Oct 9, 2011, 4:30 PM EDT
With the players and owners meeting Sunday, there’s still little hope that a deal gets done. The perception is that they’re still extremely far apart. But here’s the thing. They’re really not.
From Ken Berger of CBSSports.com this morning on Twitter:
So here’s where we are: At their previous % of 43, owners would get $13.1B/six years… at 50 pct, they’d get $12.7B …
At 48.5 pct, owners would be $367M/year better off that previous deal, which more than addresses $300M annual loss …
By holding out for 50-50, owners are drawing line in sand over $400M total over six years, half of which they’d lose by canceling 2 weeks.
Similarly, players are holding out for $400m/six years by insisting on 53 pct. vs. 51.5 … they’d also lose half of that in 2 wks.
Also, difference between 53 and 51.5 for players in year 1 is $70 million, which they’d lose in less than a week of canceled games.
So to sum up, if games are canceled tomorrow, it won’t be due to money or common sense. It will be due to ego and stubbornness.
That is the money part, which makes sense. The psychological aspect of negotiations, sometimes, does not.
Sometimes, you have to follow through on your threats to make sure the other side knows you’re serious.
If you want to boil that down, here you go.
Both sides are willing to have games canceled despite the fact that it would actually cost more than splitting the difference at 51.5 percent.
It literally does not make financial sense for them to not make a deal.
But neither side wants to go to the middle. They want to win. They want that extra 1.5 percent. That’s where we’re at. 98.5 percent of the way there, and that extra 1.5 percent is the ocean. If it seems like that would indicate we’ll get a deal, don’t get your hopes up. That’s how moronic this whole thing has become. It’s about principle, not common sense. It’s about ego, not business. The numbers are there.
The season is not.
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