May 10, 2011, 3:36 PM EDT
No secrets, no surprise adjustments at this point. We know how Game 5 in Chicago Tuesday night is going to go down. Kind of.
Derrick Rose is going to take at least 27 shots (he has taken at least that many in every game this series) despite the Hawks trapping him and doing everything they can to get the ball out of his hands and contest those looks. If he converts at even a solid percentage, the Bulls will thrive.
The Bulls will defend fiercely. The Hawks will either still attack, have players cutting off the ball and make passes leading to efficient points in the paint, or they will settle for jumpers and isolation that plays into the Bulls hands.
The game will be low scoring, but in the end one team will do a better job establishing its offensive will, of executing, and they will be up 3-2 in this series.
The Hawks have found some plays that work — the one that got Al Horford a wide-open dunk in the lane late in the Hawks Game 4 win was no accident. The Hawks have run that a few times, exposing Joakim Noah hedging out too far on a pin-down screen, as Sebastian Pruiti showed at NBA playbook. The Hawks, when they move off the ball and pass like this are an offensive force even the Bulls cannot stop. The problem is that when faced with the Bulls pressure they are not consistent.
The Bulls have had success when they get points from their bench — Kyle Korver had a fantastic Game 3, then couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat in Game 4. Role players tend to play better at home, the Bulls are going to need that. They need a lot of Luol Deng.
The Hawks will need another big game out of Josh Smith. That means him attacking the rim, making good passes. The fact is when Jason Collins is in, moving Al Horford to the four and Smith to the three, their offense ran much better. The matchups were a challenge for Chicago. Look for more o that in Game 5.
This series is hard to predict because both teams have played fantastic basketball and just laid an egg the next game. You’d like to think with all that is on the line in Game 5 both will really bring it. I’d also like to think cheeseburgers aren’t fattening. Who knows what we will see.
But it’s going to be interesting. And hopefully intense.