May 17, 2011, 12:48 PM EDT
We love the NBA Draft Lottery because it’s like franchise roulette — random luck and the bounce of some balls will determine the future of a franchise, potentially setting some up for years to come.
Well, most years. This year, not so much.
This year the lottery has very little payout.
This is a down draft year where the top pick — Duke’s Kyrie Irving almost certainly — has question marks, then after him and Arizona’s Derrick Williams things drop off fast. Some years winning the lottery or even getting in the top three means a franchise gets a key building block. But look what Marc Spears of Yahoo was told.
“It’s horrendous,” (one Western Conference general manager) said. “Every year we always talk about how bad the draft is. This year we really mean it.”
Irving is going to be good, just how good is the question. It’s a little hard to judge because he missed most of his one season at Duke due to a toe injury. Here is what friend of this site David Thorpe — who works with a number of professional players and prospects — wrote this at ESPN (behind their insider pay wall):
When watching Irving on tape, I see a player who looks like Brandon Roy with better natural playmaking skills. I mean the All-Star Roy with healthy knees, not the guy who is fighting his knees most nights and can’t move anywhere close to the way he used to on every possession. A healthy Roy used his strong body, great balance and crafty ball-handling to create shots for himself and others. He was a solid perimeter shooter and a devastating mid-range guy, with a true talent for finishing in the paint but away from the rim.
Pretty much every team could use a Roy, but that is Irving’s high end. He is not an explosive guy like John Wall last year, or Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. And remember Roy fell to six (although in a draft where in hindsight only LaMarcus Aldridge is a guy that should have been taken in front of him, and recall that Andrea Bargnani was the top pick).
After Irving you get Williams, but he is considered a bit of a tweener at the forward spot — too small to be a four but they are not sure he can be a three.
Then who knows? Maybe the third choice is Turkish center (and Kentucky recruit who couldn’t play because he’d been a pro back home) Enes Kanter. But he didn’t play anywhere organized ball last year. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas gets mentioned. DraftExpress has Kemba Walker third. But there is no consensus.
Last year the New Jersey Nets were able to get Derrick Favors with the third pick, then trade him as the core part of a package to get Deron Williams. There will be none of that this time around. The pickings are much more slim.
Usually the motto among GMs is to draft the best player available. You need talent to win, you can worry about fit as you go. But this year, with the talent quickly reduced to guys you hope can be role players, more teams will draft to fit need first. At least after the first couple of picks.
So enjoy the lottery. Some team is going to get a very good player tonight. But if your team doesn’t win, time to start tamping down those expectations.
May 27, 2015, 3:59 PM EDT
May 27, 2015, 3:23 PM EDT
Free agents will still come to the Lakers, but their pool may be smaller than some other teams because of Kobe.
May 27, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
There were plenty of rumors to the contrary.
May 27, 2015, 1:50 PM EDT
Suns don’t need any more young players.
May 27, 2015, 1:10 PM EDT
Plenty has changed since LeBron re-joined the Cavaliers last summer.
May 27, 2015, 12:30 PM EDT
Hawks, too, have some decisions to make this summer.
May 27, 2015, 11:50 AM EDT
The offers won’t be as strong as they were in December.
Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak: ‘Anywhere from 4-8 players could be in consideration’ for No. 2 pick in NBA Draft
May 27, 2015, 11:10 AM EDT
Eight seems like too many, but Kupchak has proven that he knows what he’s doing.
May 27, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
Finals begin June 4; complete schedule enclosed.
May 27, 2015, 9:50 AM EDT
A nice moment for the Cavaliers.
May 27, 2015, 9:10 AM EDT
LeBron strikes the iconic Dunkman pose.
May 27, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
They’re still tight.
May 27, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Curry and this Warriors team are not going to crumble like the Clippers did.
May 27, 2015, 2:02 AM EDT
J.R. Smith on the national stage of the Finals is going to be so much fun.
May 27, 2015, 1:25 AM EDT
The Hawks have an excellent foundation to build on.
May 26, 2015, 11:07 PM EDT
This one was over early.
May 26, 2015, 10:30 PM EDT
Injury issues continue to pile up as Atlanta is on the verge of elimination.
Storms in Houston forced Dwight Howard to remain at arena with fans until 2:30AM after Game 4 win over Warriors
May 26, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT
Severe flooding in the area had fans — and at least one player — stranded.
May 26, 2015, 8:09 PM EDT
May 26, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Inconsistent ruling, but a good one for the Rockets.
- Bucks’ Jared Dudley: “Most guys don’t want to play with Kobe” 18
- PBT Extra: Expect a healthy Stephen Curry for Game 5… sorry Houston 2
- Hawks’ excellent season shouldn’t be discredited because of playoff exit 24
- Cavaliers complete sweep of Hawks, advance to NBA Finals 82
- Kyrie Irving back in Cavaliers lineup for Game 4 vs. Hawks 5
- NBA: No Game 5 suspension for Dwight Howard, flagrant-1 for hit on Andrew Bogut stands as called 23
- Report: Kyle Korver to have surgery on his ankle 5
- PBT Podcast: We’re back (finally), talking Curry, Harden, and what should be a Flagrant Foul 0