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NBA Preview: Denver Nuggets

Oct 7, 2010, 12:51 PM EST

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Last season: 53-29, tied them for the four seed in the West, but without George Karl on the sidelines (due to cancer treatments) they got bumped off in six games by a Mehmet Okur-less Jazz team.

Head Coach: George Karl is back after missing the second half of last season ad the playoffs battling throat cancer. There is nobody in the league we are all happier to see back and working than him.

Key Departures: Carmelo Anthony… wait not yet. Soon the court just Johan Petro and Joey Graham, which are not really that big a loss.

Off the court the changes were big — gone are Mark Warkentien and Rex Chapman, who were the decision makers. In their place comes Masai Ujiri. But the real power is Josh Kronke, the former Missouri basketball player and son of current owner Stan Kronke. Stan is buying the St. Louis Rams and has to sell the Nuggets, so Josh will get them. Josh worked his way up through the Nuggets front office and he (along with advisor Bret Bearup) should be the ultimate decision maker for this franchise.

Key Additions: Al Harrington, constant swirling trade rumors

Best case scenario: Carmelo Anthony is not traded, has a huge season, the Nuggets stay healthy and they return to the Western Conference finals, where they were a couple years ago. Karl has said the “final four” is the goal, and we’re going to assume he didn’t mean the Nuggets were being relegated to the NCAA.

For that to happen: Carmelo Anthony has to not only stay in Denver, it situation needs to stop being a distraction. Meaning he needs to sign the extension and get his teammates to rally around him for another big run.

If Anthony did that, Denver has the talent to be a force once they get Kenyon Martin back healthy later this season. This is a good, consistent roster. Karl can mold them. Harrington will be a boost up front, Billups may be getting up there but he still has plenty of game. There are good young players like Ty Lawson to add some energy. You can see how a run comes together with this unit…

Not going to happen. Never say never, but Anthony signing that extension and not being a distraction seems like a crazy long shot right now.

And if Anthony is not going to be back — how do you predict how good this team is? With him in house and focused the Nuggets are a team that wins in the low 50s in games, that is on that second tier in the West. Final four could happen. But is Anthony going to sign an extension for a maybe final four? Seems he is intent on pushing his way out.

The real question is how the Nuggets front office decides to go about a trade. The reports are now they are pushing in trade talks for players that will keep them in the playoffs now as well as picks and young players to rebuild with. Basically the best of both worlds – getting that is about as likely as Anthony signing his extension.

The smart move seems to be to trade Anthony for good young players and picks, then do the same with Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin and Nene. Rebuild from the ground up. If handled right there would be a stockpile of players and picks and the rebuilding would be off to a fast start.

You can’t rebuild on the fly, rebuild without a huge drop-off, unless you are a team willing to spend well over the luxury tax to do it. Denver is not that market.

More likely the Nuggets will: Be disappointing. To use the words of PBT’s own Rob Mahoney, one way or another it will likely be disappointing.

They probably trade Anthony, followed by a trade of Billups at least. They will get some players back — this is Anthony, he’s a big chip — but essentially the Nuggets will at some point this season decide they have to get something for Anthony so they don’t end up like Cleveland or Toronto.

Prediction: 41-41. But that is a wild guess. If the core stays together all season they win 50, if they trade Anthony before the season starts it could be more like 30 wins. Who knows? So we split the difference.

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