May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
Apr 25, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Milwaukee forced 26 Chicago turnovers, a season high.
Mark Cuban shouts at Adam Silver to complain about foul calls during Mavericks’ Game 3 loss to Rockets
Apr 25, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Silver was in attendance for Game 3 between the Mavericks and the Rockets.
Apr 25, 2015, 6:59 PM EDT
Nets now trail the Hawks 2-1 in the series.
Apr 25, 2015, 5:30 PM EDT
Apr 25, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle fined $25K for publicly criticizing officials after Game 3 loss to Rockets
Apr 25, 2015, 2:29 PM EDT
“The officials [have] got to get that stuff under control, because there’s too much physical stuff going on. Howard is throwing people all over the place,” Carlisle said.
Report: ‘No scenario’ where Kawhi Leonard will pursue offer sheets as a restricted free agent this summer
Apr 25, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Spurs and Leonard are a perfect match.
Mavericks coach Carlisle rips officials, claims ‘there’s too much physical stuff going on’ after Game 3 loss to Rockets
Apr 25, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Apr 25, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Pierce did the same thing to the Raptors a year ago when he was with the Nets.
Apr 25, 2015, 9:30 AM EDT
The Spurs are Kawhi Leonard’s team now.
Apr 25, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
These feel like Stephen Curry’s playoffs.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:28 AM EDT
Leonard was fantastic at both ends of the court.
Apr 25, 2015, 12:18 AM EDT
The Wizards are moving on. That’s the Truth.
Apr 24, 2015, 10:30 PM EDT
Dwight Howard grabbed 26 rebounds, too.
Apr 24, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
Portland, down 0-2 to Memphis, needs all the help it can get.
Apr 24, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
NBA continues its technological push.
Apr 24, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
Parker is going to finish his degree at Duke.
Apr 24, 2015, 6:45 PM EDT
The Warriors eventually won in overtime regardless.
Apr 24, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT
Looking past the first round to some of the more exciting later matchups to come.
Apr 24, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
The long-running rift continues.
- Bucks outwork Bulls, stay alive on Jerryd Bayless game-winner 0
- Nets use 18-0 second-half run to secure Game 3 victory over Hawks 5
- Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle fined $25K for publicly criticizing officials after Game 3 loss to Rockets 8
- PBT Extra: Stephen Curry starting to have his defining playoff moments 8
- Behind 32 points from Kawhi Leonard, Spurs rout Clippers to take 2-1 series lead 13
- The Truth (and Marcin Gortat) will set Washington free, up 3-0 on Toronto after win 8
- James Harden scores 42 points to lead Rockets to Game 3 win, 3-0 series lead over Mavericks 17
- Why can’t the Pelicans foul in a timely manner? 7