May 28, 2012, 8:50 AM EDT
Miami 46-20 (No. 2 seed)
Boston: 39-27 (No. 5 seed)
Boston won the season series 3-1. In their second to final game before the playoffs the Heat did not play any of their big three against the Celtics, so toss that one out.
Celtics: Starting two guard Avery Bradley is out after having surgery on both shoulders last week, and his defense will be missed. That moves Ray Allen into the starting lineup but he battling through ankle pain that may need surgery after the season. Paul Pierce has a sprained knee that will not be right until this summer.
Heat: Chris Bosh is still out with a strained abdomen and you shouldn’t expect to see him this series. Dwyane Wade has a knee issue and had to have it drained during the last series. Mike Miller has more things wrong with him than that guy on the table in the game operation, but he will be out there.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession)
Heat: Offense 106.6 (8th in NBA); Defense 100.2 (4th in NBA)
Celtics: Offense 101.0 (27th in NBA); Defense 98.2 (1st in NBA)
THREE KEY CELTICS:
Rajon Rondo: When the pressure was on he played his best late in Game 7 against Philly — now he’s going to have to replicate that every game against the Heat for the Celtics to have a chance. They need his penetration to set up the other Celtics, particularly Brandon Bass cutting baseline or knocking down the midrange jumper. They need his jumper to fall. They need his defense. They need him to have the best playoff series of his life
Kevin Garnett: The Heat don’t have the size to exploit the Celtics when they go smaller and play KG at the five, which is good for Boston. Garnett’s offense was good against Philly but Boston needs more — he simply has to get deep post position and bring it on offense. Without Bosh to defend him Garnett has to put up big numbers for the Celtics to score enough in this series.
Paul Pierce: He had Andre Iguodala on him last series, if he gets hot at all in this one he’ll get LeBron James. Great. But again it comes down to scoring — we know the Celtics will defend well and as talented as the Heat are they will not score as much as normal. The problem is that Boston needs to put up more points than they have in the playoffs and they are about to face the best defense they’ve gone against yet.
THREE KEY HEAT:
LeBron James: Heat coach Erik Spoelstra pulled no punches the other day — LeBron and Dwyane Wade are going to have to play at the level the duo did for the last three games of the Pacers series for the Heat to have a chance in this one. Boston plays great team defense but LeBron can get his and has to get his for the Heat to be successful. Also, he likely will have Paul Pierce to defend late in games, he has to shut down The Truth.
Dwyane Wade: Read what Spoelstra said above — the Heat need his scoring. They will need his defense and steals that create transition offense. They need the Wade that is one of the elite players in the NBA, anything less and they are thin.
Udonis Haslem: He’s got work to do at both ends of the floor. Defensively he’s going to get some time matched up on Garnett, and that could include key times in the game. They need his defense (and not his flagrant fouls, because the Celtics will be physical). On the other end, they need him to space the floor, to knock down the midrange jumper when Wade drives the lane and kicks it out. Like Haslem did in Game 5. They need that guy.
In their regular season meetings, the Celtics offense torched the Heat defense. Even if you throw out the final meeting when the Heat just rolled out the subs for 48 minutes.
Boston put up 117 in a game on Miami and racked up incredible shooting numbers in the regular season. The Celtics hit 76 percent of their corner threes against the Heat, with Ray Allen and others getting good looks (Boston shot 44 percent from there for the season). In their four meetings Boston shot 66.7 percent on long twos (20 feet to the arc). That’s the worst shot in basketball and they killed it from there. (Stats via NBA.com).
I don’t think they can come close to replicating that for four out of seven games. First off, two Boston wins came in April when they caught Miami during its “we’re just waiting for the playoffs to start” malaise. Also, against the Sixers last round the Celtics were not hitting those shots consistently. Ray Allen is not shooting like Ray Allen right now because of that ankle injury.
Instead I expect the Celtics will work hard to establish Garnett on the block, especially with Bosh not there to defend. He is going to have to have a monster series for the Celtics to have a chance. Also, Rondo is going to have to get into the teeth of the defense and create open looks for Garnett and Bass, who need to knock them down.
Miami’s defense is like a better version of the Sixers — they just have athletes all over the floor that pressure, gamble and try to force you into mistakes they turn into transition points. If Boston is to have any chance they have to break that pressure and put up points.
On offense, Miami is going to count on huge series from Wade and LeBron, who are attacking off the pick and roll. Boston lacks someone the size of Roy Hibbert on the back line but still no team was better during the regular season at containing the ball-handler coming off the pick. The Celtics need to get the attack-minded duo to hesitate and ultimately give up the ball.
What makes Miami dangerous is when Wade and Lebron can trust guys like Udonis Haslem, Shane Battier and Mike Miller to knock down kickout shots (this is also where they miss Chris Bosh). And it should go without saying, you have to slow the Heat’s transition game. Well, you can say it but doing it is something else entirely.
Miami in 5.
The truth is the Heat already beat the second best team in the East last round (after the Derrick Rose injury changed the landscape). Boston if they were healthy all the way around would have some pieces to challenge Miami but without Bradley’s defense and a steady Allen they don’t have the guys on the wings to defend the Heat. Boston’s defense is good, but their offense will not be able to keep up with what the Heat put on the board.
Apr 21, 2015, 7:15 PM EDT
Expect to see a lot more Kawhi Leonard (and Danny Green) on Paul from the start.
Apr 21, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
He said it was a running joke with a teammate.
Apr 21, 2015, 5:40 PM EDT
Lillard was 5-of-21 in Game 1.
Apr 21, 2015, 4:51 PM EDT
The twins were allegedly part of a group that beat up a man outside a rec league basketball tournament.
Apr 21, 2015, 4:14 PM EDT
Horford is going to have work to do on the defensive end slowing down Brook Lopez.
Apr 21, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Well done, Zach Randolph and the Memphis Grizzlies.
Apr 21, 2015, 2:43 PM EDT
Teletovic was originally ruled out for the season on Jan. 23.
Apr 21, 2015, 1:50 PM EDT
Is nothing sacred?
Nets coach Lionel Hollins isn’t focused on stopping Kyle Korver: ‘It’s not like we’re talking Stephen Curry’
Apr 21, 2015, 1:10 PM EDT
Korver led the Hawks with 21 points in Atlanta’s Game 1 win over the Nets.
Apr 21, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
He’ll consider everything.
Apr 21, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
Another report has Aldridge at no better than 50-50 to re-sign with the Blazers.
Apr 21, 2015, 11:10 AM EDT
Williams will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Apr 21, 2015, 10:26 AM EDT
Full voting results enclosed.
Apr 21, 2015, 9:50 AM EDT
Butler wasn’t wrong — he torched the Bucks for 31 points.
Bucks’ Zaza Pachulia ejected after two incidents with Bulls’ Nikola Mirotic, who left the game due to injury (VIDEO)
Apr 21, 2015, 9:10 AM EDT
Mirotic suffered a quad strain, a swollen knee and possibly a concussion.
Apr 21, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
Klay Thompson was the catalyst for both big Golden State runs.
Apr 21, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
It’s more around than over Pachulia, but it’s still impressive.
Apr 21, 2015, 1:37 AM EDT
Golden State wins Game 2, 97-87
Apr 21, 2015, 12:14 AM EDT
Pierce’s comments made him unpopular north of the border, but his play should bother the Raptors more.
Apr 20, 2015, 11:07 PM EDT
Jimmy Butler’s 31 points led the way.
- PBT Extra matchups to watch: Spurs look for ways to contain Chris Paul 0
- PBT Extra matchups to watch: Can Memphis keep Damian Lillard in check? 0
- Report: Suns’ Morris twins charged with aggravated assault 7
- Hawks’ Mike Budenholzer named 2014-15 NBA Coach of the Year 9
- With Anthony Davis and Pelicans drained, Warriors deliver down the stretch 12
- PBT Extra matchup to watch: Can Toronto keep Paul Pierce quiet on the court? 6
- Bulls overcome ugly start to take 2-0 series lead over Bucks 14
- PBT Extra matchup to watch: Dallas has to find a way to deal with Dwight Howard 6