Skip to content

The Extra Pass: What can we expect of Derrick Rose in his return?

Feb 4, 2013, 9:05 AM EDT

Chicago Bulls' Derrick Rose looks on from the bench against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second half of their NBA basketball game in Chicago Reuters

The Extra Pass is a column that’s designed to give you a better look at a theme, team, player or scheme. Today, we look at what to expect from Derrick Rose when he returns.

This was supposed to be a lost season for the Chicago Bulls. Even the most ardent believers in Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system didn’t see this coming. The Bulls didn’t have depth, they didn’t have room for improvement, and most importantly, they didn’t have Derrick Rose.

But what do the Bulls have now? A 29-19 record, the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference, and a legitimate chance to catch the East’s leaders as the All-Star break approaches.

It was once easy to assume that Rose would return from his torn ACL to a floundering team just trying to stay alive. Instead, he’s coming back to a flourishing one.

That success has altered the expectations for Rose in his return. He is no longer required to be a savior, but rather a solid contributor. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Bulls actually have a decent shot at winning a title. That would sound preposterous a few months ago — and to some it still might — but according to Memphis Grizzlies front office employee and former ESPN writer John Hollinger’s playoff odds, the Bulls currently have a 16.5 percent chance at making the finals.

That may surprise some, but Chicago’s 4th ranked defense is suffocating. They have two scary wing defenders in Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler to throw at Miami, they have the passing big men to dice up a slow defense like New York, and you have to imagine they’d welcome a grind out battle on their terms against an Indiana or Brooklyn. Point being, we know this is a very capable team. They’ve proven that early on.

That said, what we don’t know about the Bulls looms large in the big picture. What can we expect of Derrick Rose when he makes his return?

The good and the bad

The hopeful few will quickly cite the name of Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings running back who won the league’s MVP award and put together his best season after an ACL injury. The line of thought isn’t hard to follow — Peterson is an athletic wonder that shines over his peers, and Rose is cut from the same cloth. Special athletes are more equipped to deal with this sort of thing, you would think.

Ignoring the apples and oranges that is football and basketball for a second, it’s important to remember that we can compare players physically, but we can’t do the same mentally. Although I wish I weren’t speaking from experience, the mental hurdles after an ACL injury are the most difficult to overcome. Trusting your knee not to give out when you euro step, not hesitating to take off in traffic for a floater — these are things that take different amounts of time for everyone. What Peterson did was as much a triumph over mind as it was body. That’s not to say Rose can’t do the same, but success following an ACL injury goes deeper than what you can do physically.

That said, we should deal in what we know and what we’ve seen in the past from NBA players coming back from ACL injuries. Last season, Kevin Pelton broke it down at Basketball Prospectus:

“Going back to the 1999-00 campaign and not including this year’s (2012) results, I found 40 ACL tears suffered by NBA players in games, practices, or even during summer workouts while under contract.

Of those 40, 22 involved players had usable pre- and post-injury numbers to compare. That’s a relatively small sample size, but such is the nature of rare injuries. On average, these players saw their per-minute winning percentage drop from .452 to .405, a 10.4 percent decline in their effectiveness. 15 of the 22 got worse.

A comparison of some of their key statistics before and after the injury:

Period     MPG    Usg    TS%   Reb%   Ast%   Stl%   Blk%   FTA%   Win%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Before    24.0   .206   .528   .113   .026   .013   .013   .119   .452
After     21.7   .194   .502   .114   .024   .013   .012   .114   .405

Pelton goes on to explain that the biggest differences in players that come back from ACL injuries are found in usage rates and shooting percentages. This is particularly noteworthy for Rose, a player who contributes primarily with his ability to score.

More recent examples of guards with ACL tears foretell a difficult path ahead for Rose. Although Iman Shumpert and Ricky Rubio have very different games than Rose, they have suffered massive drops in shooting percentages this season. In eight games so far, Shumpert’s True Shooting Percentage is down from 48.4 percent last year to 43.3 percent. In 19 games, Rubio’s percentage is down from 47.6 percent last year to 42.7 this year. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Eric Maynor is down from 46.6 percent to 40.3 percent as well.

Corey Brewer is probably the last perimeter player to come back strong from an ACL tear. Brewer averaged his highest points per game total of his career after his injury, and he saw a bump in his percentages as well.

But again, Rose is not Rubio, Shumpert, Maynor or Brewer. He’s a much more explosive scorer that uses almost a third of Chicago’s total possessions. He’s a star. History indicates he might not be that right away coming off his injury, but the Bulls might not need him to be, either.

Latest Posts
  1. Kobe Bryant destroys some young fans in China in one-on-one (VIDEO)

    Jul 31, 2014, 5:59 PM EDT

    Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant

    It’s the memory of a lifetime… even if you get embarrassed.

  2. Report: Lakers contact Robert Horry about becoming assistant coach

    Jul 31, 2014, 5:11 PM EDT

    Horry puts shot up Getty Images

    Mark Madsen and Paul Pressey also reportedly candidates for Byron Scott’s staff

  3. John Wall’s goal for Wizards next season: ‘The Finals’

    Jul 31, 2014, 3:50 PM EDT

    Miami Heat v Washington Wizards Getty Images

    Wall raising expectations after Wizards met last season’s playoff goal

  4. Gary Payton on becoming an assistant coach: “I’m getting interested now”

    Jul 31, 2014, 1:51 PM EDT

    Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony - Press Conference Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony - Press Conference

    As tight as he is with Kidd, do you really think Payton would choose Milwaukee over Los Angeles?

  5. Bucks sign Jerryd Bayless, Johnny O’Bryant

    Jul 31, 2014, 1:10 PM EDT

    Jerryd Bayless Jerryd Bayless

    Milwaukee, with Damien Inglis in limbo, now facing roster crunch

  6. Chandler Parsons, James Harden patch things up

    Jul 31, 2014, 12:33 PM EDT

    Chandler Parsons, James Harden Chandler Parsons, James Harden

    Like most “feuds,” once two rational people sit down and talk for a minute, everything dissipates.

  7. Kevin Durant says he’s deleting Twitter from his phone

    Jul 31, 2014, 11:55 AM EDT

    Kevin Durant Kevin Durant

    That means he’s signing with the Wizards, right?

  8. Report: Will Cherry to sign with Raptors

    Jul 31, 2014, 11:20 AM EDT

    Montana v Syracuse Getty Images

    Barring another move, Toronto down to one roster spot for Lucas Nogueira or DeAndre Daniels

  9. Anthony Davis steps into spotlight, is Team USA’s lynchpin

    Jul 31, 2014, 10:41 AM EDT

    2014 USA Basketball Practice Getty Images

    “We think he’s one of the top players in the league and we need for him to be that five that nobody has.” —Mike Krzyzewski on Anthony Davis

  10. Referee Violet Palmer comes out publicly as gay

    Jul 31, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT

    Sacramento Kings v Houston Rockets Getty Images

    Palmer to marry celebrity hair stylist Tanya Stine

  11. Kings sign undrafted Eric Moreland

    Jul 31, 2014, 9:22 AM EDT

    Tarik Black, Eric Moreland Tarik Black, Eric Moreland

    Former Oregon State standout impresses with shot-blocking ability

  12. Jeremy Lin goes Hollywood in new video

    Jul 31, 2014, 8:44 AM EDT

    Jeremy Lin Jeremy Lin

    Jeremy Lin in a full-blown dance number. You know you want to see that.

  13. Kyle Korver once traded for summer-league expenses and a copier

    Jul 31, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT

    Chicago Bulls v New Jersey Nets Chicago Bulls v New Jersey Nets

    Hawks forward, now trying out for Team USA World Cup team, has come a long way

  14. Chris Bosh makes it official, signs five-year, $118 million deal with Miami

    Jul 30, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT

    San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Game 6 Getty Images

    “His unique skill set makes him one of the best players in the game today.” —Pat Riley on Chris Bosh, who still is overpaid.

  15. Pat Riley says he didn’t think LeBron was leaving, Heat can turn around quickly

    Jul 30, 2014, 8:59 PM EDT

    Pat Riley Pat Riley

    Pat Riley got beat in free agency, and he doesn’t take losing well.

Featured video

Why can't Lakers have a player-coach?
Top 10 NBA Player Searches
  1. T. Warren (5147)
  2. L. James (4603)
  3. K. Love (4158)
  4. D. Rose (3818)
  5. C. Anthony (2861)
  1. K. Bryant (2802)
  2. R. Allen (2697)
  3. J. Nelson (2463)
  4. B. Griffin (2223)
  5. K. Durant (2069)