May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
Aug 27, 2015, 8:15 PM EDT
They’re pretty sweet.
Aug 27, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
Sultan Kosem of Turkey is 8-foot-3.
Aug 27, 2015, 6:45 PM EDT
As an NBA League Pass junkie I’ll tell you why I’m happy — she’s good.
Aug 27, 2015, 5:51 PM EDT
If you’re keeping score at home, there are two shattered backboards on the list.
Aug 27, 2015, 5:06 PM EDT
The Cavaliers need to be patient with him.
Aug 27, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT
Chocolate Thunder remained an ambassador of the game.
Aug 27, 2015, 3:31 PM EDT
He probably will land on a roster somewhere. Eventually.
Aug 27, 2015, 2:45 PM EDT
This is a blow to France, but they remain one of the deepest teams at EuroBasket and one of the favorites.
Aug 27, 2015, 1:54 PM EDT
Houston’s salary cap picture changed before the deal got inked.
Aug 27, 2015, 1:12 PM EDT
Gregg Popovich is considered the frontrunner.
Aug 27, 2015, 11:54 AM EDT
Stan Van Gundy wants to play Brandon Jennings and Stephen Jackson together at times.
Aug 27, 2015, 11:04 AM EDT
The Bulls comment is basically “no comment.”
Aug 27, 2015, 9:15 AM EDT
At this point in his career Davis is the “break glass in case of emergency” big.
Aug 27, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
Wiggins is playing well for Canada.
Aug 27, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
LeBron turned a $4.4 million profit.
Aug 27, 2015, 12:58 AM EDT
There is no criminal report filed in this case. Rose nor his attorney have yet to comment on the report or suit.
Aug 26, 2015, 11:25 PM EDT
Was there ever a more Shakespearean NBA drama than Shaq/Kobe?
Aug 26, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
We’ve got video of Blake Griffin pretending to be in the Harlem Globetrotters.
Aug 26, 2015, 6:59 PM EDT
D’Angelo, just text Kobe and say you want to work out with him, he’ll likely text back to come over right now.
Aug 26, 2015, 5:55 PM EDT
The questions about Miami’s front line are not about skill but health.
- Report: Kyrie Irving likely not back opening night, could be out until January 7
- Legendary Sixer, backboard-shattering dunker Darryl Dawkins dies at 58 10
- After Rio Olympics next summer, who takes over at Team USA coach? 5
- Kobe, Shaq discuss regrets over feud that ended their Lakers era 46
- NBA fines Clippers for attempting to circumvent salary cap with DeAndre Jordan 10
- The most overlooked – and maybe most significant – reason Carmelo Anthony won’t waive his no-trade clause this season 17
- Phil Jackson is optimistic about Knicks coming season, except the start 7
- Report: Lakers considering bringing back Metta World Peace 33