May 28, 2010, 5:53 PM EDT
Man is it going to be fun to watch what happens inside the paint tonight tonight. Both as a fan of basketball and MMA — because there is going to be some banging.
Dwight Howard and Kendrick Perkins are going to go at it inside, technicals be damned. Big Baby is back from his injury and ready to rock. You know Sheed will be ready to go, game time decision or not. Celtics fans want blood; Celtics players are going to stand their ground. Howard is not giving an inch.
And all that is not going to decide the game, that’s just the sideshow.
Point guards will decide this one. Not those two men alone, but how the other team’s defense deals with them.
For the first three games, it was all Rajon Rondo. Then since the Magic went to more staggered double screens for Jameer Nelson, he started feeling comfortable enough to attack, and he has been the story as the Magic have won two in a row.
Stop Nelson and you stop the Magic. ESPN did the math for us (and the fantastic Eddie Rivera posted it for us): in the first three games, Nelson shot 38.2 percent, that jumped to 52.8 percent the last two games. More importantly, his points per possession (where he has the shot or assist, or turnover) jumped from 0.86 to 1.21 (know that basically one is the average).
The Celtics knew they had to adjust, so in Game 5 they started to send Paul Pierce in to help on the pick-and-roll, leaving Matt Barnes as the guy to beat them. He did in the first quarter, he hit a couple threes. Combine that with some foul trouble and the Celtics sort of abandoned that strategy.
They should go back to it tonight — Barnes was a 31 percent three-point shooter during the season. Granted, he has hit almost 38 percent in the playoffs, but this is going to a high-pressure, on the road situation. Make Barnes prove he can do it. If that doesn’t work, well, better have a Plan B.
The other Celtic defender that needs to step up in Kevin Garnett — he needs to be everywhere. His responsibilities are huge, but such is the role. He has to help inside, he has to have rotations and recover on shooters (especially his man Rashard Lewis). KG has to be part of stopping the pick and roll, because if the Celtics do that they stop the Magic attack.
Conversely, the Magic need to continue to hold Rajon Rondo in check. They have been physical with him the last couple of games, they have to continue to be without getting fouls. Rondo for his part needs to get back to pushing the pace — something the Celtics should be more comfortable doing at home (we say should, they have not always done that this season). The Celtics need a few easy buckets in transition.
They also need Garnett to get more points on Lewis — KG has the height advantage in the post, he needs to exploit it and when the double comes hit the open man. Garnett needs to go back to being the guy who abused Antawn Jamison last round, not the tentative guy from the conference finals. Some hot shooting from Ray Allen would solve a lot of problems as well.
But it still comes back to the point guards.
Tonight, one of the two guys is going to get loose. Nelson is going to continue to run the pick and roll with impunity, and the Magic will force a Game 7. Rondo will get loose in transition and hit some shots at the rim in the half court — maybe even draw a foul — and the Celtics will end this series and await the winner of the next one.
The big banging bodies in the paint will be fun to watch. But the point guard battle will decide this game. And the series.