May 22, 2012, 4:52 PM EDT
Game 4 was what Heat fans expected this team to look like — LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were each an unstoppable force and played well off each other, the Heat played suffocating defense, and a role player (Mario Chalmers in the first half, Udonis Haslem in the second) stepped up.
But can they duplicate that at home for Game 5?
Don’t bet on it.
Miami may still win, but it’s going to be a different game. With the series tied 2-2, expect both teams to play with a sense of desperation. And since the teams have developed a real playoff distaste for each other, expect some physical play.
Tempo will be a key thing to watch — Miami wants to get back to more of their up-tempo offense. In part because Wade and LeBron are beasts in the open court, in part because they need to get buckets before Roy Hibbert sets up shop down low and changes everything. Miami talked about getting back to their space and pace offense, and even some of that would be welcome by coach Erik Spoelstra.
Something you can expect is the tough defense from both teams — these are two sides that try to get their offense out of defense and both have slapped on the clamps for stretches of this series. With everything on the line (and shooters a little tighter) look for a tight defensive game. If one side can get some easy buckets in transition it will be a huge boost (something that favors the Heat).
If the Pacers are going to win on the road they need to keep Hibbert out of foul trouble — when he sat in the third quarter of Game 4 the Heat went on their run to take control of the game. Look for the Heat to go at him and try to draw fouls, Hibbert has to avoid those and not pick up any stupid ones. Indy needs him on the court.
The Pacers also could use less chest bumping of opponents from Danny Granger and more efficient shooting from their leading scorer, who is hitting just 35 percent of his shots this series (granted, against some very good defenders).
We know the Heat are going to get a big game out of LeBron James (although to expect his ridiculous 40 point, 18 board, 9 assist game again may be asking too much). He just does that. The bigger issue is Dwyane Wade and his balky knee — he came up with a huge 30 points in Game 4 and with Chris Bosh still out they are going to need him to step up.
The Heat also need someone else to step up. In Game 4 Chalmers and Haslem played well for stretches, in Game 5 it has to be someone — Shane Battier, Mike Miller, anyone. Dexter Pittman even… okay, that’s not happening.
Game 5 is not going to look like Game 4. That was the outlier in this series. But if the outcome is the same, Miami will not care how they got there.
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