Oct 29, 2012, 2:42 PM EDT
It’s the consensus of prognosticators (and me as well) — the NBA finals will be the Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers. Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James. You can already sense David Stern drooling like a Pavlovian dog thinking about the television ratings.
What teams could destroy David Stern’s dream?
There are four. While we could argue that each of these four need a little luck or for the Heat/Lakers to come back to them, we could say the same for the Heat and Lakers. Fact is you don’t win an NBA title without some breaks going your way.
So here are the four most likely teams to get in the way, two West and two East.
Oklahoma City Thunder. They remain the next best team in the West, even after the James Harden trade. (I think they take a step back after trading away a key playmaker, the Sixth Man of the Year and an Olympian and trying to fill his minutes with Kevin Martin. Long term with the picks and Jeremy Lamb we can debate the trade impacts, but the Thunder did not get instantly better Saturday night with this move.)
The Thunder have improved each year because their players have improved and gotten more experienced. That will happen again. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are going to take steps forward after their Olympic experience — and the Lakers will struggle to stop Durant, even with Dwight Howard in the paint. OKC gets Eric Maynor back and that gives them depth at the point guard spot and another playmaker. They have Kendrick Perkins to match up with Dwight Howard and Serge Ibaka to slow Pau Gasol. Westbrook can hamper Steve Nash.
The Thunder are not as good a team without Harden, but they are still very good and still match up with the Lakers as well as anyone.
Los Angeles Clippers. You can argue the San Antonio Spurs should fit here, but the last couple seasons showed me that while they are awesome in the regular season you can scheme for their weaknesses come the playoffs. The Clippers are a team on the rise. They have the single best pure point guard in the game in Chris Paul, and he is in a contract year so expect big things. They added some depth with Jamal Crawford, and while I’m not his biggest fan he is an upgrade over what they had. Eric Bledsoe is coming into his own off the bench. They have solid veterans like Caron Butler and — once he gets in shape — Lamar Odom. Oh, an they have the force of nature that is Blake Griffin. Paul is just figuring out how to use all those pieces.
The key for the Clippers in the playoffs is DeAndre Jordan. Last season he got benched for Reggie Evans when the going got tough. That’s not good. The Clippers need Jordan to take a huge step forward because they need his athleticism to combat Howard if they face the Lakers. If Jordan is in foul trouble or just plain old ineffective, the Lakers would run them over without slowing. But Jordan and his growth — scoring and putting pressure on Howard on both ends of the floor — changes the dynamic. He makes it possible. But it’s asking a lot of him to make that leap.
Boston Celtics. They came within a game of getting the Heat last season, and while they racked up a 3-2 lead in the series with Chris Bosh out it still shows they were close. Then Boston got better this summer — Jason Terry is better right now than Ray Allen. Not over their careers, maybe not now as a pure shooter, but Terry brings far more shot creation and versatility to the Celtics. Boston also gets Jeff Green back and he gives them real depth off the bench. Jared Sullinger should let Kevin Garnett rest more.
Boston must have a healthy and rested Garnett to have a shot at the Heat — he is the heart of their defense has to play as well or better than last year to have a shot. Rajon Rondo has to step up his game and get his squad more easy looks offensively against a swarming Heat defense. Boston cannot show their age. The good news for Celtics fans is Boston matches up well with Miami considering its defense, Paul Pierce and his ability to score, and now some punch off the bench. It’s not easy, but the Celtics have a puncher’s chance in a series with Miami.
Indiana Pacers. If you’re going to beat the Heat, the best way to do it is with size — Indiana has that in Roy Hibbert. One of the key turning points in the playoffs last season was when the Heat fell behind the Pacers because of the play of Hibbert and they had to adjust their style and step up their play. The Heat had that other gear.
To best the Heat Pacers need George Hill and Paul George to take steps forward with their game (both would be key in the finals, particularly on defense), David West to keep being himself, Granger to be steady in the big moments and Hibbert to become a dominating force. The Pacers lack the kind of superstar player the Heat have two (or three) of, but they have great balance, good depth and the size that could give the Heat fits. They just have to play nearly flawless basketball (and hope the Heat do not).
Jul 26, 2014, 12:01 AM EDT
Players asked Adam Silver for for an extended break when he first took office. He seems to be listening.
Jul 25, 2014, 10:46 PM EDT
Anthony reportedly strongly considered the Lakers too, but he says that wasn’t really the case.
Jul 25, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
The union for the players continues to struggle to get some competent leadership in place.
Jul 25, 2014, 8:45 PM EDT
Come on, son.
Jul 25, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT
Joakim Noah continues to be brutally honest when speaking about his team’s competition.
Jul 25, 2014, 6:46 PM EDT
The Andrew Wiggins spin and dunk is a thing of beauty.
Jul 25, 2014, 5:59 PM EDT
Casspi ends up back with the Kings on a minimum salary deal.
Jul 25, 2014, 5:14 PM EDT
He is a solid backup to have while Dennis Schroder develops.
Jul 25, 2014, 4:30 PM EDT
Magic rookie shows off handles
Jul 25, 2014, 3:44 PM EDT
Will Cherry was fun to watch at Las Vegas Summer League.
Jul 25, 2014, 3:05 PM EDT
George Karl is a better coach than Byron Scott
Jul 25, 2014, 2:22 PM EDT
Finally. Job has been vacant since April 30.
Jul 25, 2014, 1:44 PM EDT
Knicks’ record last season: 37-45
Melo’s contract value: $124,064,681
Jul 25, 2014, 1:11 PM EDT
Bulls also must make room for Nikola Mirotic in frontcourt
Jul 25, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Dirk Nowitzki presents a big strike zone.
Jul 25, 2014, 11:51 AM EDT
Former Bull and Piston sat out last season
Jul 25, 2014, 11:11 AM EDT
New TV deal expected to drastically increase revenue
Jul 25, 2014, 10:33 AM EDT
Not a Cleveland Cavaliers beat reporter. A LeBron James beat reporter.
Jul 25, 2014, 9:55 AM EDT
Rookie big man has been mentioned in Kevin Love trade rumors
Jul 25, 2014, 9:22 AM EDT
Timberwolves reportedly come to their senses, prefer Andrew Wiggins to Klay Thompson
- Report: NBA considering week-long break for All-Star Game next year 0
- Report: Knicks made (ridiculous) offer to trade for Kevin Love 31
- Report: Lakers finally offer coaching position to Byron Scott, deal expected soon 24
- Report: Cavaliers leading Kevin Love-trade sweepstakes 41
- Chris Paul on boycott if Sterling is still owner: “That’s something me and Doc are both talking about” 31
- Players union approves of Thunder’s Josh Huestis arrangement 16
- Cavaliers officially sign Andrew Wiggins, putting 30-day hold on him being traded 58
- Lakers deny rumor they are waiting around for Doc Rivers to be coach 61