May 29, 2012, 7:59 PM EST
Fates will be decided by some bouncing balls and random numbers Wednesday.
Not just the fate of lock No. 1 overall pick Anthony Davis (and guys like Andre Drummond, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson and many more). It’s the fate of franchises (and general managers) that will be decided.
What would it mean to the 14 teams in the lottery to win? Here’s a run down (with their odds of pulling the top spot).
1. Charlotte Bobcats – 25.0%: It means a shot at redemption in the marketplace. Former owner George Shinn came in and ruined the Charlotte market, the new franchise has never fully won back the local fans. Not even with Michael Jordan as owner. Only three things can win the market back — a genuine superstar, winning and committed ownership. The Bobcats have had none of this and basically tanked this season with a weak roster to start. Anthony Davis would start to change that. There’d be a long way to go, but it would be a big start if they win this.
2. Washington Wizards -19.9%: You put Anthony Davis with John Wall and you have the cornerstones of a future contender in Washington. They need to change the locker room culture, they need veteran role players, they need a lot of things but Davis and Wall could be contender cornerstones.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers – 13.8%: They’ve started a turnaround with Kyrie Irving there, shaking off the memories of he who shall not be named. Any of the top three (or four) spots lets them bring in another quality player, likely a big, to pair with Irving as the rebuild goes forward. Davis accelerates that fast and you have the building blocks of contention.
4. New Orleans Hornets – 13.7%: They’ve got a new owner in Tom Benson who is committed to New Orleans, let’s just hope he can build a winner with the Hornets faster than he could with the Saints. Winning the lottery certainly speeds that along and gives the franchise a player to build around (with Eric Gordon).
5. Sacramento Kings – 7.6%: Winning the top pick would give the Maloof Brothers someone special they could help sell in the community to get a new arena built in Sacramento. Instead they’ll just try to take him to Anaheim.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (or Nets) 7.5%: The Nets have a slim shot at the top spot but a 25 percent chance of jumping into the top three — which means a 25 percent chance of keeping their pick. The Nets traded this pick to Portland in the Gerald Wallace deal and it is only top three protected. Basically, the Nets get lucky and draw the top pick and they can convince Deron Williams to stay and play with Davis, or they get the 2/3 pick and try to package that in a Dwight Howard trade. Otherwise Portland’s rebuild gets a nice player to fit in. Most likely the Blazers get it. If the Nets get a top pick right before they move to Brooklyn let the conspiracy rumors fly.
7. Golden State Warriors – 3.6%: For new owners trying to breath life into a long-quiet franchise, a marquee name to go with Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut would be a big boost and get them to the playoffs. And might help them sell that new arena they want in the city.
8. Toronto Raptors – 3.5%: They have a long, long way to go to recover from the Chris Bosh trade and they lack a star or team identity. Dwane Casey did a good job under the radar there last year, he deserves the chance to coach real talent.
9. Detroit Pistons – 1.7%: They have some nice young pieces — Brandon Knight, Greg Monroe — and a move up to the top spot suddenly makes them the young team on the rise in the east. Any of the top three spots really helps.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota) – 1.1%: Remember last year the Cavaliers got the top pick not on their own high odds but on the low chances from a mid-season trade with the Clippers. That could happen to the Hornets, here.
11. Portland Trail Blazers – 0.8%: Do we really want to see the Trail Blazers draft a big man No. 1 overall again? They already have a good core with LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and guys like Luke Babbitt on the roster, add any of the top three picks and they look like a team on the rise.
12. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.7% They have a back court of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, they win the lottery (or land in the top three) and get a good young big to put with them and you have something to really build on.
13. Phoenix Suns – 0.6%: Win the lottery and they definitely get Steve Nash to stay. Davis’ offense is supposed to be the part of his game that needs to develop. Things develop a lot faster when Nash is feeding you the rock.
14. Houston Rockets – 0.5%: This is a team that has had a lot of good role players — Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry — but no star. They win this and suddenly they are a team on the rise with serious potential.
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