May 9, 2012, 2:33 PM EDT
The last two games, the Heat did not bring their “A” game, and they still won one game against the Knicks and lost the other by two points. Conventional wisdom says Miami comes home Wednesday night, crank up the defensive pressure again and just run away and hide from the Knicks.
That could happen.
But the Knicks showed a few signs of life in Game 4, snapping their 13 game playoff losing streak. If all those things can repeat themselves and actually improve while away from Madison Square Garden the Knicks have a shot. Yes, I know the odds of that.
Here’s what has to happen.
• Mike Bibby has to play well. He’s the starting point guard, but really in name only — Carmelo Anthony has the ball in his hands most possessions, J.R. Smith will get some turns and Bibby will spend much of the game working off the ball. The Heat don’t fear him, as evidenced by Dwyane Wade’s comments (via the Sun Sentinel):
“We know Mike has made more shots in this series than he made all last year (with the Heat),” Wade said. “Send that to Mike.”
Bibby doesn’t have to do much, but when he does something he needs to be efficient — knock down the shot, don’t turn the ball over.
• Amare Stoudemire needs to have another big game. He was the unexpected boost for the Knicks in Game 4 — he was back from his hand’s run in with a fire extinguisher and really produced with 20 points and 10 rebounds. Even though he was one handed and couldn’t go left. This was the best Anthony and Stoudemire have played off each other in a long time and they will have to repeat and improve on that to win in Miami.
• Carmelo has to go off again. He had 41 on Game 4 and he’ll need similar numbers again. What I don’t get is why the Heat stick with Shane Battier as his defender most of the time — Anthony is shooting 52 percent against Battier this series. Anthony attacks and goes at the smaller Battier every time. Anthony likes isolation sets, LeBron is as good an isolation defender as there is in the league. Look for the Heat to be more aggressive in how they defend Anthony and he’s still going to have to produce.
We could from here get into a debate on how the last Miami Heat shot should be handled. But if Miami plays up to its potential, it can be Dexter Pittman because he’s in for garbage time. The Knicks need a lot of things to go right for them, they have no margin for error.
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