May 28, 2012, 8:50 AM EDT
Miami 46-20 (No. 2 seed)
Boston: 39-27 (No. 5 seed)
Boston won the season series 3-1. In their second to final game before the playoffs the Heat did not play any of their big three against the Celtics, so toss that one out.
Celtics: Starting two guard Avery Bradley is out after having surgery on both shoulders last week, and his defense will be missed. That moves Ray Allen into the starting lineup but he battling through ankle pain that may need surgery after the season. Paul Pierce has a sprained knee that will not be right until this summer.
Heat: Chris Bosh is still out with a strained abdomen and you shouldn’t expect to see him this series. Dwyane Wade has a knee issue and had to have it drained during the last series. Mike Miller has more things wrong with him than that guy on the table in the game operation, but he will be out there.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession)
Heat: Offense 106.6 (8th in NBA); Defense 100.2 (4th in NBA)
Celtics: Offense 101.0 (27th in NBA); Defense 98.2 (1st in NBA)
THREE KEY CELTICS:
Rajon Rondo: When the pressure was on he played his best late in Game 7 against Philly — now he’s going to have to replicate that every game against the Heat for the Celtics to have a chance. They need his penetration to set up the other Celtics, particularly Brandon Bass cutting baseline or knocking down the midrange jumper. They need his jumper to fall. They need his defense. They need him to have the best playoff series of his life
Kevin Garnett: The Heat don’t have the size to exploit the Celtics when they go smaller and play KG at the five, which is good for Boston. Garnett’s offense was good against Philly but Boston needs more — he simply has to get deep post position and bring it on offense. Without Bosh to defend him Garnett has to put up big numbers for the Celtics to score enough in this series.
Paul Pierce: He had Andre Iguodala on him last series, if he gets hot at all in this one he’ll get LeBron James. Great. But again it comes down to scoring — we know the Celtics will defend well and as talented as the Heat are they will not score as much as normal. The problem is that Boston needs to put up more points than they have in the playoffs and they are about to face the best defense they’ve gone against yet.
THREE KEY HEAT:
LeBron James: Heat coach Erik Spoelstra pulled no punches the other day — LeBron and Dwyane Wade are going to have to play at the level the duo did for the last three games of the Pacers series for the Heat to have a chance in this one. Boston plays great team defense but LeBron can get his and has to get his for the Heat to be successful. Also, he likely will have Paul Pierce to defend late in games, he has to shut down The Truth.
Dwyane Wade: Read what Spoelstra said above — the Heat need his scoring. They will need his defense and steals that create transition offense. They need the Wade that is one of the elite players in the NBA, anything less and they are thin.
Udonis Haslem: He’s got work to do at both ends of the floor. Defensively he’s going to get some time matched up on Garnett, and that could include key times in the game. They need his defense (and not his flagrant fouls, because the Celtics will be physical). On the other end, they need him to space the floor, to knock down the midrange jumper when Wade drives the lane and kicks it out. Like Haslem did in Game 5. They need that guy.
In their regular season meetings, the Celtics offense torched the Heat defense. Even if you throw out the final meeting when the Heat just rolled out the subs for 48 minutes.
Boston put up 117 in a game on Miami and racked up incredible shooting numbers in the regular season. The Celtics hit 76 percent of their corner threes against the Heat, with Ray Allen and others getting good looks (Boston shot 44 percent from there for the season). In their four meetings Boston shot 66.7 percent on long twos (20 feet to the arc). That’s the worst shot in basketball and they killed it from there. (Stats via NBA.com).
I don’t think they can come close to replicating that for four out of seven games. First off, two Boston wins came in April when they caught Miami during its “we’re just waiting for the playoffs to start” malaise. Also, against the Sixers last round the Celtics were not hitting those shots consistently. Ray Allen is not shooting like Ray Allen right now because of that ankle injury.
Instead I expect the Celtics will work hard to establish Garnett on the block, especially with Bosh not there to defend. He is going to have to have a monster series for the Celtics to have a chance. Also, Rondo is going to have to get into the teeth of the defense and create open looks for Garnett and Bass, who need to knock them down.
Miami’s defense is like a better version of the Sixers — they just have athletes all over the floor that pressure, gamble and try to force you into mistakes they turn into transition points. If Boston is to have any chance they have to break that pressure and put up points.
On offense, Miami is going to count on huge series from Wade and LeBron, who are attacking off the pick and roll. Boston lacks someone the size of Roy Hibbert on the back line but still no team was better during the regular season at containing the ball-handler coming off the pick. The Celtics need to get the attack-minded duo to hesitate and ultimately give up the ball.
What makes Miami dangerous is when Wade and Lebron can trust guys like Udonis Haslem, Shane Battier and Mike Miller to knock down kickout shots (this is also where they miss Chris Bosh). And it should go without saying, you have to slow the Heat’s transition game. Well, you can say it but doing it is something else entirely.
Miami in 5.
The truth is the Heat already beat the second best team in the East last round (after the Derrick Rose injury changed the landscape). Boston if they were healthy all the way around would have some pieces to challenge Miami but without Bradley’s defense and a steady Allen they don’t have the guys on the wings to defend the Heat. Boston’s defense is good, but their offense will not be able to keep up with what the Heat put on the board.
Report: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker part of Spurs pitch to LaMarcus Aldridge (and they may be favorites)
Jun 30, 2015, 1:01 AM EDT
The Spurs are right at the front of the line with the Lakers to win Aldridge over.
Jun 29, 2015, 11:45 PM EDT
We knew Korver would need ankle surgery, but this is a bit of a surprise.
Jun 29, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
Aldridge is expected to leave Portland, and the most recent report has the Lakers as the frontrunners to retain his services.
Jun 29, 2015, 9:45 PM EDT
Clippers remain frontrunners to retain Jordan’s services; Lakers, Mavericks also in the mix.
Jun 29, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
Antic was with the Hawks the last two seasons.
Jun 29, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Davis is looking for a multi-year deal.
Jun 29, 2015, 6:50 PM EDT
The bottom line is this: Butler is going to be a Bull next season.
Jun 29, 2015, 6:16 PM EDT
The first rule of trading a player is to not look like you want to trade that player.
Jun 29, 2015, 5:20 PM EDT
Kind of hard to picture him going to the Raptors considering the other options on the table.
Jun 29, 2015, 4:31 PM EDT
The real question for Wade and his effort to leverage the Heat: Who is going to give him more money than Miami?
Jun 29, 2015, 3:44 PM EDT
The report says $12 million a year for Afflalo, that price seems steep.
Jun 29, 2015, 3:18 PM EDT
They are trying to keep those two while dealing Joe Johnson and Deron Williams.
Jun 29, 2015, 2:46 PM EDT
Expect the Bledsoe drama to play out through the summer. Again.
Jun 29, 2015, 1:55 PM EDT
He has more leverage this way, can get a longer deal.
Jun 29, 2015, 1:24 PM EDT
Doesn’t Butler strike you as the kind of veteran the Spurs bring in and he’s rejuvenated?
Jun 29, 2015, 12:44 PM EDT
The question is only what length of contract Love will sign.
Jun 29, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Where is Wade going to find a better deal on the open market?
Jun 29, 2015, 11:10 AM EDT
Stan Van Gundy’s offense doesn’t really fit two traditional bigs.
Jun 29, 2015, 10:37 AM EDT
There is interest in Joe Johnson out there, but his $24.9 million salary limits it.
Jun 29, 2015, 9:57 AM EDT
The Wizards would like to find a stretch four this summer then play Nene more as a backup to Gortat.
- Report: Chicago Bulls give Jimmy Butler max qualifying offer 17
- Report: Dwyane Wade will not opt-in with Heat, to become free agent (as expected) 25
- Report: Knicks front runner to land Arron Afflalo (and Greg Monroe, too) 27
- Report: Luol Deng surprises Miami, opts in for 2015-16 season 30
- Report: Sense around league is Kevin Love will re-sign with Cavaliers 31
- Report: As deadline nears, signs still point to Dwyane Wade opting out, becoming free agent 40
- Report: Dallas most likely team to lure DeAndre Jordan from Clippers, Chandler Parsons already recruiting 24
- Report: Lakers would still trade D’Angelo Russell for DeMarcus Cousins straight up. Kings wouldn’t. 30