Comments on: Josh Smith says no more threes, call him “mid-range shawty”

By: nbascreed

nbascreed — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 11:15:15 +0000

1. First we need to define long two, mine is 18 inches inside the NBA and 12 for everything else. I don’t know what the advanced stats call it, but colloquial it is really a teaching term coaches use to help young shooters understand how to get a natural feel for where they are on the court and ensure that they aren’t taking 3′s with their feet on the line. Like I said the advanced stats guys may have changed the definition to fit their analysis but a long two has always been on the line or right inside the line. A pump fake and one strong dribble inside the line DO NOT constitute a long two, in my basketball playing opinion. Not sure I’ll ever let an advanced statistician talk me off that.

2. “The further you are from the basket the less likely you are to make a shot” I cede this point, but you CAN’T use this to buttress your argument that the long two is the worse shot in basketball b/c the long two is closer than a 3 so using this logic alone the long two is a more “makeable” shot and thus a better shot than a 3.

3. In order to apply the difference in point argument that you employ you have to use real stats. You say it’s logic backed by simple stats but then use clearly made up numbers of 37% from long two and 34% from three. This argument makes a ton of sense IF your percentages are right but I don’t think the spread b/t long two’s and threes is that close. I absolutely love spreadsheets and analysis so PLEASE point me in the direction of the data and I can run the numbers on this.

4. What about the fadeaway 15 footer that any credible wing has in their arsenal shot, that’s got to be lower percentage than a straight up and down long two, no? What about the “deep three” that both Carmelo and KD are well known for and even Kobe in his younger days. Is that not a worse shot than a long two? I think 30 of 30 coaches would say yes, regardless of who is stroking the pill. Again, not sure how robust these advanced stats sites are, but I’d love to have a look at the data.

In summary the term “worst shot in basketball” is colloquial and is used as a TEACHING mechanism for young shooters and wing players to help them understand court spacing and how to position themselves behind the line w/o having to constantly look down. I really hate when I hear fans actually applying that as a technical term to the game, b/c it clearly is NOT true (at least until I analyze the data vis-a-vis point 2).

Again the only thing that makes your argument valid is actually running the numbers and finding they result in a spread that makes the 1 point difference in conversion worth taking a step back.

By: Kurt Helin

Kurt Helin — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 20:33:06 +0000

Simple logic backed by stats (and it is a thought growing in NBA circles as more advanced statistics come in): The farther you are away from the basket the less likely you are to make a shot, so you are less likely to make an 20 footer than an 8 footer. That is true for Carmelo, Smith and pretty much everyone. You want to take the shots you are more likely to make. Also, if you take a deep 2 and hit, say, 37 percent of them but can step back three feet and hit 34 percent of your threes, that is a better choice because you get rewarded with more points for that percentage of threes.

There are only a couple guys in the league who hit long twos at a rate that makes it work, guys like Dirk Nowitzki. But they are the exception to the rule.

By: nbascreed

nbascreed — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 19:30:49 +0000

Kurt can you please tell me how the long two is the worst shot in basketball? I’d like to hear YOUR logic assuming you’re not just repeating what you’ve heard someone else say who also heard someone else say it who also heard someone else say it.

By: superseahawk

superseahawk — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 11:19:43 +0000

It’s weird that he doesn’t make those outside shots, he’s got a beautiful looking jumper.

By: moseskkim

moseskkim — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 08:41:51 +0000

It’s tough for smoove if he catches it just inside the 3. Teams will dare him to shoot it right there and so the temptation will be there all season. You’ll have to post him up a whole lot of u want to get his midrange shots down.