May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EST
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:46 PM EST
He walked off under his own power but did not return.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:33 PM EST
Rockets, Kings and Knicks also reportedly inquiring about Celtics point guard
Dec 17, 2014, 10:25 PM EST
In related news, Hornets got a ton of public funding to upgrade arena
Dec 17, 2014, 9:30 PM EST
Rapper dubs Kyle Lowry ‘baby-faced assassin’
Dec 17, 2014, 8:35 PM EST
Trail Blazers guard would be a perfect fit in Cleveland
Dec 17, 2014, 7:39 PM EST
The offers are not going to be big, will Stan Van Gundy eventually give in and take one?
Dec 17, 2014, 6:18 PM EST
He is more likely to be moved than Rondo.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:31 PM EST
There are no good answers for the Bucks, or for other rookies to reward.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:06 PM EST
More serious talks doesn’t mean a deal is near.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:03 PM EST
The Kings roster is poorly suited right now for the style the owner wants to play.
Dec 17, 2014, 3:12 PM EST
Blazers fans will get to see more Chris Kaman.
Dec 17, 2014, 2:30 PM EST
Portland also reportedly tried to trade for Monroe before he signed the one-year qualifying offer to stay in Detroit.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:50 PM EST
Former Baylor University center was expected to be drafted, but was diagnosed with a disease that prematurely ended his chances of playing in the NBA.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:10 PM EST
Wade has a reputation of being a flopper, and appeared to exaggerate the contact from the official.
Dec 17, 2014, 12:30 PM EST
He pities ‘Melo because a real competitor is suffering through a lot of losing.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:50 AM EST
Love is suffering from the dreaded flu-like symptoms.
Warriors’ Andre Iguodala hilariously mocks referee for not calling a blatant travel, picks up technical foul (VIDEO)
Dec 17, 2014, 11:10 AM EST
Iggy does the Travel Dance.
Dec 17, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
Peja was a three-time All-Star, and a member of the only good team Sacramento has had in its franchise history.
Dec 17, 2014, 9:50 AM EST
Durant joins Paul George as players who renounce the nonsensical report that emerged earlier in the season.
Dec 17, 2014, 9:09 AM EST
Prior relationships Jackson has with Kings brass may make this an obvious choice for Sacramento as the team searches for its next head coach.
- Report: Mavericks and Celtics in ‘substantive discussion’ about Rajon Rondo trade 7
- Report: Celtics now more willing to trade Rajon Rondo 12
- Tyson Chandler says he feels sorry for Carmelo Anthony 19
- Kevin Durant on idea stars wouldn’t want to play with Kobe Bryant: ‘That’s bulls—‘ 43
- Former Warriors coach Mark Jackson meets with Kings GM, DeMarcus Cousins after Tuesday night’s game 25
- PBT’s Tuesday Night NBA Winners/Losers: Grizzlies grind ends Warriors streak 12
- It’s official: Jabari Parker out for the season with torn ACL 22
- Grizzlies snap Warriors’ 16-game winning streak 4