May 19, 2012, 1:00 PM EDT
We’ve reached a point where you pretty much have to say that if the Los Angeles Clippers are going to make their Western Conference Semifinals series into a competitive contest, they’re going to need San Antonio to hurt itself. They’re going to need mistakes, mental breakdowns, missed shots, and some good old fashioned luck. They’re going to need San Antonio to turn into Memphis, essentially, a team that beats itself and can’t catch a break.
Because if they don’t? This thing is over.
The Clippers’ defense has been up and down all season. But against San Antonio, it’s just been out-classed. Danny Green and Gary Neal put up 20 points on them in a game. That can’t happen. Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw put 25. That can’t happen. The Clippers are getting killed inside and out, and after a Grizzlies series where they honestly defended and closed out on (poor) perimeter shooters, they’ve gotten lost in the whirlwind of San Antonio’s system. It has not gone well.
If they want to turn this around in Game 4, they need better play on both ends. You just can’t see it happening. Chris Paul is not healthy, that’s pretty clear. Neither is Blake Griffin. Throw in the fact that San Antonio’s perimeter defense has helped consistently to attack CP3 with multiple defenders at multiple angles and that, shock of all shocks, Boris Diaw has actually done a fantastic job on Blake Griffin, and the Clippers’ two biggest weapons are out of whack. The Spurs are chasing Mo Williams off his three and into a mid-range jumper, they’re closing out shooters, they’re shutting down first, second, third options.
They’ve been better, is pretty much what I’m saying.
What does Game 3 mean for the Spurs? It essentially guarantees that the Spurs will have rest before the Conference Finals. They’re healthy, so this isn’t key, but it’s always a nice plus. It means there’s no risk involved. The series is over if the the Spurs win Game 3, even if it’s not over. The Clippers are not coming back from a 3-0 deficit. San Antonio doesn’t need this game. They can win the series if the Clippers win the next two. They don’t need the rest. They don’t have to make a statement. Honestly, Game 3 is a bonus game for San Antonio at this point. They’ve proven they’re better, for the whole season, in this series. It’s just a question of how dominant they are when the conference finals hit and if they’ll have spent any time with adversity whatsoever.