Nov 16, 2012, 1:25 PM EST
The Knicks are 6-0, the last undefeated team in the NBA — and it’s not a fluke.
They are defending better than anyone in the league, giving up just 93.6 points per 100 possessions, via Hoopdata. (Anyone who says they just started defending this year wasn’t watching last year.) Their offense with Carmelo Anthony at the four is clicking, they are averaging 111.3 points per 100 possessions, again best in the NBA. Raymond Felton back at the point has steadied the decision making and added points.
If you questioned their competition, they just knocked off the Spurs in San Antonio. They are moving the ball on offense; their defensive rotations and hustle are sharp for this time of the season.
They are legitimate…
Well, let’s define legitimate. We are 7.3 percent of the way into their regular season. When we look at an East where the 76ers are without Andrew Bynum and the Celtics are struggling to find their groove, suddenly the idea of a top 3 or 4 seed and advancing out of the first round of the playoffs seem very legitimate.
But that’s not what Knicks fans are thinking… or at least starting to let themselves dream about.
And I’m far from sold on those big dreams. Because it’s a long season. Because of regression to the mean. And because there are some big hurdles ahead. (Oh, and because of the Miami Heat.)
First, the long season. Showing you can string together six good games — the first six, or six in January — only shows potential, not the ability to sustain a level of play. The Knicks will continue to be legit because they are defending, they are not going to fall off the map (baring major injury). But looking like a contender in November and in May are two very different things.
Second, regression to the mean — the Knicks are playing over their heads right now.
This season they are shooting 42.8 percent from three, a huge jump from the 33.6 percent of last season. J.R. Smith is shooting 73.7 percent from three through six games. That is not going to last. New York will be better from three than last year, but they are not going to keep hitting threes at this rate, and that is going to impact the rest of their offense when Jason Kidd is missing those threes in the fourth quarter, not burying them.
Generally, shots are just falling for the Knicks — they are hitting the highest percentage of spot-up jumpers in the league. They are getting 23.4 percent of their offense from spot-up shoots and they are hitting 45.1 percent of those shots (stats via Synergy Sports). That will slip.
Or, there is this note on twitter from Zach Lowe of Grantland: “Knicks have turned the ball over 9.9% of their possessions. Would be easily the lowest TO rate in league history. Uptick coming.”
Things are going to normalize for the Knicks.
And then they are going to have to integrate Amare Stoudemire back into the offense.
This really remains the question out there — the offense is clicking with Carmelo Anthony at the four, can you really start Stoudemire at the four and move Anthony back to the three again? Not and succeed at this pace. Right now the Knicks are getting 15.5 percent of their offense from isolation and they are shooting just 36.7 percent in isolation (13th in the NBA).
The Knicks are sharing the ball right now, they can’t go back to ‘Melo isolating on the wing 23 feet from the hoop. Not and win.
There’s a lot of potential with this Knicks team — Tyson Chandler has compared the makeup of this squad to the 2011 Dallas Mavericks title team. That’s lofty, and that team needed a Texas-sized load of things to go right for them to get the ring.
Things are not going to keep going this right for the Knicks, and when they don’t we’ll see what kind of team this really is.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:15 PM EST
Marc Gasol is a beast.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:38 PM EST
Who was that masked man?
Mar 4, 2015, 9:58 PM EST
Why didn’t Utah have Rudy Gobert protecting rim?
Mar 4, 2015, 9:35 PM EST
What penalty should Frazier receive?
Mar 4, 2015, 8:44 PM EST
Pacers are ganging up on Denver players
Mar 4, 2015, 7:53 PM EST
Sorry, Mark Cuban
Mar 4, 2015, 7:09 PM EST
He missed five games with a strained shoulder.
Mar 4, 2015, 6:14 PM EST
Don’t be shocked if the final price tag is close to $1 billion. Yes, for the Hawks.
Mar 4, 2015, 5:15 PM EST
Except you don’t really want a strong point guard in Phil Jackson’s triangle.
Mar 4, 2015, 4:30 PM EST
Some guys turn things around, bu Hairston has a lot of work to do.
Mar 4, 2015, 3:45 PM EST
Singing is awful, but the dancing is fantastic.
Mar 4, 2015, 2:58 PM EST
Allen isn’t officially retiring just yet, says he’ll reassess things in advance of next season.
Mar 4, 2015, 2:15 PM EST
Davis has missed the last six games with a shoulder injury.
Mar 4, 2015, 1:28 PM EST
He should put up numbers against the Sixers. Then again he puts up numbers on everyone.
Joakim Noah says non-violence video he put out helped him maintain composure after flagrant foul from Wizards’ Nene
Mar 4, 2015, 12:45 PM EST
Nene whacked Noah in the face, but Noah didn’t respond.
Mar 4, 2015, 12:00 PM EST
Chemistry issues in Memphis?
Mar 4, 2015, 11:20 AM EST
League is releasing officiating reports for all calls made in a close game’s final two minutes, and the results are fascinating.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:40 AM EST
Nifty but necessary move by LeBron to earn the easy two points.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:00 AM EST
Suns in another unnecessary disagreement with a former player.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:20 AM EST
Knicks starting five combined for just 24 points, and New York trailed by as many as 44 before this one was finished.
- George Karl: Knicks could use a strong point guard next to Carmelo Anthony 7
- Ray Allen announces he will not play this season 13
- Pelicans’ Anthony Davis a gametime decision Wednesday vs. Pistons 1
- Derek Fisher questions ‘character and integrity’ of players after Knicks lose to Kings by 38 points 29
- Five Things We Learned in NBA Tuesday: The Hawks clinched playoff spot in front of Josh Smith 6
- Nuggets need to decide direction, then hire coach 18
- Report: Russell Westbrook ‘likely’ to return to Thunder lineup Wednesday, will wear protective mask 13
- Nuggets have fired head coach Brian Shaw 30