Oct 29, 2012, 2:42 PM EDT
It’s the consensus of prognosticators (and me as well) — the NBA finals will be the Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers. Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James. You can already sense David Stern drooling like a Pavlovian dog thinking about the television ratings.
What teams could destroy David Stern’s dream?
There are four. While we could argue that each of these four need a little luck or for the Heat/Lakers to come back to them, we could say the same for the Heat and Lakers. Fact is you don’t win an NBA title without some breaks going your way.
So here are the four most likely teams to get in the way, two West and two East.
Oklahoma City Thunder. They remain the next best team in the West, even after the James Harden trade. (I think they take a step back after trading away a key playmaker, the Sixth Man of the Year and an Olympian and trying to fill his minutes with Kevin Martin. Long term with the picks and Jeremy Lamb we can debate the trade impacts, but the Thunder did not get instantly better Saturday night with this move.)
The Thunder have improved each year because their players have improved and gotten more experienced. That will happen again. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are going to take steps forward after their Olympic experience — and the Lakers will struggle to stop Durant, even with Dwight Howard in the paint. OKC gets Eric Maynor back and that gives them depth at the point guard spot and another playmaker. They have Kendrick Perkins to match up with Dwight Howard and Serge Ibaka to slow Pau Gasol. Westbrook can hamper Steve Nash.
The Thunder are not as good a team without Harden, but they are still very good and still match up with the Lakers as well as anyone.
Los Angeles Clippers. You can argue the San Antonio Spurs should fit here, but the last couple seasons showed me that while they are awesome in the regular season you can scheme for their weaknesses come the playoffs. The Clippers are a team on the rise. They have the single best pure point guard in the game in Chris Paul, and he is in a contract year so expect big things. They added some depth with Jamal Crawford, and while I’m not his biggest fan he is an upgrade over what they had. Eric Bledsoe is coming into his own off the bench. They have solid veterans like Caron Butler and — once he gets in shape — Lamar Odom. Oh, an they have the force of nature that is Blake Griffin. Paul is just figuring out how to use all those pieces.
The key for the Clippers in the playoffs is DeAndre Jordan. Last season he got benched for Reggie Evans when the going got tough. That’s not good. The Clippers need Jordan to take a huge step forward because they need his athleticism to combat Howard if they face the Lakers. If Jordan is in foul trouble or just plain old ineffective, the Lakers would run them over without slowing. But Jordan and his growth — scoring and putting pressure on Howard on both ends of the floor — changes the dynamic. He makes it possible. But it’s asking a lot of him to make that leap.
Boston Celtics. They came within a game of getting the Heat last season, and while they racked up a 3-2 lead in the series with Chris Bosh out it still shows they were close. Then Boston got better this summer — Jason Terry is better right now than Ray Allen. Not over their careers, maybe not now as a pure shooter, but Terry brings far more shot creation and versatility to the Celtics. Boston also gets Jeff Green back and he gives them real depth off the bench. Jared Sullinger should let Kevin Garnett rest more.
Boston must have a healthy and rested Garnett to have a shot at the Heat — he is the heart of their defense has to play as well or better than last year to have a shot. Rajon Rondo has to step up his game and get his squad more easy looks offensively against a swarming Heat defense. Boston cannot show their age. The good news for Celtics fans is Boston matches up well with Miami considering its defense, Paul Pierce and his ability to score, and now some punch off the bench. It’s not easy, but the Celtics have a puncher’s chance in a series with Miami.
Indiana Pacers. If you’re going to beat the Heat, the best way to do it is with size — Indiana has that in Roy Hibbert. One of the key turning points in the playoffs last season was when the Heat fell behind the Pacers because of the play of Hibbert and they had to adjust their style and step up their play. The Heat had that other gear.
To best the Heat Pacers need George Hill and Paul George to take steps forward with their game (both would be key in the finals, particularly on defense), David West to keep being himself, Granger to be steady in the big moments and Hibbert to become a dominating force. The Pacers lack the kind of superstar player the Heat have two (or three) of, but they have great balance, good depth and the size that could give the Heat fits. They just have to play nearly flawless basketball (and hope the Heat do not).
Oct 23, 2014, 9:40 AM EDT
No. 6 pick in 2013 NBA draft readying to play for 76ers
Oct 23, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Bulls center had knee surgery this offseason
Oct 23, 2014, 8:30 AM EDT
Cavaliers show up Grizzlies
Oct 23, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Heat coach attempting to win first playoff series without LeBron James
Oct 23, 2014, 2:22 AM EDT
The Knicks still run some isolation.
Kobe Bryant on Julius Randle playing with Kobe, for Byron Scott: ‘If you f— this up, you’re a really big idiot’
Oct 23, 2014, 12:15 AM EDT
Lakers star likes dropping I bombs
Oct 22, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
No charges have been filed.
Oct 22, 2014, 10:20 PM EDT
J Crossover up close and personal.
Oct 22, 2014, 9:20 PM EDT
Rockets downgraded Parsons, but he’ll have a chance to reach new heights with Mavericks
Oct 22, 2014, 8:20 PM EDT
Lakers forward also says he’s quit drinking alcohol
Oct 22, 2014, 7:20 PM EDT
Stephen Curry takes advantage
Oct 22, 2014, 6:21 PM EDT
Phil Jackson has spoken to the media more than the previous three GMs ever did, I think.
Oct 22, 2014, 5:16 PM EDT
“ We still have roughly a third of our teams that are not profitable under the current system, despite revenue sharing.” —Adam Silver
Oct 22, 2014, 4:30 PM EDT
Oddest vote of the survey — 10.7 percent of GMs thought Chicago had a better offseason than Cleveland.
Jeff Van Gundy: Confusing a system (like the Triangle Offense) with reason for success is ‘a huge mistake’
Oct 22, 2014, 3:42 PM EDT
Van Gundy says players are responsible for wins and losses, not systems — like the one Phil Jackson is bringing to the Knicks this season.
Oct 22, 2014, 2:58 PM EDT
This could be the year a big man breaks the string of guards winning the award.
Oct 22, 2014, 2:13 PM EDT
Pierce played 15 years for the Celtics, but is now with his second new team in as many seasons with the Wizards.
Oct 22, 2014, 1:29 PM EDT
Boston is hoping to get an asset in return for Bynum instead of simply waiving him.
Oct 22, 2014, 12:48 PM EDT
Oct 22, 2014, 12:04 PM EDT
There are plenty more interesting tidbits in the league’s annual survey.
- Five top candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year 18
- NBA GMs surveyed predict LeBron will win MVP, Spurs will repeat as champions 27
- Owners vote down NBA Draft lottery reform, system to stay same for this season 45
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 preview: Houston Rockets 24
- Kobe Bryant responds to ESPN article with basically a shrug (VIDEO) 20
- Paul George refutes report he didn’t want to play with Kobe Bryant: ‘Media reaching again’ 22
- PBT Extra preview: Lakers, Celtics big name teams headed to lottery 12
- Could lottery reform be bad for small market teams? Sam Presti argues yes. 23