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The Inbounds: Daryl Morey and the point of no return

Jul 20, 2012, 1:00 PM EST

Daryl Morey AP

Welcome to The Inbounds, touching on a big idea of the day. It could be news, it could be history, it could be a tangent, it could be love. OK, it’s probably not love. Enjoy.

Someone asked me two weeks ago why it was that everyone thought Daryl Morey was so good at his job. His team hasn’t made the playoffs in several years, they haven’t been a title contender since injuries wrecked the team in 2009. And all their players are so “eh.” Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, Patrick Patterson, Chase Budinger, Chandler Parsons, on and on and on.

Here was what I said, and it remains true.

“He manages to come out ahead on nearly every deal he executes. He drafts smart for his position, he just hasn’t landed one of those shocker ‘way better than expected’ guys because they’re really difficult to lock down. He takes advantage of teams desperate for position, like the Knicks clearing cap space for the 2010 summer. And when the players he brings in play to the very extent of their ceiling, in large part because of the position that his team has put them in, like with Carl Landry, he tends to bid them a fond farewell instead of desperately trying to hang onto players who are replaceable. That doesn’t happen a lot in this league.”

And then I told that person, “He’s made his share of mistakes, but more than anything, it seems like all these other moves he understand aren’t what building a team is about.”

Morey has publicly said for years that stars win in this league and that the Rockets have to acquire one. When Yao Ming was forced out, that became Morey’s biggest objective.

Here’s the problem, and it’s a big one with how fans tend to perceive management.

Getting a superstar is unlike anything else in the sport. You can manage your cap, clear the books, find supporting players, build a winning culture, overhaul your facilities, bring in a star coach, do everything. And it can still not work out. Because superstars are, in large part, cuckoo for Cocoa-Puffs. You have to make them happy, you have to woo them, you have to have them like the city, and like the idea of the city and the team, and the idea of the team. It’s cooler to play for the Heat than the Rockets. It’s cooler to play for the Knicks than the Rockets. Now, it’s cooler to play for the Rockets than the Bucks, which is a shame, because the Bucks have actually routinely put together good cheap supporting cast and Milwaukee would go bonkers for them if they were good. But that problem exists.

The biggest critics of Morey tend to emanate from the West Coast, usually Lakers fans or media, based off the insulting notion that Shane Battier was a good defender of Kobe Bryant, despite the fact that both Battier and the story that detailed his success repeatedly noted that Bryant lights him up anyway, because he’s Kobe Bryant. But one dares not approach the throne, apparently, and there’s been a significant bitterness towards Morey and the whiz kid label. A common question asked is “How can he be so good if he’s never landed a star?” And the truth is that Los Angeles is magnetic for NBA players. Warm weather, lavish parties, fun things to do, high profile fame, a rabid fanbase, a historically awesome and relevant team, Jack at courtside, and an owner willing to spend to win. Trying to convince a player to play for the Lakers is not difficult.

(This in no way should diminish the work that Mitch Kupchak has done since 2008, acquiring Pau Gasol for peanuts and the promise of Marc Gasol, bringing in Ron Artest, letting Trevor Ariza walk to make more money than at value for someone else, drafting talented role players, managing the roster and understanding when to leverage picks for assets. The point is simply that luring stars to L.A. is not exactly the hardest fish to catch.)

So we return to Morey, who after repeated attempts just to get free agents to come in for a visit, just to see the market size of Houston, to see the amount of money that Rockets ownership has invested in the team and its facilities, finally started turning an eye to a superstar. Morey was faced with a difficult decision. He could tank out to try and draft a superstar, or he could go the other path. Win now, and be in a position to win later.

Rockets fans may have been frustrated by the mediocrity of the team over the past four years, but they also have not suffered through miserable failure after miserable failure. They’ve had a team they could track in the playoff standings, players they could get excited about, a team that was good, just not great, and certainly not a title contender. It was fun to watch at times, while never being dominant. What it did have was good players on movable contracts, extra draft picks, flexibility to absorb salary, and rookies. And forwards. Lots of forwards.

You can’t force a superstar to join your team unless you draft him, and that requires both a phenomenal risk in winding up as a team that misses in the lottery, sometimes repeated years, and for that player to actually live up to billing. You either have to woo them in free agency or swing for a trade and then try and make it work. And for years, Morey has delicately balanced the boat on dangerous waters, never giving up so much that the team would be wrecked while always keeping a team with good players on manageable contracts. That’s a dangerous and difficult place to keep the ship, but he’s done it. It doesn’t win you points with fans or the media, though and at the end of the day, it doesn’t win you enough games.

So Morey has finally crossed the threshold. It’s a point of no return for the Rockets.

Lowry, liquidated for a draft pick.

Dragic: dislodged for cap room to absorb salary.

Scola: amnestied for cap room to allow salary.

Lin: Overpaid for to ensure a quality sidekick.

Budinger: Sent packing to make room.

Royce White, Jeremy Lamb, Terrence Jones: Look who Morey drafted. No safe picks there. All high upside guys with great conditioning, no injury concerns, loved by scouts and GM’s in workouts and high caliber players. Morey didn’t draft for need, he specifically drafted the players best used for packaging.

Omer Asik: Yeah, no one really knows what the idea behind that is, and it’s hard to see where they’re going with this. Everything can’t make sense, this is the NBA.

Want to know how you know the Rockets will be bad next year if they don’t get Dwight Howard? Every hardcore NBA fan is really excited about watching the team. Lin, with Lamb, Kevin Martin, Parsons, Jones and White, and Asik? That’s a crazy fun, quirky, insane little team. That will probably in all likelihood not make the playoffs. Entertaining and good are very rarely the same. (Oh, hey there, Celtics.)

Morey has pointed everything the Magic’s way. You want draft picks? You got ‘em. You want young players? Sure thing, got all the athletic forwards you could want. Want to dump salary? Lots of room here, provided you take Kevin Martin or some of our other spare parts! Morey has done everything but sent Rob Hennigan personalized luggage. And I’m sure that’s coming in the mail.

Here’s the kicker. Morey has had to extend himself so far in this pursuit, that he could wind up in the worst of both worlds. What if the Magic have to surrender the young players, the picks, take on the salary, and wind up with Howard, but the rest of the team isn’t good enough? Howard departs in free agency (a bluff but not one he’s incapable of actually following through with), and the Rockets are out draft picks, have a bloated salary structure with aging players on long-term contracts, no stars, no young talent besides Lin and maybe one other player, and no Howard. It would be like dropping an atomic bomb on the franchise. But that’s the risk that Morey may have to take to get a star. That’s how difficult it is.

And if it doesn’t? They could be bad, and maybe that wouldn’t be the worst thing. A young, bad team, with potential that’s fun to watch, that could land in the top eight or so of the lottery, and potentially walk away with Noel or Muhammad in the lottery. That would set the team up. Not getting Howard could be a good thing. But either way, Morey has finally crossed that line. Time to be the whiz kid or get off the pot, so to speak.

Dwight Howard or bust.

This is the life of the NBA executive, and why championship teams are at once so self-evident and so complicated to assemble.

  1. dylude - Jul 20, 2012 at 1:32 PM

    Good read….

    However most of the picks we have to trade aren’t our own, so if we suck next year and the following year we retain our lottery picks.

    We have Dallas’ 1st, Toronto’s 1st, Charlotte’s 2nd, 2 NYK 2nds and another first I can’t even remember to send to Orlando so a deal can be made without giving up our 2014 or 2015 1st so if Dwight leaves Morey can still draft back to back lottery picks after tanking.

    • Kevin S. - Jul 20, 2012 at 3:16 PM

      Right. And given that they owe Atlanta a lottery-protected first, it becomes difficult for them to even offer their own pick in a deal with Orlando. When does the protection on that pick expire? Because Orlando can’t get one of Houston’s picks until two years after it expires or goes to the Hawks.

  2. dylude - Jul 20, 2012 at 1:32 PM

    Good read….

    However most of the picks we have to trade aren’t our own, so if we suck next year and the following year we retain our lottery picks.

    We have Dallas’ 1st, Toronto’s 1st, Charlotte’s 2nd, 2 NYK 2nds and another first I can’t even remember to send to Orlando so a deal can be made without giving up our 2014 or 2015 1st so if Dwight leaves Morey can still draft back to back lottery picks after tanking.

  3. timb12 - Jul 20, 2012 at 1:52 PM

    I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if the rockets didn’t bomb for the last week of the regular season and made the playoffs.

  4. thekingdave - Jul 20, 2012 at 2:05 PM

    Three equals “several” in what universe? And also, if you had actually read that Lewis article, Battier did have a unique way of guarding Bryant. Limiting fouls, forcing long twos, and making him take 30 plus shots to get to 40 pts. Never did it claim he “shut him down”.

    Jeremy Lin: Overpaid for to sell tickets while tanking if Howard trade falls through, which is all Les Alexander cares about

  5. papichulo55 - Jul 20, 2012 at 2:08 PM

    Good, fresh read. Thanks.

  6. shaft1234 - Jul 20, 2012 at 4:26 PM

    Give the guy credit for trying to make a better team. Best wishes Daryl morey

  7. dylude - Jul 20, 2012 at 4:36 PM

    Kevin, that’s why a Dwight rental is an option. If we make the playoffs we pay off the debt to Atlanta, then if we lose Dwight we can tank and we have those draft picks. Giving up our future firsts weren’t on the table ever, Orlando would rather have draft picks of teams that won’t have Dwight on the roster, makes sense to me but no one admits it. The three future firsts the Nets were offering we’re going to be in the mid 20s… Not much better than Charlotte’s 2nd.

  8. systemblower - Jul 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM

    Very good article, but I think there is a simple formula for Morey that is rather complex. Balance trying to build a competitive franchise that turns a profit with the idea of drawing and keeping fans who are smart enough to sooner or later figure out if their team is really trying to compete.

    Bobcats fans, assuming they exist, know that their franchise is blowing up everything and not competitive at this point. They may buy into building for the future, but even that scenario leaves a huge uphill battle of filling seats.

    Bulls fans know a different pain. Very strong and loyal fan base, but mention the name Reinsdorf and the agitation will begin. The team is being dismantled in current form after back-to-back seasons which were fairly outstanding, even if disappointing in the end result.

    Point being: Morey is a great mind and a believer in analytics. This article does a great job of pointing out that he definitely gets the most being for his buck, but eventually you have to make a move, even if against better judgment or sound practice. If you don’t, the fans will turn away and the game then becomes to simply gauge how quickly the arena will empty.

    Here is a great article that I read last year, written by one Daryl Morey: http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/08/success_comes_from_better_data.html

  9. therealhtj - Jul 20, 2012 at 9:47 PM

    He lost me at Asik.

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