Feb 7, 2013, 11:45 AM EDT
Yesterday we brought you the report from Chris Sheridan that the San Antonio Spurs were way out in front of the pack in terms of trading for Al Jefferson of the Utah Jazz.
The move has some logic — Jefferson is in the last year of his deal, he’s a better player than Tiago Splitter (the guy reportedly part of the package headed to Salt Lake) and if the Spurs are serious about a title run this season Jefferson helps that cause.
But it’s probably not going to happen, says Dan McCarney at the San Antonio Express-News. And he’s got some really solid reasons why.
1. Jefferson is more expensive. While Splitter is set to enjoy a nice payday this summer, it’s doubtful he’ll approach the $14 million Jefferson is due this season. Considering he’s still only 28, Jefferson will likely be searching for something close to that on the open market after averaging at least 16 points and nine rebounds over the past seven seasons.
2. Jefferson is primarily a low-post scorer who doesn’t fit nearly as well as Splitter does with the Spurs’ pick-and-roll heavy offense. He’s effective, scoring 1.1 points per pick-and-roll play to rank 24th in the NBA per Synergy Sports. But he’s involved in such plays on only 8.4 percent of his possessions. Splitter, in contrast, ranks second with 1.39 points per play on 29.1 percent of his possessions.
3. Various other measures indicate Splitter is a better defensive player. The opportunity to play alongside Tim Duncan is a huge reason why. But not only does Jefferson yield more points per possession according to Synergy, the Jazz allow almost 10 points more per 100 possessions when he’s on the court.
4. Can you see the Spurs, who value consistency and continuity like no other franchise in the NBA, executing such a major trade in the midst of a campaign in which they’ve got the league’s best record with a home-heavy schedule over the second half?
To me, numbers one and four are key. Splitter is playing well, playing well within their system and he costs less now and going forward. Are the additional costs and risks really worth the talent upgrade from Splitter to Jefferson? I think if you answered yes to that question you haven’t watched a lot of Splitter this season, he’s playing well.
Besides, if the Spurs and Jazz do a deal it will come out of left field — these are the two tightest-lipped organizations in the game. There will not be leaks, it will just happen and we’ll find out when the league office does.
Still, expect Jefferson or Paul Millsap to get moved somewhere at the deadline.
Sep 19, 2014, 12:01 AM EDT
Saunders wants the rookie to earn it.
Sep 18, 2014, 10:46 PM EDT
Pietrus sat out all of last season.
Sep 18, 2014, 9:31 PM EDT
Looks like Bucks head coach Jason Kidd is serious about making Antetokounmpo into a point guard.
Sep 18, 2014, 8:16 PM EDT
This will take some getting used to.
Sep 18, 2014, 7:10 PM EDT
Sep 18, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Isn’t Harden the beard guru?
Sep 18, 2014, 5:51 PM EDT
I like the idea of calling him “scrappy feet” better.
Sep 18, 2014, 5:10 PM EDT
Chicago will likely start Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol
Sep 18, 2014, 4:25 PM EDT
Expect Rubio to be a restricted free agent next summer, and he may not enjoy that experience.
Sep 18, 2014, 3:44 PM EDT
Knicks star said nobody wants to play for Atlanta
Sep 18, 2014, 2:55 PM EDT
After a year at point guard, Oladipo should thrive for Magic this season
Sep 18, 2014, 2:20 PM EDT
Dirk’s not bad on guitar.
Sep 18, 2014, 1:40 PM EDT
Not an expected pairing, but they can relate
Sep 18, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
Spurs coach seeking sources of motivation so his team won’t repeat the letdown
Sep 18, 2014, 12:18 PM EDT
Team USA coach Mike Krzyzewski defends himself after Adrian Wojnarowski paints him as opportunistic recruiter
Sep 18, 2014, 11:39 AM EDT
How much longer will NBA keep pushing them?
Sep 18, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
After signing Glenn Robinson III, Minnesota has too many guaranteed contracts
Sep 18, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
Sep 18, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Last season, Celtics traded Crawford to Warriors, who were unsatisfied with his play
Sep 18, 2014, 8:30 AM EDT
Bulls center didn’t fare quite as well at White Sox game
- Kevin Durant has grown close with Karl Malone 13
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Philadelphia 76ers 3
- Steve Kerr said Danny Ferry made mistake but is a “man of high character” 23
- LeBron James on Kyrie Irving: “I believe Kyrie can be the best point guard in the league.” 20
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Boston Celtics 4
- Dwight Howard’s driver’s license in Florida suspended, he racked up 10 red light violations in Orlando 17
- Tim Duncan to appear in “The Punisher” comic book 6
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: New York Knicks 13