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Ginobili says Argentina has “5-10 percent chance” of beating USA

Aug 10, 2012, 10:38 AM EDT

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It’s going to take an almost perfect game from Argentina — and a little help from Team USA — for the Argentines to pull the upset Friday and advance to the gold medal game.

And they know it.

Look at what Argentina’s Manu Ginobili said, via Reuters.

“The odds are against us. We have a 10 percent or even a five percent chance of winning but we are going to fight for this,” San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said after driving his team past Brazil and into the semi-finals.

Well.

Argentina did push the United States in a tune up game for the Olympics (86-80) and they play a grinding style. They have some skill with Ginobili, Luis Scola, Carlos Delfino and others. With this being the third meeting between the teams in three weeks, Argentina knows what it has to do.

“We are going to try and turn the ball over less. Make a few shots in the second half and don’t let them run. Then if they get inspired and LeBron (James) or Kobe Bryant or someone get hot and hit 20 threes like they did in the last game, then there’s nothing you can do.”

Argentina needs to play its best game. It needs Team USA to help out by being cold from beyond the arc. And the chances of that are pretty slim.

Probably between five and 10 percent.

  1. Chris Fiorentino - Aug 10, 2012 at 11:11 AM

    I think the odds are closer to less than 1%. There’s too much talent on USA. If two or three guys are off, they can load up with guys who are on. You would need 8 or 9 guys to be off, and considering they are all all-star level talent, that’s not happening. Oh, and they would also have to decide not to play defense too. Not. Happening.

    • theawesomersfranchise - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:11 PM

      You want to give me odds that Argentina couldn’t win 2 games out of 100? Because I’d be all over that fantasy scenario and put you in the poor house if you let me.

      • theawesomersfranchise - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:12 PM

        5% sounds about right, at best 7%

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:18 PM

        No, but I would give you 99-1 odds on $1,000 on this one game if you are interested. My $99,000 against your $1,000.

      • theawesomersfranchise - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:19 PM

        Apples and oranges come to mind

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:38 PM

        I believe you are the one comparing apples to oranges my friend. Just because I say for THIS GAME, Argentina has less than a 1% chance doesn’t mean that I think the USA would win 99 out of 100 games. There are other factors, like guys getting tired…guys getting hurt…guys not caring after the 70th…80th…90th victory.

        My statement stands on its own…for this game, the USA has less than 1% chance of losing. If anyone knows where there are odds for these games, I’d love to see them. They don’t allow betting on Olympics in Vegas so I didn’t see anything when I was out there last week.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:45 PM

        OK, so I found some odds at oddsshark and here they are…

        To win the Gold…

        USA 1/33
        Spain 16/1
        Russia 25/1
        Argentina 40/1

        So basically, the odds are 3% that the USA will NOT win the gold. That means beating Argentina AND the Spain/Russia winner. If you think that Argentina has a 5-10% chance to win this game, then you are at the very leat doubling, and probably closer to giving them 4-5 times the chance they have according to the wise guys. Yeah, they are trying to get money on both sides I know how it works. But for the most part, if Argentina realistically had a 5-10& chance to win this game, they would NOT have 40/1 odds.

        Game Point spreads…

        USA -26 Argentina. 26 point favorites and you are saying the underdog has a 5-10% chance to win? LOLZ. I feel more confident than ever in my 1% chance estimation now.

      • theawesomersfranchise - Aug 10, 2012 at 1:28 PM

        You sure did type a lot of stuff about apples when I commented on oranges

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 10, 2012 at 1:35 PM

        Oh, now I get it. I comment on something, you totally change what I commented on and when I come back with a proposition that contains what I actually began the conversation with, you say “Apples and Oranges”.

        Next time, start your own thread instead of replying to mine with Oranges.

      • theawesomersfranchise - Aug 10, 2012 at 1:45 PM

        Oh, Now I get it, you do not understand 1% = 1/100.

    • skids003 - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:57 PM

      Guys, if Kobe has one of his typical off shooting nights and Coach K don’t get him out of there quick, it could be very close.

      • Chris Fiorentino - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:59 PM

        if…but…if…but…yet it always ends with “it could be close”

        “If the entire starting five of the USA gets food poisoning, it could be very close.”

  2. rtfinch - Aug 10, 2012 at 11:19 AM

    Or a cold shooting night and dont commit turnovers.

  3. LAWSOFBHP - Aug 10, 2012 at 12:38 PM

    Reblogged this on Laws of BHP #nofilter and commented:
    Manu being a little too brutally honest? Giving his squad a 5-10% chance to beat Lebron & Co. That’s probably accurate, barring Melo goes completely crazy again and hits 10 treys, but c’mon Manu! #Ginobili #Lefty

  4. therealgts - Aug 10, 2012 at 3:50 PM

    You’re wasting everyone’s life gamer. It’s a 1% chance every time they play which doesn’t translate to 1 in 100 overall. Do u even understand how betting odds work? Chris you are a far more patient man than I am. Good posts

  5. connaniii - Aug 12, 2012 at 8:27 PM

    All I can say about Ginobilli is that he´s a realist!

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