Apr 23, 2012, 5:03 PM EDT
We keep talking about the teams talking playoffs — who gets home court, Boston or Atlanta, or can Phoenix catch Utah and get the last spot in the West — but there is a tight race among teams who have long forgotten about the playoffs.
A lot of lottery odds are still to be decided this week as teams are bunched up near the bottom. A lot of team’s chances of landing Anthony Davis or taking a risk on Andre Drummond ride on this week.
Make no mistake, the Bobcats will clear and away have the best lottery odds. Thanks to their historically bad 7-56 record, they will have a 25 percent chance at the top spot and Davis. Washington (17-46) will finish second worst and have a 19.9 percent chance of winning the lottery. The matchup of Washington and Charlotte will have no meaning on this, it will just be hard for the rest of us to watch.
But after that it gets interesting.
New Orleans is third worst as I write this at 20-44 but then comes Sacramento (21-43), Cleveland (21-42), New Jersey (22-42) and Toronto (22-42) all within two games of each other. The Warriors are 23-41 and just one game back of the Nets and Raptors. They have a handy chart of all this at the Plain Dealer.
It matters if you are in tank mode — as it stands right now the Hornets would have a 15.6 percent chance of winning the top pick, the Raptors 4.3 percent. The odds drop off pretty steeply, and teams like some of the guys at the top of this draft a lot. Here is how the Plain Dealer describes it with the focus on Cleveland (for obvious reasons).
Losing out could move Cleveland ahead of Sacramento and New Orleans and into the third slot. That would give the Cavs a 15.6 percent chance of picking No. 1 and a 46.9 percent chance of picking somewhere in the top three.
Winning out could drop the Cavs below New Jersey, Toronto and Golden State and into a tie for eighth with Detroit. Losing the tiebreaker would put Cleveland ninth, with only a 1.7 percent chance of drafting No. 1 and just a 6.1 percent chance of picking somewhere in the top three.
There’s going to be some shifting at the bottom of the standings this week, too, and it may be as interesting to watch as at the top. Well, almost.
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