Jun 11, 2012, 8:05 AM EST
No doubt, Miami can win these NBA finals. They may be mild underdogs, but they are in this. LeBron can get the ring he craves.
Yes, I picked Oklahoma city to win (in six). It’s not that the Heat don’t have the talent, I’m just not convinced that for four out of seven games they can execute for 48 minutes at the level it will take for them to win this series.
What do they need to ex? Glad you asked. Here are the five keys to Miami beating Oklahoma City in the NBA finals.
1) LeBron James needs to be exceptional. This is not the “LeBron James needs to be clutch” argument, unless (like me) you consider the entire finals clutch. Besides, like Game 6 against Boston, you can be clutch from the opening tip and not need to make a shot late.
But right now the Heat cannot score enough points to keep up with the Celtics — let alone a team with an powerful offense like the Thunder — unless LeBron James puts up monster numbers. He has to play like the MVP and then some. It’s what they’ve become. He needs to be getting those points in attack mode driving the lane, but if he wants to have one of those “I can’t miss from the midrange” games like he had in Game 6 against Boston the Heat will take it.
2) Miami needs focused, intense defense. All the time. Miami has the best defense that Oklahoma City has seen this playoffs — they are athletic, they are long, they can clog passing lanes and force you into isolation plays. Miami loves to switch on pick-and-rolls and they can do that without creating some of the mismatches that the Thunder exploit against other teams. The Heat can force turnovers and instantly spin those into dramatic transition points the other way. Miami can slow the Thunder down.
Boston — the 25th best offense in the NBA during the regular season — put up more than 100 points twice and more than 90 points two other times on that Heat defense in the last series. Miami did not bring much focus and intensity on defense every game, or even every quarter of every game.
Miami can’t do that in this series — you give the Thunder offense a crack in the door they will blow it open and run you over. Miami just needs to be focused, they need to use whatever emotional edge they can to bring that defensive effort every game.
3) Heat spot up shooters have to knock down shots. When Miami beat Oklahoma City at home on April 4, their spot up shooters hit 9-of-18 looks, 6-of-10 from three (they were 7-of-21 on spot ups in their loss to this team). Oklahoma City made a point of really showing out on the pick-and-roll, the big jumping out very early and hit to cut off driving lanes. The Thunder were very aggressive. The price for that is the Heat are one or two passes away from someone else getting a good look. LeBron and Dwyane Wade are willing passers, but the Heat shooters have been hit and miss these players. They have to knock down those looks to win.
4) Chris Bosh needs to play more minutes, step up on court. Bosh is huge for the Heat’s offense and you saw that in Game 7 against Boston — when LeBron and Wade are driving the lane, Bosh puts pressure on the opposing big because you can’t cheat off him to protect the rim or he will knock down threes. He needs to do that in an expanded roll against the Thunder. He also will need to be big on the boards — in their two regular season meeting the team that controlled the glass won and this series will see more of the same.
5) Dwyane Wade needs to physically and mentally be ready to go. Dwyane Wade has been good these playoffs, but has been battling a left knee problem and has not been outstanding, other than for spurts. He needs to have some better-than-good offensive games, which will not be easy with Thabo Sefolosha getting time on him. What’s more, he needs to be good on defense again — he gambled a lot against the Celtics and at times that was exposed. Do that against the Thunder and they will make you pay fast and every time.
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