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History says Miami has a real chance to win this

Jun 10, 2011, 11:27 AM EDT

Lebron James (6) of the Miami Heat makes Getty Images

The odds favor the Dallas Mavericks — up 3-2 they need to win just one of the final two games in Miami to win the first title in the franchise’s history. Plus, the way they have been executing at the end of games, they must be considered the favorites.

But history says Miami has a good shot at winning.

Seven times a team has been down 3-2 heading home for the final two games — three times they came back to win. (Stat via Chris Tomasson)

The most recent was the Lakers last season, who trailed the Celtics 3-2 coming back to Staples Center (and still needed a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback to pull it off over a Kendrick Perkins-less Celtics). Although, those Lakers had already shown a championship pedigree and fire we have yet to see out of these Heat.

The other teams to do it were the 1988 Lakers coming back on the Detroit Pistons and the 1994 Houston Rockets coming back on Pat Riley’s New York Knicks.

Still, more times than not the team up 3-2 wins. Those teams have been the 1985 Lakers (Magic Johnson’s baby skyhook in the lane to beat the Celtics in the Garden); the 1993 Bulls (Charles Barkley’s Suns couldn’t win two at home over Jordan’s Bulls); the 1998 Bulls (Jordan’s final year, he wasn’t about to lose); and the 2006 Miami Heat (who closed out Dallas in these same circumstances).

The shoe is on the other foot now. We’ll see if Dallas can return the favor to Miami and close out on the road.

  1. SmackSaw - Jun 10, 2011 at 12:01 PM

    Not with Wade hurt and LeBrick shooting 3’s.

  2. nfl25 - Jun 10, 2011 at 12:35 PM

    most miami fans have been so used to getting all the calls in the playoff and now that the calls are even, they feel the calls are agianst them. last night was one of the best officiated games i have seen. yet i bet certain miami fans would say it was bad. dude its not bad officiating if you dont get all the calls, thats called fair officiating. but now we go to miami so who knows how the officiating will be

    • barkley4life - Jun 10, 2011 at 1:26 PM

      Foul calls always even out some way some how. Home team gets the benefit of the whistle in the NBA and it’s been that way for decades. Just like whats a blocking foul by a defender on the road is a charging call at home.

  3. digitalpoo - Jun 10, 2011 at 12:43 PM

    Unless I’m mistaken, 11 times through NBA finals history when the series was tied at 1-1, the team that won game 3 went on to win the series all 11 times. If history stays constant then Miami is our champion. But maybe we can see Dirk make history for the 2nd time this postseason on Sunday.

    • barkley4life - Jun 10, 2011 at 1:23 PM

      It doesn’t matter fools with an agenda look past that and hold onto the couple of losses to prove their points that have been proven wrong so far throughout the playoffs.

      They will reinvent some other crap if the numbers come out like they do and the Heat win in 7.

      Same crap Laker haters said after Boston was up 3-2. Kobe shoots 7for23 in the Final game and RON ARTEST wins the game….NUMBERS DON’T LIE PEOPLE…

      • savvybynature - Jun 10, 2011 at 3:55 PM

        I believe that stat is: since they switched the home-court format to 2-3-2 the team that one game 3 when the series was tied 1-1 has gone on to win.

        I think that there have been more than 11 series tied 1-1 in NBA history.

    • ndirishfan1 - Jun 10, 2011 at 3:57 PM

      Game three winners in a tie series in the Finals are 11-0. Maybe we can get an article that says the Heat are a virtual guarantee to win the series…

      • debogail - Jun 10, 2011 at 9:07 PM

        Well then, let’s not have the game played. The percentage is 100%. Let’s go home.

  4. randysavage4ever - Jun 10, 2011 at 12:48 PM

    i wonder what the people who watch these games internationally think, they dont hear the sports media & drama in between games, they just know to tune in and what they see is Lebron James & Dwayne Wade on the same team. They expect them to win regardless of the past 5 games…

    We’ve seen this ending before, its just a different movie…

    Heat in 7.

    love dirk tho…

  5. rjlink1 - Jun 10, 2011 at 12:57 PM

    Small fact check: 1985 was not the year of Magic’s baby sky hook

  6. mella21 - Jun 10, 2011 at 12:58 PM

    Of course they do….once the Mavs lost game 3, the Heat had the upper hand. Because now going back to Miami, the onus is on the Mavs to take game 6….if they don’t, then game 7 is going to favor the Heat more than any other game thus far.

    Still, they have been battling really hard.

    • barkley4life - Jun 10, 2011 at 1:18 PM

      Stop your making sense…the same morons on here posting after Heat losses disappear if they win Gm6.

      You make basketball sense…GM3 was the pivotal game in Dallas AND THEY LOST. The numbers don’t lie for a reason…GM3 winners go on to win the series because win on the road in the NBA finals is difficult.

    • md23rewlz - Jun 10, 2011 at 4:46 PM

      Disagree that Game 7 is going to favor the Heat more than any game thus far, should it occur. Game 7’s are a crapshoot. If you get to a Game 7 in a series, then that means that the two teams are both fully capable. It’s not like home court “improves” in a Game 7. I’m sure any team would rather have home court for a Game 7, but I don’t think it’s a deciding factor by any stretch of the imagination. Dallas’ road record has been absurdly good this postseason.

  7. lunasceiling - Jun 10, 2011 at 1:22 PM

    If “history” is capable of making clutch shots and getting the key defensive stop, someone should draft him…

    • barkley4life - Jun 10, 2011 at 1:41 PM

      his signing bonus would be ridiculous.

  8. jb4820 - Jun 10, 2011 at 2:06 PM

    Two points on the above comments and the blog….1) While Kobe struggled game 7 last year with 6-24 shooting, he still managed to get to the free throw line and tally 24 points while pulling down 15 rebounds, many of which were huge stops to help the Lakers come back from down 13 in the 3Q. Also worth noting, Gasol was 6-18, Pierce 5-15 and Allen 3-14 from the field. It was an epic defensive battle for the ages and many of Kobe’s misses were last second shots to beat the 24 after tough half court D by the Celtics. 2) just a note that the 1985 Lakers did hold on to beat Boston in G6 in the Garden, however, Magic’s famous game winning baby hook actually came in G4 of the 1987 Finals to put the Lakers up 3-1.

    • ndirishfan1 - Jun 10, 2011 at 3:54 PM

      Valid points. Last year’s Game 7 was ugly. Kobe wasn’t the only star not shooting well but did contribute at the line, on defense and on the boards. But, like LeFacilitator, Kobe is polarizing so that’s what people remember.

  9. savocabol1 - Jun 10, 2011 at 2:08 PM

    Hang on for a second. You are saying that history says Miami has a real chance of winning it all because 3 out of 7 times a team has done it? Can you tell me why the article wasn’t written saying that Dallas has a real chance of winning it because the majority of the time (i.e. 4 out of 7) the team up 3-2 in your scenario does?

    I had to read this article four times before I realized you must have been drunk while writing this.

    • thejabronisayz - Jun 10, 2011 at 7:49 PM

      The point of the article is that despite being down 3-2, the Heat still do have a “real chance” of winning because 3 out of 7 times a team in their position has won. The article isn’t saying that the odds favor Miami; it is simply saying that Miami still has a shot to win. It’s pretty obvious that the Mavericks have a real chance of winning, so I don’t see the point of such an article.

  10. thetooloftools - Jun 10, 2011 at 3:04 PM

    Kobe doesn’t say anything before big games…. he just goes out there, rips your freakin’ heart out and shows it to you.
    He let’s HIS GAME do the talking.
    James isn’t fit to carry Kobe’s jewelry box.

  11. ilovefoolsball - Jun 10, 2011 at 3:11 PM

    I don’t read much basketball stuff I’m just visiting from the profootballtalk side of things.

    After reading a few posts I can tell you that I probably won’t be back, the writing and tone of the posts are very amateurish and you can feel the bias like I feel the humidity in New Orleans on an August day at noon o clock.

    • thetooloftools - Jun 10, 2011 at 5:24 PM

      Wow… like your post is rivetingly insightful.
      Feel free to go back under the rock you crawled out from under.
      You can’t comment because you don’t have a clue…. and stay out of the Baseball and Hockey rooms too.

  12. ndirishfan1 - Jun 10, 2011 at 3:49 PM

    The Heat do have a shot, though I couldn’t really care less about how many times it has happened before.

    The extra day off will be beneficial for Dwaye Wade’s back. Plus role players play better at home so LeFacilitator will probably have a few more assists. Who knows, maybe a couple more of his long jumpers may fall too.

  13. purdueman - Jun 10, 2011 at 6:41 PM

    What’s widely now being reported all over the radio and the internet today is that the reason Le Bum James seems checked out is that he’s found out that his finance (prior reports said that it was his former high school sweetheart accusing him of cheating on her, but I have no idea if his fiance is one and the same person), has been having a long affair with Washington Wizzard Richard Lewis!

    Yes, that certainly WOULD take any mans mind off his work, that’s for darned sure. Doesn’t change the fact though that he’s old enough now to where he ought to be able to block that out of his mind for 2 1/2 hours a basketball game every 2-3 days takes to play. If anything, I would think that he’d take his anger out on the court, but of course everyone handles such things differently.

    The rumors were first reported this morning by a Houston sports talk radio station (so please don’t shoot me for being the messenger).

    If there’s anything to these rumors, it’s bound to carry forward to the upcoming games in Miami; a ripped intimate relationship takes a lot longer to heal and has to be a lot more painful than a bruised hip (as Wade reportedly has).

    I’ve known guys over the years who have seriously even contemplated suicide when an intimate relationship unexpectedly goes south.

  14. MVQB7 - Jun 10, 2011 at 9:40 PM

    I got nothing against Wade or Bosh but I hope the Cleveland curse followed Queen James to South Beach.

  15. rreducla1 - Jun 11, 2011 at 4:36 AM

    Those teams have been the 1985 Lakers (Magic Johnson’s baby skyhook in the lane to beat the Celtics in the Garden


    That was Game 4 in 1987. The Lakers won Game 6 in ’85 111-100.

  16. metalhead65 - Jun 11, 2011 at 1:18 PM

    if I did not hate the heat before this series after reading their unofficial or is it official site now? I sure do now.I started reading this because it said pro basketball talk but you should change the name to heat basketball talk or I love lebron and company for as much cheerleading as you do. it’s great you love the lebron and the heat but just say so and spare the rest of us the bother of going to a site we thought was about the NBA .no matter what happens they can do no wrong in your book. according to your posts the mavs have yet to win a game and the heat have give away the games they have lost. making fun of dirk is no big deal but jason terry saying lebron checked out in the 4th quarter of a game is?imagine the outrage if dirk or one of the mavs were limping on a video mocking wade,pretty sure you would have thought that was a big deal.

  17. ku62 - Jun 11, 2011 at 6:10 PM

    The 2006 result doesn’t seem to fit “down 3-2, home for last two” If they won 4-2, how could they have 3 losses before the last two games (or at all)?

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