May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:56 PM EDT
Rose underwent knee surgery in February.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:18 PM EDT
This is the opposite of a surprise.
Mar 30, 2015, 6:14 PM EDT
There were rumors he wanted the Sacramento GM job, but George Karl has the power there now.
Mar 30, 2015, 5:38 PM EDT
Also, is Willie Caulie-Stein a great fit next to DeMarcus Cousins?
Mar 30, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
Cavaliers center is a star
Mar 30, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
UNLV freshman likely headed for second round
Mar 30, 2015, 3:15 PM EDT
The top three are Golden State, Cleveland and San Antonio. Would you be shocked if any of them won the title?
StubHub sues Warriors, accuses Golden State of preventing StubHub-using fans from buying playoff tickets
Mar 30, 2015, 2:38 PM EDT
StubHub says Warriors permit resale through only Ticketmaster
Mar 30, 2015, 1:59 PM EDT
Rockets point guard to have surgery on wrist
Mar 30, 2015, 1:27 PM EDT
Phil Jackson disciple Craig Hodges now coaching Westchester Knicks
Mar 30, 2015, 12:49 PM EDT
Jordan made preseason debut at Washington High School, but at one point, it seemed Washington High alum Junior Bridgeman would be the big draw
Mar 30, 2015, 12:11 PM EDT
D.J. Augustin throws the alley-oop, and two Thunder players go for it. Westbrook won.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:33 AM EDT
Good decision to go pro, poor decision to end video how he did
Mar 30, 2015, 10:58 AM EDT
Nothing raises a team’s spirits like playing New York
Mar 30, 2015, 10:22 AM EDT
Jonas Jerebko thought his pump fake worked, but…
Mar 30, 2015, 9:45 AM EDT
Hunter hit biggest shot of NCAA tournament, backed it up with strong junior season
Mar 30, 2015, 9:08 AM EDT
Mullin has played prominent role in Vivek Ranadivé’s organization
Mar 30, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
The first and eight seeds are fairly set, after that the West is a jumbled mess.
Mar 30, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
The race for the eighth seed could go down to the final night.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:39 AM EDT
The Rockets are now the two seed in the West.
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