Feb 4, 2013, 9:05 AM EDT
The Extra Pass is a column that’s designed to give you a better look at a theme, team, player or scheme. Today, we look at what to expect from Derrick Rose when he returns.
This was supposed to be a lost season for the Chicago Bulls. Even the most ardent believers in Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system didn’t see this coming. The Bulls didn’t have depth, they didn’t have room for improvement, and most importantly, they didn’t have Derrick Rose.
But what do the Bulls have now? A 29-19 record, the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference, and a legitimate chance to catch the East’s leaders as the All-Star break approaches.
It was once easy to assume that Rose would return from his torn ACL to a floundering team just trying to stay alive. Instead, he’s coming back to a flourishing one.
That success has altered the expectations for Rose in his return. He is no longer required to be a savior, but rather a solid contributor. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Bulls actually have a decent shot at winning a title. That would sound preposterous a few months ago — and to some it still might — but according to Memphis Grizzlies front office employee and former ESPN writer John Hollinger’s playoff odds, the Bulls currently have a 16.5 percent chance at making the finals.
That may surprise some, but Chicago’s 4th ranked defense is suffocating. They have two scary wing defenders in Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler to throw at Miami, they have the passing big men to dice up a slow defense like New York, and you have to imagine they’d welcome a grind out battle on their terms against an Indiana or Brooklyn. Point being, we know this is a very capable team. They’ve proven that early on.
That said, what we don’t know about the Bulls looms large in the big picture. What can we expect of Derrick Rose when he makes his return?
The good and the bad
The hopeful few will quickly cite the name of Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings running back who won the league’s MVP award and put together his best season after an ACL injury. The line of thought isn’t hard to follow — Peterson is an athletic wonder that shines over his peers, and Rose is cut from the same cloth. Special athletes are more equipped to deal with this sort of thing, you would think.
Ignoring the apples and oranges that is football and basketball for a second, it’s important to remember that we can compare players physically, but we can’t do the same mentally. Although I wish I weren’t speaking from experience, the mental hurdles after an ACL injury are the most difficult to overcome. Trusting your knee not to give out when you euro step, not hesitating to take off in traffic for a floater — these are things that take different amounts of time for everyone. What Peterson did was as much a triumph over mind as it was body. That’s not to say Rose can’t do the same, but success following an ACL injury goes deeper than what you can do physically.
That said, we should deal in what we know and what we’ve seen in the past from NBA players coming back from ACL injuries. Last season, Kevin Pelton broke it down at Basketball Prospectus:
“Going back to the 1999-00 campaign and not including this year’s (2012) results, I found 40 ACL tears suffered by NBA players in games, practices, or even during summer workouts while under contract.
Of those 40, 22 involved players had usable pre- and post-injury numbers to compare. That’s a relatively small sample size, but such is the nature of rare injuries. On average, these players saw their per-minute winning percentage drop from .452 to .405, a 10.4 percent decline in their effectiveness. 15 of the 22 got worse.
A comparison of some of their key statistics before and after the injury:
Pelton goes on to explain that the biggest differences in players that come back from ACL injuries are found in usage rates and shooting percentages. This is particularly noteworthy for Rose, a player who contributes primarily with his ability to score.
More recent examples of guards with ACL tears foretell a difficult path ahead for Rose. Although Iman Shumpert and Ricky Rubio have very different games than Rose, they have suffered massive drops in shooting percentages this season. In eight games so far, Shumpert’s True Shooting Percentage is down from 48.4 percent last year to 43.3 percent. In 19 games, Rubio’s percentage is down from 47.6 percent last year to 42.7 this year. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Eric Maynor is down from 46.6 percent to 40.3 percent as well.
Corey Brewer is probably the last perimeter player to come back strong from an ACL tear. Brewer averaged his highest points per game total of his career after his injury, and he saw a bump in his percentages as well.
But again, Rose is not Rubio, Shumpert, Maynor or Brewer. He’s a much more explosive scorer that uses almost a third of Chicago’s total possessions. He’s a star. History indicates he might not be that right away coming off his injury, but the Bulls might not need him to be, either.
Mar 31, 2015, 3:44 PM EDT
Knicks fans should be patient with this season. Optimistic… that’s a tough sell.
Mar 31, 2015, 2:59 PM EDT
LeBron names his three, and says after that he has ‘a bunch of teammates.’
Mar 31, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
It had been hoped that Beverley might be available to return later in the postseason.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
Mar 31, 2015, 12:40 PM EDT
We already knew Durant was done for the season, but the Thunder have updated his status.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Green is trying to downplay rivalry with Clippers coach, and is dealing with inflammation in his shins.
Kyrie Irving on his relationship with LeBron James: ‘I don’t want to say it’s not been rocky at all’
Mar 31, 2015, 11:20 AM EDT
Things are clicking now in Cleveland, but it wasn’t that way at the beginning of the season.
Flip Saunders (sort of) makes up with Jazz broadcaster after ripping him for saying Timberwolves were tanking
Mar 31, 2015, 10:40 AM EDT
Interaction ended with a handshake, but it seemed evident Saunders remained displeased.
Mar 31, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
Hornets were fighting for a playoff spot, but their big free agent acquisition sat on the bench.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:20 AM EDT
Team has nothing left to play for, and Cousins has some nagging injuries.
Mar 31, 2015, 8:40 AM EDT
Great win — except for the fact that it may help cost the Lakers their draft pick this summer.
Mar 31, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
In a season where Kyle Korver’s three point shooting has at times seemed inhuman this may be his best shooting display.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:38 AM EDT
Also, is Kyle Korver human?
Mar 31, 2015, 12:30 AM EDT
He won’t replace Wesley Matthews, but he’s another body.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:45 PM EDT
A much-needed win for the Raptors.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Gobert wouldn’t let it stand and blocked him right after.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:15 PM EDT
It was a frightening display of strength.
Mar 30, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
A reminder of the Crash of old.
Mar 30, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
Capela is making a name for himself.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:56 PM EDT
Rose underwent knee surgery in February.
- Thunder say Kevin Durant underwent successful bone graft surgery, will return in 4-6 months 4
- Five Things We Learned in NBA Monday: DeMar DeRozan went Harden on Harden 11
- Derrick Rose returns to full-contact practice, Bulls return date still unknown 13
- Report: Sacramento consultant Chris Mullin to take St. John’s head coaching job 4
- PBT Extra: Taking twitter questions on Clippers, Michael Carter-Williams, more 7
- PBT’s NBA Power Rankings: Cream rising to top as playoffs near 27
- Report: Patrick Beverley out for rest of season, including playoffs 7
- Breaking down Western Conference playoff chase with two weeks left in season 9