Skip to content

NBA Draft Lottery lacks big payout this time around

May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT

NCAA Hampton Duke Basketball AP

We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.

Well, most years. This year, not so much.

This year the lottery has very little payout.

This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.

“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”

Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury.  Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):

When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.

Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).

After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.

Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.

Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.

Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.

So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.

Latest Posts
  1. Report: Joe Johnson “pumped” that Deron Williams bought out by Nets

    Jul 31, 2015, 12:52 PM EDT

    joe johnson nets sleeved alternates

    Johnson makes $24.9 million, but this is the last year of his contract.

  2. Report: Knicks to sign Thanasis Antetokounmpo

    Jul 31, 2015, 12:47 PM EDT

    20141220 Westchester Knicks at Maine Red Claws Getty Images

    New York drafted Giannis Antetokounmpo’s brother last year

  3. Report: 76ers second-rounder J.P. Tokoto won’t sign with Philadelphia

    Jul 31, 2015, 10:23 AM EDT

    Houston Rockets v Philadelphia 76ers Getty Images

    No. 58 pick will reportedly head overseas or to D-League

  4. Knicks waive Ricky Ledo

    Jul 31, 2015, 9:21 AM EDT

    Ricky Ledo AP

    Guard didn’t show much in short stint in New York

  5. NBA lands in Africa trying to put down roots, which is all about youth programs, infrastructure

    Jul 31, 2015, 8:35 AM EDT

    cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjjotqwyyznptu5nzjmmwjlotdhnzrhn2iwytixngrhnwi2yzqwyjzk AP

    “One thing to come out of this will be more camps, more clinics, more games, more youth competition, and from that you get into infrastructure, and building more courts.” —Masai Ujiri, Raptors GM and native Nigerian

  6. Mark Cuban says trading for Rajon Rondo was tough call, “came down to a coin flip”

    Jul 31, 2015, 7:59 AM EDT

    Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks Getty Images

    “And the coin flip was as much about, is there going to be anything else that we could do? Because we knew we had to do something.” —Mark Cuban on trading for Rajon Rondo.

  7. Pau Gasol on Fred Hoiberg: “I think we’ll play with a better flow offensively”

    Jul 30, 2015, 11:30 PM EDT

    Pau Gasol Pau Gasol

    Hoiberg has a much stronger offensive reputation than Tom Thibodeau.

  8. Blazers waive Brendan Haywood after acquiring him from Cavs

    Jul 30, 2015, 10:43 PM EDT

    Brendan Haywood, Michael Beasley Brendan Haywood, Michael Beasley

    Portland received Mike Miller and two second-round picks in addition to Haywood.

  9. Report: Kings expected to hire Nancy Lieberman as assistant coach

    Jul 30, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT

    Austin Toros v Texas Legends Austin Toros v Texas Legends

    Lieberman would be the second female assistant coach, after Becky Hammon

  10. Report: Hawks’ Mike Scott arrested for felony drug possession

    Jul 30, 2015, 9:15 PM EDT

    Mike Scott Mike Scott

    Scott was charged with possession of marijuana and MDMA.

  11. Josh Smith clarifies “harder on me” comments in Players Tribune essay

    Jul 30, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT

    Los Angeles Clippers Introduce Free Agent Signings Los Angeles Clippers Introduce Free Agent Signings

    Smith says he was talking more about family stability than money in his controversial comments.

  12. Tony Parker says for Spurs this is “last crack at it to try to win it all”

    Jul 30, 2015, 5:40 PM EDT

    Tony Parker, Tim Duncan Tony Parker, Tim Duncan

    In what will be the last year for Duncan and Manu Ginobili, not to mention David West’s long career, there will be plenty of desperation and energy in San Antonio.

  13. Flip Saunders: Kevin Garnett will start for Timberwolves

    Jul 30, 2015, 3:25 PM EDT

    Kevin Garnett AP

    Will Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Pekovic or Gorgui Dieng start beside him?

  14. Flip Saunders still maintains he planned to keep Kevin Love until Andrew Wiggins offer

    Jul 30, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT

    2013 NBA Draft Lottery Getty Images

    Timberwolves apparently weren’t just going to trade Love for whatever they could get

Top 10 NBA Player Searches
  1. K. Bryant (2697)
  2. B. Haywood (2264)
  3. I. Thomas (2140)
  4. A. Randolph (1859)
  5. L. James (1846)