Skip to content

The Extra Pass: Assessing Trade Value (Southwest Division)

Jan 23, 2013, 9:20 AM EDT

Memphis Grizzlies v Phoenix Suns Getty Images

The Extra Pass is a new daily column that’s designed to give you a better look at a theme, team, player or scheme. We’ve looked at the Northwest Division and Pacific Division, so let’s finish up the Western Conference with the Southwest Division.

***

San Antonio Spurs33-11, 1st in Southwest Division, $988,000 short of tax

Off-Limits: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard

Nothing new here. You can most likely add Tiago Splitter to this list as well — replacing his size and production with someone on a better contract is close to impossible, and the Spurs have other assets to dangle if they want to make a big move.

Most likely to be dealt: PF DeJuan Blair, ($1 million/1 year)

It’s no secret that the Spurs have been shopping DeJuan Blair for quite some time. With his contract expiring at the end of this season, they’ll be looking to get something — anything — in return. If the Spurs want to a make a move that nets them actual talent right now, Stephen Jackson‘s $10 million dollar expiring deal could provide cap relief for a team looking to trade a player on a longer contract.

Player to target: PF Gustavo Ayon, Orlando Magic

Apologies to Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw, but the Spurs could use some real size defensively. Ayon just feels like a Spurs player — he’s a great passer, an excellent cutter, and he understands spacing. He’s one of those guys we’ll really start to appreciate once he gets on a winning team.

Chances of a deal: Low

Blair would likely already be gone if he could be dealt for anything of value. As for the rest of the roster, San Antonio could be a sneaky player in free agency if Manu Ginobili comes back at a reasonable price this offseason. After making some shakeups last year, the Spurs seem likely to sit this deadline out and wait until the summer.

***

Memphis Grizzlies: 26-14, 2nd in Southwest Division, roughly $2 million under the tax

Off-Limits: No one

After gutting their bench by trading Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington, Josh Selby and a future first round pick just to get under the tax, the Grizzlies will almost definitely roll with their core for now. That said, Memphis is on an unsustainable path, and eventually they’ll need to trade Rudy Gay (or someone else) to get under the tax going forward. If someone bowls them over with an offer for any player on the roster, they’ll still listen.

Most likely to be dealt: SF Rudy Gay, ($16 million/3 years)

The Grizzlies will almost definitely stay put and ride out the rest of the season, but it’s basically only a matter of time before Gay gets shipped out. Now that they’re under the tax, selling whatever’s left of their bench (Bayless, Arthur) wouldn’t make any sense.

Player to target: The best the D-League has to offer

The Grizzlies will likely rely on D-League call-ups and minimum free agents from here on out, based mostly on the fact that they can’t add substantial salary if they want to stay under the tax.

Chances of a deal: Very Low

Unless they shockingly move a big piece, they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the tax.

***

Houston Rockets: 22-21, 3rd in the Southwest, $18 million short of tax

Off-Limits: James Harden, Chandler Parsons

Harden is already a star, and Parsons is set to make less than a million dollars over the next three seasons. Rockets GM Daryl Morey recognizes the value of that, and although teams may come knocking, he’s a cheap, productive building block going forward.

Most likely to be dealt: SF Carlos Delfino, ($3 million/2 years)

Crazy as it sounds, Delfino has the fourth largest contract on the team at just $3 million a year, which means if Houston wants to do anything big, they’ll likely need his deal to match salaries. Delfino is shooting nearly 39 percent from behind the arc this season so the Rockets likely don’t want to trade him, but their hand might be forced if they target a big piece.

Player to target: PF Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks

Is it worth forfeiting assets to woo a player for a short rental before they hit free agency? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s something the Rockets have to be considering with their hole at power forward and their struggles all year long on the defensive end. Pairing Smith’s athleticism at the 4 with Houston’s fast pace style seems like a match made in heaven, but it all depends on what Atlanta’s asking price is. That said, Atlanta should want to rebuild, and Houston has an enticing package of young frontcourt talent to offer.

Chances of a deal: High

Houston has to address their 19th ranked defense if they want to be taken seriously as a contender, and although waiting out Josh Smith or Dwight Howard to hit free agency this offseason may be the correct big move, there should be a variety of little deals available for Houston given their cap space. Just look how that worked out for Cleveland.

***

Dallas Mavericks18-24, 4th in Southwest Division, $10 million short of tax

Off-Limits: Dirk Nowitzki

Mark Cuban has said he won’t trade Nowitzki, and Dirk has a full no trade clause anyway. O.J. Mayo represents great value on his $4 million dollar deal, but he may be the only real attractive bait for opposing teams.

Most likely to be dealt: PG Darren Collison, ($2.3 million, 1 year)

The Mavericks and Rick Carlisle clearly aren’t big believers in Collison, as they regularly opt for Mike James down the stretch of games instead. Collison isn’t a starting point guard in the league, but he could serve as a capable backup somewhere.

Player to target: C DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings

The Kings may be having a blowout sale on their roster, and the Bank of Cuban just may want to purchase a few assets on the cheap. Add in that getting a great center is Cuban’s Moby Dick, and the Mavericks could make a very convincing offer for Cousins based around alleviation of long-term salaries. A Dirk-DeMarcus frontcourt pairing would truly be fascinating to watch.

Chances of a deal: Very High

The Mavericks want to get Dirk some help in his last few years, and being a known buyer when teams are in fear of the tax that’s looming should grease the wheels a little bit. It’s hard to imagine the Mavs not making a move at the deadline.

***

New Orleans Hornets: 14-27, Last in Southwest Division, $6 million short of the tax

Off-Limits: Anthony Davis

Davis is a given, but it’s probably safe to pencil in Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith for now as well. Eric Gordon is likely available, but if he can stay healthy and if the Hornets keep rolling, he’ll be much harder to have conversations about.

Most likely to be dealt: SF Al-Farouq Aminu, ($2.9 million, 1 year)

The Hornets oddly declined to pick up the option on Al-Farouq Aminu for next season, making him a free agent after this year. If a team were interested in taking a flier on the 22-year-old forward, it probably wouldn’t take much to pry him free. Although Aminu’s offensive game is still raw, he’s a terror in transition. The slow, grind-it-out pace of head coach Monty Williams doesn’t do him any favors. It would be fun to see a young, fast team like Charlotte take a chance on Aminu’s defensive potential.

Player to target: SG Anthony Morrow, Atlanta Hawks

How about an Aminu for Morrow swap? Aminu gets to go back home to Georgia where he’ll help fill Atlanta’s void at the 3. Anthony Morrow goes to New Orleans for a shot at more playing time (if he can’t beat out Austin Rivers and Roger Mason, he doesn’t deserve it) and the chance to prove he’s one of the most underutilized pure shooters in all of basketball. I’m a fan of surrounding Anthony Davis with as many shooters as humanly possible.

Chances of a deal: Low

It might just be a vibe, but I get the sense New Orleans is perfectly happy letting their core gel, regardless of what’s going on in the standings. Maybe that’s smart. Until Gordon, Davis and Anderson play with each other more, it’s hard to get a sense of what they’ll need next to them going forward.

***

We’ll hit the Eastern Conference next week, but check back tomorrow for analysis on how a few All-Stars have changed the pick-and-roll.

Latest Posts
  1. Report: Jazz to work out John Stockton’s son

    Sep 22, 2014, 6:44 PM EDT

    WCC Basketball Tournament - Championship - Brigham Young v Gonzaga Getty Images

    David Stockton, an undrafted free agent out of Gonzaga, also worked out for Thunder

  2. Bruce Bowen says blame for James Harden’s defense falls on McHale, Rockets

    Sep 22, 2014, 5:14 PM EDT

    Los Angeles Lakers v Houston Rockets Getty Images

    The Rockets’ defensive system is not the problem with James Harden.

  3. Jazz sign Dahntay Jones

    Sep 22, 2014, 4:41 PM EDT

    Los Angeles Lakers v Atlanta Hawks Getty Images

    Jones previously played for the Grizzlies, Kings, Nuggets, Pacers, Mavericks and Hawks

  4. Report: Darko Milicic leaving basketball, taking up kickboxing

    Sep 22, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT

    Minnesota Timberwovles 2010 NBA Europe LIve Minnesota Timberwovles 2010 NBA Europe LIve

    Former Pistons No. 2 draft pick putting some distance between himself and basketball

  5. Caldwell Jones dies at 64

    Sep 22, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT

    Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs

    Jones – who played for the 76ers, Rockets, Bulls (during Michael Jordan’s rookie season), Trail Blazers and Spurs – helped shape Tim Duncan’s career

  6. Tyson Chandler: ‘I’m going to make’ Mavericks defend

    Sep 22, 2014, 2:04 PM EDT

    Tyson Chandler, Ricky Rubio Tyson Chandler, Ricky Rubio

    Chandler: ‘We are going to be a great defensive team’

  7. NBA to review domestic violence policies in wake of NFL’s ugliness. It shouldn’t have taken that.

    Sep 22, 2014, 1:29 PM EDT

    Adam Silver Adam Silver

    There were multiple NBA players arrested on domestic abuse charges last year. The spotlight on those cases will be different now.

  8. Nuggets sign forward Marcus Williams

    Sep 22, 2014, 12:50 PM EDT

    Arizona Wildcats v North Carolina Tar Heels Getty Images

    This is the Marcus Williams who played at Arizona, not Connecticut

  9. Cavaliers lift ban on fan who ran onto court with LeBron James shirt

    Sep 22, 2014, 12:11 PM EDT

    A Cleveland Cavaliers fan interrupts play during their NBA basketball game against Miami Heat in Cleveland Reuters

    James Blair can watch LeBron in person in Cleveland again

  10. Blake Griffin said he knew Donald Sterling was racist, wasn’t really surprised by tape

    Sep 22, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT

    Blake Griffin GQ

    “The first thing I ever Googled about the man, the first thing that popped up was “racist.” So I was aware. I hate to say this, and it might sound ignorant, but I wasn’t surprised that all this came up.”—Blake Griffin on Donald Sterling

  11. ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Chicago Bulls

    Sep 22, 2014, 10:32 AM EDT

    Chicago Bulls v Washington Wizards - NBA Global Games Rio 2013 Getty Images

    A healthy D Rose could have the Bulls contending for a title.

  12. Miami to stick with small ball, including Danny Granger getting time at the four

    Sep 22, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT

    Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Clippers - Game Two Getty Images

    LeBron is gone but Miami is still playing small, pressuring the ball.

  13. Report: Cavaliers signing A.J. Price

    Sep 22, 2014, 9:05 AM EDT

    Washington Wizards v Cleveland Cavaliers Washington Wizards v Cleveland Cavaliers

    Price will provide point guard depth – at least through training camp

  14. Celtics GM Danny Ainge remains noncommittal on trading Rajon Rondo

    Sep 22, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT

    Oklahoma City Thunder v Boston Celtics Getty Images

    “The truthful answer is I really don’t know.” —Danny Ainge on potentially trading Rajon Rondo

  15. Bucks’ Larry Sanders to play with goggles next season

    Sep 22, 2014, 12:21 AM EDT

    Larry Sanders

    Remember Sanders suffered a serious eye injury last season.

  16. Golden State Warriors top 10 plays of 2014 season (VIDEO)

    Sep 21, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT

    Oklahoma City Thunder v Golden State Warriors Getty Images

    Way more Andre Iguodala than you might expect.

  17. Report: Celtics will complete Evan Turner signing before training camp begins

    Sep 21, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT

    Los Angeles Lakers v Indiana Pacers Getty Images

    Turner’s stock has dropped significantly since being traded from the Sixers to the Pacers in the middle of last season.

Featured video

What players stood out at World Cup?
Top 10 NBA Player Searches
  1. R. Rondo (2848)
  2. E. Bledsoe (2790)
  3. K. Bryant (2383)
  4. L. James (2321)
  5. D. Rose (2005)
  1. R. Allen (1871)
  2. N. Young (1761)
  3. B. Jennings (1609)
  4. J. Hickson (1607)
  5. K. Irving (1606)