Jan 27, 2012, 2:24 PM EDT
It’s the first extension to the rookie contract — the first chance for NBA players to make serious, serious money. But as we saw this year teams are pretty careful about handing them out. They want to get value for that money, and there are just not a lot of max deal guys out there.
So what about the next class? Tom Ziller broke out some of the big names today at SBN.
Blake Griffin is a sure fire max. This requires about as much thought as Rose’s deal — Griffin is one of the top power forwards in the game, and his highlight reel game fills the building nightly. Even if he can get a Rose super-max deal, he’s a bargain. No owner will screw this up, not even Donald Sterling.
After that… don’t expect anybody to get a max deal. And you may not want to offer any of these guys deals. Let’s go by draft order (remember Griffin was No.1 overall).
2. Hasheem Thabeet. Not even eligible because his fourth year contract was not even offered.
3. James Harden. Here is one of the tricky ones — he deserves an extension but not a max deal. But what is the number? A deal like Gallinari’s ($42 million over four years)? Westbrook took less money this year in part to give the team room to bring back Harden, but can OKC get him to agree to a price that lets them also extend Serge Ibaka the following year? This could be a case where what the Thunder offer and what Harden thinks he can get on the open market vary greatly.
4. Tyreke Evans. Ziller put it this way.
It would be very Sacramento Kings to offer a five-year max on Day 1 of the early extension period, even without knowing which Tyreke Evans is the true version. Evans had a wash of a second season due in part to injury and in part to Paul Westphal’s painful lack of player development. This third season isn’t looking a whole lot better. I’d be hesitant to offer Evans much more than what Gallinari received at this point, but teams like the Kings can’t really afford to consider life without their best players.
I think that would be overpaying for him. The question with Evans is how much of his problems are his own doing and how much of it is because the Kings are a mess?
5/6. Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn. Neither of the Timberwolves picks are eligible. Rubio because he just came and started playing this season (he is in the first year of his contract) and Flynn because his fourth year was not extended.
7. Stephen Curry. Another tough one — good player, popular in the community, can fill up the basket, but his ankle injury history makes you hesitant to talk long-term deal. When healthy he also is in the $10 million a year range, but how his ankle heals will be the real deciding factor.
8. Jordan Hill. Also not eligible because nobody wanted his fourth year offer sheet.
9. DeMar DeRozan. A guy with so much athletic ability and potential who is really struggling in Toronto in his contact year. He’s not getting the max or anywhere near it, but let him become a restricted free agent and he’s the kind of guy some GM will overpay.
10. Brandon Jennings. The Bucks would like to keep him, but he is no max guy. Like Curry, this is a guy you make what you think is a fair offer too, but if he becomes a restricted free agent and market sets his price.
Other guys of note.
Jrue Holiday. Like Jennings, the 76ers want to keep him, and may make him an offer, but this is a franchise with a history of letting guys become restricted free agents.
Ty Lawson. If Denver makes a deep playoff run his stock goes up. The Nuggets want to keep him and he is likely going to get a pretty fair, healthy offer from the team.
Indiana is going to be focused on bigger fish this the summer, namely the restricted free agency of Roy Hibbert and possibly Eric Gordon. Hansbrough isn’t so highly thought of that his own restricted free agency in 2013 would be make-or-break for the Pacers, so there’s little reason to pre-empt it.
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