May 2, 2012, 12:35 PM EDT
Amare Stoudemire is out, having lost his fight with a fire extinguisher in Miami.
Which has a number of Knicks faithful saying it is a blessing in disguise — Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony were not working well together. The Knicks played some of their best ball this season with a small-ball lineup where Anthony was the four, now they can go back to it. After two games in Miami where it didn’t look like there were a lot of ways for New York to get back in this series, this change brings some hope.
Stoudemire’s absence will give the Knicks a new look, but better is up for debate. And it still doesn’t seem like enough.
Anthony is clearly more comfortable at the four, where he is a mismatch. According to 82Games.com, Anthony scores nearly 10 more points per 100 possessions at the four and his effective field goal percentage (which includes a bump for made threes) jumps from 42.7 at the three to 51.8 at the four. Or look at it this way, at the three his PER is a slightly above average 16.5, at the four it is an all-world 28.9.
Also, with Anthony at the four it frees up room for more of Tyson Chandler’s rolls to the hoop off a high pick, which is an effective weapon. It allows them to space the floor with Steve Novak and J.R. Smith.
Mike Woodson may try to go small against the Heat, but that’s where the loss of Iman Shumpert really hurts. Shumpert made the Knicks small ball lineup work because he could be a perimeter defender that worked, something Novak and Smith cannot do nearly as well.
The other problem here is the opponent — the Heat are the best small ball lineup in the league. LeBron can still cover ‘Melo at the four spot. Smith and Novak cannot handle Wade. Also, the Knicks still run a lot of isolation sets and the Heat were the best isolation defensive team in the league this season, holding teams to 33.7 percent shooting on those plays.
The Knicks clearly need a change in this series to have a chance, and Stoudemire being out brings them back closer to a lineup where they had a lot of success. It gives some hope.
It just won’t be enough.
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