Oct 29, 2012, 2:42 PM EDT
It’s the consensus of prognosticators (and me as well) — the NBA finals will be the Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers. Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James. You can already sense David Stern drooling like a Pavlovian dog thinking about the television ratings.
What teams could destroy David Stern’s dream?
There are four. While we could argue that each of these four need a little luck or for the Heat/Lakers to come back to them, we could say the same for the Heat and Lakers. Fact is you don’t win an NBA title without some breaks going your way.
So here are the four most likely teams to get in the way, two West and two East.
Oklahoma City Thunder. They remain the next best team in the West, even after the James Harden trade. (I think they take a step back after trading away a key playmaker, the Sixth Man of the Year and an Olympian and trying to fill his minutes with Kevin Martin. Long term with the picks and Jeremy Lamb we can debate the trade impacts, but the Thunder did not get instantly better Saturday night with this move.)
The Thunder have improved each year because their players have improved and gotten more experienced. That will happen again. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are going to take steps forward after their Olympic experience — and the Lakers will struggle to stop Durant, even with Dwight Howard in the paint. OKC gets Eric Maynor back and that gives them depth at the point guard spot and another playmaker. They have Kendrick Perkins to match up with Dwight Howard and Serge Ibaka to slow Pau Gasol. Westbrook can hamper Steve Nash.
The Thunder are not as good a team without Harden, but they are still very good and still match up with the Lakers as well as anyone.
Los Angeles Clippers. You can argue the San Antonio Spurs should fit here, but the last couple seasons showed me that while they are awesome in the regular season you can scheme for their weaknesses come the playoffs. The Clippers are a team on the rise. They have the single best pure point guard in the game in Chris Paul, and he is in a contract year so expect big things. They added some depth with Jamal Crawford, and while I’m not his biggest fan he is an upgrade over what they had. Eric Bledsoe is coming into his own off the bench. They have solid veterans like Caron Butler and — once he gets in shape — Lamar Odom. Oh, an they have the force of nature that is Blake Griffin. Paul is just figuring out how to use all those pieces.
The key for the Clippers in the playoffs is DeAndre Jordan. Last season he got benched for Reggie Evans when the going got tough. That’s not good. The Clippers need Jordan to take a huge step forward because they need his athleticism to combat Howard if they face the Lakers. If Jordan is in foul trouble or just plain old ineffective, the Lakers would run them over without slowing. But Jordan and his growth — scoring and putting pressure on Howard on both ends of the floor — changes the dynamic. He makes it possible. But it’s asking a lot of him to make that leap.
Boston Celtics. They came within a game of getting the Heat last season, and while they racked up a 3-2 lead in the series with Chris Bosh out it still shows they were close. Then Boston got better this summer — Jason Terry is better right now than Ray Allen. Not over their careers, maybe not now as a pure shooter, but Terry brings far more shot creation and versatility to the Celtics. Boston also gets Jeff Green back and he gives them real depth off the bench. Jared Sullinger should let Kevin Garnett rest more.
Boston must have a healthy and rested Garnett to have a shot at the Heat — he is the heart of their defense has to play as well or better than last year to have a shot. Rajon Rondo has to step up his game and get his squad more easy looks offensively against a swarming Heat defense. Boston cannot show their age. The good news for Celtics fans is Boston matches up well with Miami considering its defense, Paul Pierce and his ability to score, and now some punch off the bench. It’s not easy, but the Celtics have a puncher’s chance in a series with Miami.
Indiana Pacers. If you’re going to beat the Heat, the best way to do it is with size — Indiana has that in Roy Hibbert. One of the key turning points in the playoffs last season was when the Heat fell behind the Pacers because of the play of Hibbert and they had to adjust their style and step up their play. The Heat had that other gear.
To best the Heat Pacers need George Hill and Paul George to take steps forward with their game (both would be key in the finals, particularly on defense), David West to keep being himself, Granger to be steady in the big moments and Hibbert to become a dominating force. The Pacers lack the kind of superstar player the Heat have two (or three) of, but they have great balance, good depth and the size that could give the Heat fits. They just have to play nearly flawless basketball (and hope the Heat do not).
Jul 30, 2014, 8:59 PM EDT
Pat Riley got beat in free agency, and he doesn’t take losing well.
Jul 30, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Scott, not Mike Brown, would have followed Phil Jackson
Jul 30, 2014, 6:59 PM EDT
“He’s playing out of his mind. He’s being Derrick Rose.” —Anthony Davis on Rose.
Jul 30, 2014, 6:05 PM EDT
NBA reportedly wanted Bavetta to retire four years ago
Jul 30, 2014, 5:17 PM EDT
The elicits a shrug of the shoulders. Not much else.
Jul 30, 2014, 4:29 PM EDT
Thunder star texted Davis after winning the award last season: ‘You on your way to get it’
Tony Parker says skipping FIBA World Championships this summer was a way for him to ‘give back to the Spurs’
Jul 30, 2014, 3:41 PM EDT
Parker has played 91 extra games since his last summer break three seasons ago.
Jul 30, 2014, 2:59 PM EDT
“Guys that don’t have a reputation for playing hard defense are picking up full court.” —Damian Lillard on the level of play at Team USA training camp.
Jul 30, 2014, 2:19 PM EDT
Dallas originally signed Lewis, but voided his contract once it was discovered he would require knee surgery.
Jul 30, 2014, 1:34 PM EDT
Cleveland, Chicago, Indiana, Miami, Toronto and Washington all simply shake their heads.
Jul 30, 2014, 12:47 PM EDT
World Peace hasn’t drawn legitimate interest from NBA teams, so he’s considering playing overseas.
Jul 30, 2014, 12:01 PM EDT
Silly idea anyway.
Report: Anthony Bennett pulled from pro-am by agent, possibly due to his inclusion in Kevin Love trade talks
Jul 30, 2014, 11:14 AM EDT
Just like Love, Bennett is not going to be playing in any games this summer until a deal is done.
Jul 30, 2014, 10:32 AM EDT
Sixers put a multi-year plan together based on current rules, which would be adversely affected with a quick change to the system.
Jul 30, 2014, 9:55 AM EDT
This was 100 percent guaranteed.
Jul 30, 2014, 9:18 AM EDT
Hayward set to earn $62,965,420 over next four years
Jul 30, 2014, 8:40 AM EDT
“Everyone talks about match-ups (with big teams such as Spain), people have to match-up against us, too.” — USA Basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski
Jul 30, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
LeBron still not as popular as prior to The Decision, though. It’s only a matter of time until he is.
Jul 30, 2014, 1:30 AM EDT
Cavaliers guard says initial response stemmed from his straightforward approach, confidence
Jul 30, 2014, 12:30 AM EDT
Collective Bargaining Agreement limits offseason charity games to United States and Canada
- Pat Riley says he didn’t think LeBron was leaving, Heat can turn around quickly 0
- Coach K on Rose: “Derrick’s played great, not good, and hasn’t held anything back” 9
- Report: Anthony Bennett pulled from pro-am by agent, possibly due to his inclusion in Kevin Love trade talks 41
- Report: Sixers fighting against immediate changes to NBA Draft Lottery system 55
- Team USA going small ball, but how many bigs do they keep on the bench? 4
- Report: LeBron James more popular than he ever was with the Heat 14
- Durant says 2014 USA team better than 2010 version that won gold 6
- Kevin Durant knows you’re talking about his free agency but isn’t giving many clues. He liked what LeBron did. 17