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NBA Playoffs: Nowitzki closes out Durant, Thunder in Game 4

May 24, 2011, 3:37 AM EST

Dallas Mavericks v Oklahoma City Thunder - Game Four Getty Images

Shortly after Kevin Durant entered the NBA, he was given the label of the NBA’s Next Great Closer. Everything about him suggests that he should be able to close teams out. He has a quiet confidence about him, is never afraid to shoot the ball, and never seems to break a sweat as he coldly pours in basket after basket.

More importantly, his game looks the part. Like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, the current closer archetypes, Durant is a great athlete with a beautiful jump shot and a natural grace about his game — it’s so easy to picture Durant firing a jump shot over a helpless defender as time expires, which is the image we always associate with “closers” in basketball.

Nowitzki, meanwhile, has never really been seriously considered as a closer. He’s soft. He’s European. He’s a big man. He missed a crucial free throw in Game 3 of the 2006 Finals. He’s never won a ring. Et cetera.

The truth, however, is that Dirk has been perhaps the deadliest closer in the NBA for years, while Durant has had his ups and downs in late-game situations.

This season, the Mavericks were the league’s best team in clutch situations, and Dirk was obviously the biggest reason for that. Nowitzki averaged 42 points per 48 minutes on 62.5% True Shooting in “clutch” situations, and the Mavericks outscored teams by an average of 38 points per 48 minutes when Nowitzki was on the floor in close games.

It should be noted that the Thunder were very good in close games this season as well, as was Durant. Durant averaged 44 points per 48 minutes on 55% True Shooting in “clutch” situations this season, and the Thunder outscored their opponents by 19.6 points per 48 minutes when Durant was on the floor in close games.

However, while Nowitzki has been great in close games for years, the Thunder’s late-game success has been a relatively recent development. Last season, the Thunder were actually outscored in “clutch” situations, and Durant shot only 35.6% in those situations.

This season, with Russell Westbrook and James Harden having emerged as impact players for the Thunder, Oklahoma City was able to get some ball movement late and allow Durant what he does best late in games — make a jumper or drive to the rim off of a pass.

According to Synergy Sports, Durant averages an impressive 1.14 points per possession when he gets the ball in catch-and-shoot situations and .98 points per possession when he gets the ball coming off a screen, but he struggles when he’s forced to be a primary playmaker. Durant averaged .91 points per possession (37% shooting) in isolation, .87 PPP as the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls, and .84 PPP on post-ups.

Throughout the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Thunder’s improved offensive movement and additional playmakers allowed Durant to be successful in the clutch. But on Monday night, Durant was forced to try and do everything himself, and the results weren’t pretty. In the last five minutes of the game, Durant only got three shots up, missed all of them, and committed one turnover and no assists. In overtime, Durant went 0-3 from the field again, and had another turnover without an assist.

Considering the lead the Thunder had with so little time remaining in the game, Durant probably should have been able to get away with a poor clutch performance. Unfortunately for him, Dirk Nowitzki was in the building and in the mood to show why he should be considered one of the best closers in basketball, if not the best.

Nowitzki scored 12 points in the final five minutes of the game, doing his damage with two mid-range jump shot, a shot from the paint, a three-pointer, and three made free throws, two of which tied the game with six seconds remaining. Nowitzki only scored two points in overtime, but he did assist on the Jason Kidd three with 40 seconds to go that ultimately put the Mavericks up for good.

Nowitzki may not be seen as having the “clutch gene” because of his late-game struggles in the finals a half a decade ago and his perceived “softness” (which is more rooted in xenophobia than it is in actual analysis of Nowtizki’s game), but he’s much better suited to succeed in late-game situations than Durant is.

Nowitzki shoots a ridiculous 53.2% in isolation situations, and 54.4% in post-up situations, which usually occur in the mid-to-high post area rather than the low post. Nowitzki’s mid-range jump shot, which he has become an absolute master at setting up, is the best go-to move in the NBA, bar none. Even if the defense knows it’s coming, they have little hope of stopping it, and Dirk has developed a few nifty counter-moves that allow him to score if the defense attempts to overplay the jumper too much. And if you try to play him physical and end up committing a foul, that’s two nearly-automatic points.

No matter how hard teams try to run their offense late in games, things generally devolve into one-on-one play with the paint walled off, and nobody is better in those situations than Dirk Nowitzki, especially not Kevin Durant. The Thunder learned that the hard way in Game 4.

The aesthetics of Durant’s game may mean he’ll still be considered by some to be a be a better “closer” than Nowitzki. However, if the Thunder fail to win the next three games in a row and end up going home early, Durant’s sterling clutch reputation would be a meager consolation prize. Durant is a decade younger than Nowitzki, and has time to improve on his late-game play, but on Monday Nowitzki put aside any doubt that he’s currently on another level than Durant is when it comes to late-game situations.

  1. purdueman - May 24, 2011 at 4:51 AM

    The OC Thunder… snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory! Better luck next year, fella’s. As the old saying goes, “You’ve just been schooled!”

    Anybody else out there find it more than just a little bit ironic that the Thunder home crowd last night was all dressed in dark blue to match the uniform color of the visiting Mavs? And speaking of home crowd colors, every time I see a crowd shot in Miami wearing nothing but all white BVD’s, I keep thinking that I’ve got the wrong game on and I look to see how BYU is doing!

  2. kahanapaniolo - May 24, 2011 at 5:02 AM

    Why is every sportswriter writing about how the OKC are learning this and how the OKC can win this way and that way. Blah Blah Blah. No One is talking about how the MAVERICKS are beating everybody. The experts picked Portland. The Lakers were two time champs. But NO ONE writes about the Mavericks. I Love It. Stay off our wagon. It’s ours and it’s a long time coming. Sssshhhhhhhh !!!

    • davidly - May 24, 2011 at 10:31 AM

      You can bet that the bandwagon will be overflowing if they meet the Heat.

  3. davidly - May 24, 2011 at 9:12 AM

    Top Ten Reasons those who’ve been around Long Enough Still Think Jordan Rates as the Game’s Best Closer
    Here we go, number…
    10) Tex Winter
    9) He was always a threat to split defenders and get around a third (even hanging in the air) to finish at the hoop
    8) John Paxson
    7) 1991
    6) Craig Hodges
    5) 1996
    4) Steve Kerr
    3) Scottie Pippen
    2) 1998
    And, finally, the number one thing that made Jordan the best closer…
    He could do what everyone else named in this article can do (and more)

  4. jb4820 - May 24, 2011 at 10:55 AM

    All comments on Dirk are premature. He has done this before in 2006 before tanking in the finals against the Heat. If he loses in the finals again to the Heat he is back to where he was at the start of this season with his window closing.

    • jjared1101 - May 24, 2011 at 11:06 AM

      Tanking? ….29pts and 15rebs in an elimination game is tanking? Lets keep in mind that it is a team game and it’s hard to tank a game by yourself. But if you want to regurgitate espn pundits, have at it.

  5. emeraldcityfan - May 24, 2011 at 1:04 PM

    Way to go Dallas! Seattle thanks you!

  6. delius1967 - May 24, 2011 at 6:26 PM

    Durant actually reminds me of the Nowitzki of 6-7 years ago. Not in his style, but in the weapons he has, and more importantly, the ones he doesn’t. If Durant was European (read: White) we would probably be calling him “soft” for the same reasons Dirk was called soft: he has no real post game, and if you bang him, he’ll start settling for long jumpers.

    Durant needs to learn how to play with his back to the basket, how to catch the ball 8-10 feet away and take on the defense. Right now, he plays more like a very tall point guard, preferring to get the ball beyond the arc and either beat his defender off the dribble or shoot a three-pointer. That’s classic Dirk, circa 2005. Nowitzki’s low-post game is a relatively recent development, as is his ability to absorb hits while pounding the ball toward the rim.

    Durant will learn these things. He’s too talented not to. It just takes time; ask Nowitzki.

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