefferson (1219)