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NBA Season Preview: Orlando Magic

Sep 28, 2010, 1:08 PM EST

Thumbnail image for Jnelson_Dhoward.jpgLast season: 59-23, the second seed in the East. In the playoffs they Magic swept past the Bobcats and Hawks before running into the buzz saw that was the Celtics and losing in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy, one of the best going and probably funnier than his brother.

Key Departures: Matt Barnes, which will not be a big loss unless the Magic have to face him and the Lakers in the finals, and he comes with a chip on his shoulder.

Key Additions: The biggest move was bringing back JJ Redick, matching and offer from the Chicago Bulls. Redick is a great fit within the Magic system and the perfect counterweight on the days that Vince Carter goes Toronto Vince on the team.

Chris Duhon comes in as the primary backup for Jameer Nelson and is much better fit here than he was in the Mike D’Antoni system in New York. Duhon is a solid defender and hit 36.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season. It’s a good role for him.

Quentin Richardson replaces Barnes and is a better fit in this system — he is a fantastic spot-up shooter. More than half his shots came that way last season and he scored an impressive 1.15 points per shot attempt, and shot 42 percent from three. Van Gundy is going to love him.

Best case scenario: NBA champions. They are in the elite tier of the NBA, it’s only a matter of beating out the others also there — Miami, Boston and the Lakers. Oh, just that….

For that to happen: Orlando has to be better than last year — and last season they have the best regular season point differential in the league — and better than a couple years ago. The Lakers have gotten better, Boston has gotten better, the Heat will be the Heat. There is no easy path to the ring.

Specifically, the Magic need to be better on offense. The defense will again be at or near the top of the league. And last season the Magic were near the top of the league if offensive efficiency (depends on the way you measure it, Basketball-Reference has them fourth, Hoopdata second). But it didn’t feel consistent.

Dwight Howard shot 61.2 percent last year, an insanely high number, but he saw his touches in the offense go down (two fewer shots per game than the season before). Meanwhile, more shots went to an inconsistent core around him of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis. None of them were bad, but there were nights when the Magic offense just didn’t fire.

Howard again has to be the focus of the offense, and he spent the summer working with Hakeem Olajuwon to round out his game. Howard takes unfair criticism for not having a jumpshot, but he remains a very efficient scorer. He does have moves around the rim, and the ones he has he knocks down the shot.

Simply put, the Magic is Howard’s show. There will be nights Carter or Nelson can win the game, but the Magic offense has been more efficient when Howard gets touches. He needs more of them.

More likely the Magic will: Be right in the thick of things, but is that enough to get out of the East? Or past the Lakers? A lot will depend on health — of the Magic and other the other top teams — and seedings. Boston could blow off the end of the regular season again to get healthy, and if so the team that can avoid playing them the longest has the easier path.

The Magic may have the best roster to beat the Heat. Miami is insanely good at the two, three and four — if you beat them it will be by exploiting them at the point guard and center spots. I can see a playoff series where the Magic will run the Nelson/Howard pick-and-roll every time down, daring Bosh to help off Rashard Lewis or Wade off Redick. (Matt Barnes used to be the guy you helped off of, do that now and Richardson makes you pay.) Maybe the Heat can adjust, maybe they can just overwhelm, but don’t think they can just roll the Magic. That would be a great series.

The Magic did not make many roster changes, nor should they have (unless an amazing opportunity fell in their lap). They went to the finals two seasons ago. The second half of last season they were the best team in basketball, up until they ran into the playoff buzz saw that was the Celtics. This team is good, this team is on the edge of winning it all. You don’t mess with that much.

They Magic will be one of the best regular season teams in the league, no doubt. The question is will they hone their game enough during the season to take the next step in the playoffs

Prediction: 59 wins, again which will get them the two seed again (the Heat may be vulnerable in the playoffs, but they will be regular season beasts). Then Orlando’s real work starts.

  1. Anonymous - Sep 28, 2010 at 1:38 PM

    MY GOD, MAN!! Try predicting something different. Seriously. These guys will fall off a little bit, 55 wins.

  2. Drew - Sep 28, 2010 at 3:24 PM

    I agree, I think Orlando takes a small step back. They won 59 games last year in a less competitive conference. The Bulls, Heat, Celtics, and Bucks are all better. I expect them to slip a few games, but still grab the #2 seed and lose in the second round of the playoffs.

  3. Zachariah Blott - Sep 28, 2010 at 4:05 PM

    Here’s an analysis of how each Southeast Division team did in the summer with links to other divisions.
    http://www.hoopskarma.com/hk/2010/9/28/offseason-team-grades-southeast-division.html

  4. Bob - Sep 29, 2010 at 11:01 AM

    While the Bulls, Celtics and Heat improved, in my opinion the Magic stayed about the same. Lewis, Carter and Nelson all will have some good games but for the most part will continue to be inconsistent and play very average, at best, defense. The local media only seem to remember their few good games. As to the draft, the Magic bombed as usual due GM Smith’s inability to evaluate potential NBA talent of college players. The Magic has probably peaked and is on the slide with this core of players. The only ones having some possible upside are Howard, Redick and Anderson. VG is a good coach but not much of a motivator. Howard needs to quit whining and getting dumb technical fouls–this would improve his game.

  5. Drew - Sep 29, 2010 at 3:13 PM

    I agree with this assessment. They peaked in 2009. What Orlando really lacked was leadership last year. Duhon provides some of that, but he’s also a second unit guy. Howard’s constant whining sets a bad example for his teamates and carries over into their play. Lewis, Carter, Nelson, and Howard are all guys who respond well to leaders but aren’t themselves natural leaders. They will remain good, but repeating last year’s win total? I don’t see it.

  6. Analyst - Sep 30, 2010 at 5:15 PM

    “The Bulls, Heat, Celtics, and Bucks are all better.”
    LOL
    No.

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