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Two South American Olympic bids decided Saturday

Sep 9, 2011, 2:25 PM EDT

ARG_vs_PAR_102

It all comes down to one game. Well, two games, actually.

Brazil vs. the Dominican Republic. Argentina vs. Puerto Rico.

Those are your two semi-finals of the FIBA Americas tournament on Saturday. But if your goal is a spot in the 2012 London Olympics, these are the big games. Win Saturday and you are in, lose and you head to a pre-Olympics qualifying tournament next July to slug it out for a second-chance berth against other teams that just missed out. Sunday the two winners will play for the Americas championship.

Brazil — playing without Nene, Anderson Varejao or Leandro Barbosa — are the top seed and have lost only one game all tournament. That was their previous meeting with the Dominican Republic. The D.R. is coached by John Calipari and has Al Horford, who has been very good all tournament. But how the D.R. does in this game swings on Francisco Garcia and Charlie Villanueva — when those two are on this a very hard team to beat, but those two have been wildly inconsistent. Shocking with them, I know. Brazil has been playing better the last week, but if it’s an on day for the Dominican Republic’s swing guys, they can win this.

Argentina came into this as the favorite and with the most stacked roster — Manu Ginobili, Luis Scola, Carlos Delfino and Andreas Nocioni. Argentina’s only loss is to Brazil, and they beat Puerto Rico 81-74 when they met in the group stage. Puerto Rico features J.J. Barea, Carlos Arroyo and Renaldo Balkman — all good players who need exceptional games if the island nation is to pull the upset here.

Check back with PBT on Saturday and we will recap these games. And if Puerto Rico wins we will run a photo of Barea’s girlfriend.

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