Skip to content

NBA Draft Lottery lacks big payout this time around

May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT

NCAA Hampton Duke Basketball AP

We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.

Well, most years. This year, not so much.

This year the lottery has very little payout.

This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.

“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”

Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury.  Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):

When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.

Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).

After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.

Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.

Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.

Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.

So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.

Latest Posts
  1. Blake Griffin among actors for dramatic reading of “Space Jam” (VIDEO)

    Apr 18, 2014, 12:56 AM EDT

    Monstars space jam

    This is exactly what you’ve been waiting for — a dramatic reading of Space Jam including Blake Griffin and D’Andre Jordan.

  2. Son tweets Craig Sager has acute leukemia

    Apr 17, 2014, 11:18 PM EDT

    Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat - Game Five Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat - Game Five

    We may not see him on the sidelines of TNT games these playoffs.

  3. Report: Joel Anthony opting in with Celtics

    Apr 17, 2014, 9:38 PM EDT

    Los Angeles Lakers v Boston Celtics Getty Images

    Center has $3.8 million player option

  4. Likely top-10 pick Dante Exum signs with adidas

    Apr 17, 2014, 7:05 PM EDT

    Essendon Bombers Media Opportunity Getty Images

    Adidas rolls the dice on a young guard with potential. Not a bad business plan.

  5. Kentucky’s James Young, Duke’s Rodney Hood declare for NBA draft

    Apr 17, 2014, 5:57 PM EDT

    NCAA Men's Final Four - Championship Getty Images

    Both are likely first round picks in the teens or early 20s.

  6. The Al Jefferson Effect: Now that the Bobcats are playoff-bound, how they want their big man to help next

    Apr 17, 2014, 4:53 PM EDT

    Steve Clifford, Cody Zeller, Al Jefferson Steve Clifford, Cody Zeller, Al Jefferson

    What affect will Jefferson have on the development of Kemba Walker, Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller?

  7. Toronto puts together fantastic playoffs preview video

    Apr 17, 2014, 4:50 PM EDT

    Timberwolves Raptors Basketball AP

    Raptors fans are pumped for the playoffs.

  8. Carmelo Anthony: “I want to come back…I also want to win.”

    Apr 17, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT

    Carmelo Anthony AP

    It really comes down to this: Does he trust Phil Jackson and Knicks management to build a winner quickly?

  9. LeBron James, Heat top NBA jersey sales again

    Apr 17, 2014, 2:40 PM EDT

    Brooklyn Nets v Miami Heat Getty Images

    You put your money where your heart is, and your heart clearly follows LeBron James and the Heat.

  10. The incredible thing about Larry Drew

    Apr 17, 2014, 2:11 PM EDT

    Larry Drew Larry Drew

    Bucks didn’t win back-to-back games all season

  11. Kobe tells Lakers’ fans to “flush” last season, has been cleared to run, shoot, prepare for next season

    Apr 17, 2014, 1:33 PM EDT

    Toronto Raptors v Los Angeles Lakers Getty Images

    Kobe may be in France but he still had time to tweet Lakers fans and tell them things will be better next season.

  12. Duke’s Jabari Parker says he will enter NBA Draft

    Apr 17, 2014, 12:55 PM EDT

    Duke v Mercer Getty Images

    He is as high on some boards as No. 1, but likely goes No. 3. However no freshman near the top of this board will have a bigger immediate impact in the NBA — his offensive game is NBA ready.

  13. Report: Rick Adelman will not return as Timberwolves coach

    Apr 17, 2014, 12:10 PM EDT

    Rick Adelman Rick Adelman

    This both has been expected and is mutual, according to the buzz around the league.

  14. Report: Grant Hill not interested in becoming Pistons’ general manager

    Apr 17, 2014, 11:20 AM EDT

    BBVA Compass Rising Stars Challenge 2014 Getty Images

    Hill previously reported to be a candidate for a job

Featured video

Handing out NBA's postseason awards
Top 10 NBA Player Searches
  1. D. Williams (3747)
  2. D. Wade (3705)
  3. K. Love (3705)
  4. L. James (3680)
  5. S. Curry (3497)
  1. C. Anthony (3257)
  2. R. Rondo (3114)
  3. G. Dragic (3012)
  4. R. Westbrook (2982)
  5. K. Durant (2847)