Feb 7, 2013, 11:45 AM EDT
Yesterday we brought you the report from Chris Sheridan that the San Antonio Spurs were way out in front of the pack in terms of trading for Al Jefferson of the Utah Jazz.
The move has some logic — Jefferson is in the last year of his deal, he’s a better player than Tiago Splitter (the guy reportedly part of the package headed to Salt Lake) and if the Spurs are serious about a title run this season Jefferson helps that cause.
But it’s probably not going to happen, says Dan McCarney at the San Antonio Express-News. And he’s got some really solid reasons why.
1. Jefferson is more expensive. While Splitter is set to enjoy a nice payday this summer, it’s doubtful he’ll approach the $14 million Jefferson is due this season. Considering he’s still only 28, Jefferson will likely be searching for something close to that on the open market after averaging at least 16 points and nine rebounds over the past seven seasons.
2. Jefferson is primarily a low-post scorer who doesn’t fit nearly as well as Splitter does with the Spurs’ pick-and-roll heavy offense. He’s effective, scoring 1.1 points per pick-and-roll play to rank 24th in the NBA per Synergy Sports. But he’s involved in such plays on only 8.4 percent of his possessions. Splitter, in contrast, ranks second with 1.39 points per play on 29.1 percent of his possessions.
3. Various other measures indicate Splitter is a better defensive player. The opportunity to play alongside Tim Duncan is a huge reason why. But not only does Jefferson yield more points per possession according to Synergy, the Jazz allow almost 10 points more per 100 possessions when he’s on the court.
4. Can you see the Spurs, who value consistency and continuity like no other franchise in the NBA, executing such a major trade in the midst of a campaign in which they’ve got the league’s best record with a home-heavy schedule over the second half?
To me, numbers one and four are key. Splitter is playing well, playing well within their system and he costs less now and going forward. Are the additional costs and risks really worth the talent upgrade from Splitter to Jefferson? I think if you answered yes to that question you haven’t watched a lot of Splitter this season, he’s playing well.
Besides, if the Spurs and Jazz do a deal it will come out of left field — these are the two tightest-lipped organizations in the game. There will not be leaks, it will just happen and we’ll find out when the league office does.
Still, expect Jefferson or Paul Millsap to get moved somewhere at the deadline.
Oct 1, 2014, 7:35 PM EDT
OK, what did I get wrong?
Oct 1, 2014, 6:40 PM EDT
Two young players trying to prove to new coaches they deserved minutes. This is a real setback for both.
Oct 1, 2014, 5:50 PM EDT
The show is on Disney XD. I suppose there are worse things your child could watch.
Man sues Madison Square Garden saying he was ejected from Knicks game for saying “Carmelo, you stink”
Oct 1, 2014, 5:01 PM EDT
A Madison Square Garden spokesman called the lawsuit “frivolous.”
Oct 1, 2014, 4:20 PM EDT
Dirk loves him some Hoff.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:40 PM EDT
Thing is, Rodman fit the triangle and what Jackson wants to do with a team. Smith…. not so much.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:01 PM EDT
Monroe had a busy offseason in terms of appearances in the NBA’s news cycle.
Oct 1, 2014, 2:21 PM EDT
LeBron is taking on a leadership role early in his second stint in Cleveland.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:41 PM EDT
Broken hand is supposed to sideline Rondo for 6-8 weeks.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
I list my personal picks for top five backcourts.
Oct 1, 2014, 12:21 PM EDT
Second round pick foregoing additional guaranteed dollars in order to bet on himself.
Oct 1, 2014, 11:39 AM EDT
Reminder not to believe everything you read, especially if it’s attributed to ‘a source.’
Oct 1, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Cousins was tied for the league lead with 16 last season.
Oct 1, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
The new-look Hornets, with Lance Stephenson in tow, are hoping to build on a playoff run and a promising young core.
Oct 1, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Kobe wants to shake the rust off before the games count for real later this month.
Oct 1, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Good of you to ask, but it’s not that simple.
Oct 1, 2014, 8:30 AM EDT
“I approach scoring like apple picking,” says Durant. “Keep the good ones and leave the rotten ones.”
Oct 1, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Jackson is out for the season due to injury, but will be getting a nice payday from Philadelphia nonetheless.
Oct 1, 2014, 12:06 AM EDT
New floor should be in place for the start of the 2014-15 season.
Sep 30, 2014, 10:51 PM EDT
Professional sports franchises are businesses above all else, and typically would rather avoid politics.
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