May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
Jul 22, 2014, 1:42 PM EDT
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High school standout Emmanuel Mudiay skips college for China payday. You’ll see more of this if age limit goes up.
Jul 22, 2014, 1:01 PM EDT
If the age limit jumps to 20 more players will choose getting paid over college.
Jul 22, 2014, 12:27 PM EDT
Wizards take a more subtle approach than some of the others we’ve seen.
Jul 22, 2014, 11:49 AM EDT
Rookies Doug McDermott and Marcus Smart make the cut to train with the National Team in Vegas.
Jul 22, 2014, 11:13 AM EDT
Vujacic is known for his time with the Lakers, and hasn’t played meaningful minutes since 2011.
Jul 22, 2014, 10:37 AM EDT
Kings go nuts after winning Summer League championship.
Jul 22, 2014, 9:59 AM EDT
Restricted free agent remains unsigned.
Jul 22, 2014, 9:20 AM EDT
Seattle won 1979 title before team moved to Oklahoma City
Jul 22, 2014, 8:42 AM EDT
The list includes Gorgui Dieng and Donatas Montiejunas.
Jul 22, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Carter denies LeBron’s advisors forced him back to Cleveland
Jul 22, 2014, 1:24 AM EDT
Ray McCallum dropped 29 and even threw in a Jordan shrug.
Jul 22, 2014, 12:01 AM EDT
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Jul 21, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
Hummel gets second NBA deal after spending season in Spain
Jul 21, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
Former Colorado point guard out with ACL tear
Jul 21, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
Jazz point guard will help national team prepare for World Cup this summer
Donald Sterling reportedly meets with Steve Ballmer, which might accelerate Clippers sale (or do the complete opposite)
Jul 21, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Donald Sterling also reportedly met with Shelly Sterling for three hours
Jul 21, 2014, 6:54 PM EDT
The Suns are going to be a League Pass favorite next season.
Jul 21, 2014, 6:22 PM EDT
Cooper, who coaches WNBA’s Atlanta Dream, expected to make full recovery
Jul 21, 2014, 5:29 PM EDT
Celtics fans are asking “why?” Good question.
Jul 21, 2014, 4:58 PM EDT
You doubted Kobe?
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