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NBA Season Preview: The Indiana Pacers

Sep 21, 2010, 12:24 PM EDT

96271311.jpg.7473_crop_340x234.jpgLast season: The Pacers went 32-50, which puts them a step above the downright tragedy of the Nets, Timberwolves, and even the Wizards, but still among some pretty miserable company.

Head Coach: Jim O’Brien will again have the Pacers running (they were the second fastest team in the NBA last season), running, running. This time, however, his system has the benefit of a more gifted point guard.

Key Departures: Troy Murphy, Earl Watson, and Luther Head, though T.J. Ford isn’t far behind them.

Key Additions: Darren Collison, Paul George, hopefully a healthier Tyler Hansbrough, Lance Stephenson, Lance Stephenson’s rap sheet, and possibly Magnum Rolle (an unsigned second round pick).

Best case scenario:
The Pacers improve by leaps and bounds with Darren Collison running point, and mount an improbable surge for the East’s final playoff spot that ultimately falls short.

For that to happen: The aforementioned Collison needs to be just as good as (actually, probably better than) advertised. He made the most of an opportunity in New Orleans, but Collison is the lovable backup/injury replacement no more. This is his team to run, and though Collison showed his maturity as both a player and a person last season, that’s a lot to hinge on a second-year point guard.

However, the Pacers’ best-case outcome relies on factors stretching well beyond Collison. He remains a vital to Indiana’s improvement, but the loss of Troy Murphy is exactly the kind of understated move that could end up docking the Pacers a handful of wins. Replacing Murphy will be some combination of Danny Granger (playing out of position), Tyler Hansbrough, and Josh McRoberts. That’s troubling.

Murphy was second on the team in three-pointers made, second in three-point shooting percentage, and tops among the Pacers in rebounding by a huge margin. Don’t underestimate the impact of the first two (particularly since Indiana was actually a below-average three-point shooting team last season, in spite of their run-and-gun reputation), but it’s Murphy’s rebounding that could be missed most. Hansbrough showed a knack for grabbing the stray board during his abbreviated rookie year, but it remains to be seen whether he can do so against first-string competition.

That kind of uncertainty is worrisome for a squad that was already 29th in the league in offensive rebounding rate, and 22nd in defensive rebounding rate. Indiana was so worried about pushing the pace last season that they forgot the ball altogether, and I’m not sure that’s likely to change given the acquisitions made. If it does, however, it’ll be a credit to Hansbrough, McRoberts, a grown-up Roy Hibbert, and probably Jeff Foster.

More likely the Pacers will: Streak up the court while puttering along. Indiana has made some serious moves for the future, but this roster is obviously incomplete.

We already know what to expect from Danny Granger, who will likely see a slight bump in his overall production/efficiency, even if he’s more or less the same player he was last year. Guys like Collison just have that effect on people. Or really, maybe it’s that guys like T.J. Ford and Earl Watson have that effect on people. Granger will benefit from having a better distributor running the show, even if his game won’t be notably more diverse or explosive than before. ‘He is who he is,’ as they say, and honestly, that’s just fine.

However, talented though Granger and Collison both may be, it’s Indy’s other rotational holes that stand as a bother. Plenty of people are expecting Roy Hibbert to take a great leap forward, but he may just be content to clunk around in his space boots on the launchpad. His per-minute numbers from year one to year two were nearly identical — fairly strong, mind you, if still not indicating much overall improvement — but Hibbert continues to work against himself by racking up fouls.

Per 36 minutes, Hibbert averaged 16.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks last year. Not too shabby, right? Here’s the thing: Hibbert only actually played 36 minutes in a game three times in the entire season, despite starting in 69 games. Hibbert has had his chances, but a push in the post here and a late rotation there have sandbagged him.

Brandon Rush is solid. Paul George is promising. Dahntay Jones is…still pretty surprising, honestly. The Pacers have talent, it’s just of the complementary variety and a little on the green side. 

Prediction: 35 wins. Darren Collison will be this team’s clean, well-lighted place. He’s the type of player through which to run O’Brien’s offense, and Indiana, who has been a bit overrated on that end of the court due to it being a supposed stylistic strength, may actually have a competent attack once again.

Of course, I’m not exactly sure who’s going to be playing much defense at the 4, who’s going to be grabbing the boards, and where the Pacers’ perimeter shooting is going to come from, but hey, these things happen with teams on the mend. Even teams that have been on the mend for the last four seasons.

As long as Indiana is fine with another year of development, a Pacers squad with a bit more order is a proper start.

  1. Dahntay Jones - Sep 21, 2010 at 1:50 PM

    Pacers should trade some of their expirings to the Hawks for Josh Smith. That way they will have money to get Al Horford back after his contract is up.

  2. Cole F. - Sep 23, 2010 at 7:31 PM

    “Brandon Rush is solid.” — wow don’t hear that very often.. but true..

  3. Whatever - Sep 23, 2010 at 8:23 PM

    Briefly…you misdiagnose Indy’s past issues terribly. Being rid of Troy Murphy, despite his seemingly alluring numbers, will help this team. Indy will take the sixth or seventh seed in the Eastern Conference and win 44 games or more. Remember this post jerky!

  4. SFA51 - Sep 24, 2010 at 11:47 AM

    If Collison is as good (notice I didn’t say “better”) as advertised, and Roy Hibbert continues to improve at the same pace (which is probable, oweing to his off-season regimine and the presence of Collison)then Indy will win 40+ games and contend for a playoff spot. However, if there’s a single hiccup along the way, the Pacers actually take a step backward during this adjustment year. Btw, Jim O’Brien doesn’t help much either.

  5. SFA51 - Oct 2, 2010 at 10:25 AM

    The news around Indy is good regarding Mike Dunleavy and A.J. Price’s health. Price is well ahead of schedule and should be ready for training camp. Dunleavy’s knee is said to be pain-free and much stronger. Full participation by these two (especially MD) can’t help but improve the team’s record. Of course they (and others) must stay healthy for the team to improve, but there’s reason to hope for the Pacers. If all goes well (and Indy is due for some good fortune), the Pacers will win 40 games & make the playoffs. Look for Roy Hibbert to emerge as a force inside too…

  6. SFA51 - Oct 2, 2010 at 10:28 AM

    The news around Indy is good regarding Mike Dunleavy and A.J. Price’s health. Price is well ahead of schedule and should be ready for training camp. Dunleavy’s knee is said to be pain-free and much stronger. Full participation by these two (especially MD) can’t help but improve the team’s record. Of course they (and others) must stay healthy for the team to improve, but there’s reason to hope for the Pacers. If all goes well (and Indy is due for some good fortune), the Pacers will win 40 games & make the playoffs. Look for Roy Hibbert to emerge as a force inside too…

  7. SFA51 - Oct 2, 2010 at 10:29 AM

    The news around Indy is good regarding Mike Dunleavy and A.J. Price’s health. Price is well ahead of schedule and should be ready for training camp. Dunleavy’s knee is said to be pain-free and much stronger. Full participation by these two (especially MD) can’t help but improve the team’s record. Of course they (and others) must stay healthy for the team to improve, but there’s reason to hope for the Pacers. If all goes well (and Indy is due for some good fortune), the Pacers will win 40 games & make the playoffs. Look for Roy Hibbert to emerge as a force inside too…

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