May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
Sep 21, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
Nobody expects much from the Timberwolves or Wiggins this season, outside of a few highlight dunks.
Sep 21, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
A team is going to have to pay him at least $2 million a year to make it worth his while.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Neither player made this summer’s final 12-man roster.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Lakers president believes Bryant is ready after he missed all but six games last season due to injury.
Sep 21, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Sep 20, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
Rubio may not like it, but Minnesota can retain his rights in restricted free agency next summer.
Sep 20, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT
Big man from Mexico preferred to remain in the NBA, but took the payday to return overseas.
Sep 20, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Watch it all the way through.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
With two years left in the NBA, Bryant has an eye on life after basketball.
Sep 20, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
A previous report said Gibson was less than thrilled with remaining a reserve.
Sep 20, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
Blatche can play, but the NBA offers simply weren’t there.
Sep 20, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
10-story-high banner will return after a similar one was taken down when James left in 2010.
Sep 20, 2014, 12:28 PM EDT
Sessions could start at point guard for Sacramento.
Sep 20, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Unsurprisingly, Curry supports his backcourt mate 100 percent.
Sep 20, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
He had toe surgery in mid-August.
Sep 20, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
This is what you want out of these guys.
Tyson Chandler says negative comments questioning his impact on chemistry with Knicks were ‘the ultimate shock’
Sep 19, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
Chandler, now with Dallas, fires back at the Knicks.
Sep 19, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
Chapman played four years for the Suns, and is facing charges in Scottsdale, AZ.
Sep 19, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
Must-read quote from Bogut on how he does NOT want to be perceived.
- Timberwolves ‘not necessarily in a rush’ to agree to contract extension with Ricky Rubio 13
- Andray Blatche signs deal to play in China next season 8
- Is Klay Thompson the best two-way shooting guard? Stephen Curry would ‘put him up against anybody.’ 17
- UPDATED Report: Timberwolves make push for Eric Bledsoe, Suns not interested in sign-and-trade talks 39
- LeBron James unveils latest signature shoe from Nike: The LEBRON 12 12
- ProBasketballTalk 2014-15 Preview: Toronto Raptors 10
- Dwyane Wade credits David Stern’s dress code for improving his style 18
- Kevin Durant has grown close with Karl Malone 15