May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
Apr 25, 2014, 12:16 AM EDT
Memphis leads the series 2-1 and have game 4 in their place Saturday.
Apr 24, 2014, 11:06 PM EDT
Roy Hibbert is benched in the fourth quarter as Atlanta gets the job done once again.
Apr 24, 2014, 10:05 PM EDT
When this goes in you know its your night.
Apr 24, 2014, 9:43 PM EDT
It’s real, and it’s spectacular.
Apr 24, 2014, 8:44 PM EDT
Westbrook’s level of annoyance is impressive.
Apr 24, 2014, 7:45 PM EDT
This is just interesting to watch.
Apr 24, 2014, 5:46 PM EDT
Sorry KD, but through two games Allen has been the MVP of this series.
Apr 24, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
No suspension for McRoberts. Somehow.
Apr 24, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT
Jabari Parker says he passed more than Carmelo because he had a better team to pass to.
Apr 24, 2014, 3:17 PM EDT
He wants Steph Curry money, but he’ll likely get more like $7 million a year.
Apr 24, 2014, 2:32 PM EDT
Gasol basically wants D’Antoni gone, but even then he likely moves on.
Apr 24, 2014, 1:56 PM EDT
Oscar Robertson thinks ‘Melo should get out of Dodge (and go to Houston).
Apr 24, 2014, 1:22 PM EDT
Kevin Pritchard tweets message from Pacers president
Apr 24, 2014, 12:44 PM EDT
Less-heralded Damien Inglis declares, too
Apr 24, 2014, 12:01 PM EDT
He will not be getting a baseball contract soon.
Apr 24, 2014, 11:26 AM EDT
Dwyane Wade does writeup on Serena Williams
Apr 24, 2014, 10:52 AM EDT
Harden is frustrated. He should be, shooting under 30 percent for two games.
Apr 24, 2014, 10:19 AM EDT
Grizzlies guard gets Joe Dumars Trophy over Jeff Green, Channing Frye, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard and Mike Dunleavy
Apr 24, 2014, 9:24 AM EDT
Trail Blazers forward is averaging 44.5 points trhough two games
- Memphis’ defense, discipline propel them past Thunder in overtime lead series 2-1 0
- Hawks take a 2-1 series lead over top-seeded Pacers 11
- Josh McRoberts fined $20,000 for forearm foul to LeBron’s throat 44
- Oscar Robertson says if he were Carmelo Anthony “I would leave today” 49
- Larry Bird, through Pacers general manager, says Frank Vogel’s job is safe 11